2/21 - 2/24 Powerhouse Upper Midwest/GL's Winter Storm

[hawkstwelve]

A snippet from the NWS MPX AFD that covers a bit more about why models have been so consistent...

Tuesday through Friday... Confidence has continued to increase since
the previous discussion. Models have continued to show the same
pattern with little change in the large scale pattern. This has lead
to the continued increased confidence in a large winter system for
next week. The specifics of how much snow and what 6 hour QPF period
it all falls in is still to soon to tell. What is not to soon to tell
is that there is significant agreement between GEFS, EPS, CMC
ensembles as well as the GFS, ECMWF, GDPS, and more global models
that there will be a large system over the central CONUS in the
middle of next week. Why are the models are so confident? Well it is
down to just how the synoptic setup looks. Everything is rather
large scale with a 500 mb trough as well as a jet streak right on top
of us. The synoptic support from just about every critical level of
the troposphere is what has lead to this consistency. It will take
some major new inputs to get the models to move off of this and trend
a different direction.

[Bryan1117]

37 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

This one’s staying north. Hope we either get all rain or dry slotted at this point and can avoid any ice.

I have the same feeling about this one as well, right now this looks like an FSD to MSP special (once again)... @hawkstwelve and @james1976 are looking to reel in yet another one! 

[hawkstwelve]

Slight northward shift on the 18z GFS.

[Money]

Bigger area of fzr this run 

 

 

[Bellona]

So this will be two just to the south and one to the north in 3 weeks. Lovely.

[Cfweather]

2 hours ago, Bellona said:

So this will be two just to the south and one to the north in 3 weeks. Lovely.

It’s a little early to say that.

and it can go north all it wants if it means we don’t get freezing rain

 

[Iceresistance]

Someone has mentioned that this could cause a very nasty outbreak in Dixie Alley, it all starts on Wednesday at my location!

I know someone in UP Michigan. She's going to be blitzed by this.

[Money]

0z icon with a big shift south 

[hawkstwelve]

GFS trending weaker with the initial wave on Tuesday. Should help correct some of it's more outlandish solutions of total snowfall it was showing by the time all is said and done.

[Money]

GFS

 

 

[Bellona]

Not sure if that's a shift south on GFS or just expanding it. About a county shift in ice from 18z. Puts me back in the interesting zone at least.

[hawkstwelve]

Slight correction back south from the more northern 18z, especially on the eastern side.

[Money]

GEM

[Bellona]

Waterloo must get rocked with sleet on the GDPS. Only .6 snow and no ice. 

[hawkstwelve]

00z GEM also a shift south along the eastern flank vs it's 12z run.

[MKEstorm]

15 minutes ago, Bellona said:

Waterloo must get rocked with sleet on the GDPS. Only .6 snow and no ice. 

Ya, same with Milwaukee! Those 3 inches arrive in that first wave…then it’s a sleet fest! Yet the 0z GFS has my area for .50 ice! So, this is something to monitor for sure! It will be interesting to see what the EURO puts on the table.

 

 

[Money]

Ukie 

[MKEstorm]

5 minutes ago, Money said:

Ukie 

Ha 8.5 inches of snow

So far in the three main 0z models, one is giving me a lot of snow, one is giving me a lot of sleet…and the other is giving me a lot of ice!

[hawkstwelve]

00z GEFS with a nice improvement to a 10 inch mean for FSD. MSP is at a foot. Also a slight jump south vs 18z mean.

[hawkstwelve]

Euro looking like it might be coming in slightly to the south.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Enjoy your 1-2 feet of snow SoDak and Minnesota.

The Euro did not come further south.

[Tom]

0z Euro...man, what Beast for the Upper MW/Yoopers/N Woods...Cascade Mtn looks to do good if your riding the ICON/EURO/GGEM...

 

0z EPS...

[Madtown]

not getting excited, not getting excited,

[hawkstwelve]

[bud2380]

What a dream storm for those in the path. The area of snow is so large that even minor wobbles won’t make a difference. But the track has barely moved for days. It’s going to be a direct hit for basically all of SD and MN and the north half of WI

[Money]

MSP is looking golden 

S. WI will probably depend on how far north the low gets and how strong. Looks like euro is showing mainly snow but gfs is warmer aloft and more sleet 

[james1976]

Pretty awesome write up from MPX

The first wave will be primarily driven by lower level frontogenesis
as the lingering frontal boundary from Monday`s clipper system
tightens up and forms a band of snow on Tuesday. Currently, this is
more favored across southern Minnesota and Wisconsin, generally along
or north of I-90. This band will likely lead to several inches of
snow. There will be a brief break Tuesday night into Wednesday, but
then a second round of snow will develop as the main storm develops
to the southeast, and tracks across the region late Wednesday through
Thursday night. It is this second round of snow that would produce
the more widespread, heavy snowfall amounts across the region, and
when combined with the first band, ends up with incredible snowfall
totals over multiple days.

If you`re reading this discussion, then you are probably on the more
weather-savvy side compared to most people. And if you`re weather-
savvy, then you`re probably familiar with the ample weather sites
that show model data such as storm total snowfall accumulation. For
that reason, we figured it worth addressing the snow amount potential
in this discussion so here it goes.

From a probabilistic standpoint, some locations across the forecast
area have a greater than 50 percent chance of seeing at least 18
inches of snow over a 72hr window from Tuesday morning through
Thursday night. That`s incredible. The location will likely change,
so it`s not that important. What is important is that those
probabilities actually exist in the guidance, especially this far out
into the forecast. This lends some insight into the realistic totals
that we may see come Friday morning. Another noteworthy statistic is
that the lowest 5 percent of forecast (think low-end) still has
accumulating snow pretty much everywhere, and a heavier band of at
least several inches across the region. On the flip side, we won`t
dwell much on the 95 percent (think high-end), but it would indicate
that there is potential for some locations to see over two feet of
snow. Reality will likely fall somewhere in the middle, which is why
we don`t produce snowfall totals beyond 3 days into the future.

[Money]

Honestly wouldn’t surprise me to see this trend more north than what models are showing. Snow cover should be disappearing across IL and WI as well throughout the upcoming few days which should help things warm up more than what models are forecasting IMO 

[Money]

Not much change in the icon. Crushes msp again although low eventually looks a bit farther south 

[Money]

GFS is a bit stronger and south with the first wave. Drops 6-10 in minny and 3-5 across WI 

[Money]

Tuesday wave 

[Money]

GFS

 

 

0z

[hawkstwelve]

Slight tick south, especially from the 06z run. Highest total for FSD over the past four runs.

[hawkstwelve]

Further east trends.

[Money]

Icon at 120 has the low south of Chicago. GFS has it right over eastern WI

[CentralNebWeather]

7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Slight tick south, especially from the 06z run. Highest total for FSD over the past four runs.

Starts pressing south into Nebraska. 

[hawkstwelve]

12z GEM is a bit further north.

[Madtown]

too good to be true imo. coverage and amounts can only go down.

[CentralNebWeather]

What I find interesting on the Canadian model, the low is over SE Colorado then moves to KC, but puts done nothing. Sweet path typically for us. ICON and to some extent the GFS want to put snow down around some of the area. 

[gimmesnow]

Thanks for posting all these maps everyone. This has potential to be an amazing storm for me. I plan on going to Devil's Head Wednesday, spending the night because I'll probably be trapped there, then going to Cascade the next day. Really hope this works out, the snow this year has been terrible for almost the entire winter. Last storm here was mind blowingly amazing though, if it's even remotely close to that one I'm going to be really happy. Had the most fun with the last storm snowboarding than I've had in a long time.

[GDR]

31 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

What I find interesting on the Canadian model, the low is over SE Colorado then moves to KC, but puts done nothing. Sweet path typically for us. ICON and to some extent the GFS want to put snow down around some of the area. 

I thought you would be reeling this one in!

[Money]

GFS ensembles look south of 6z 

[CentralNebWeather]

12z GEFS 

[CentralNebWeather]

12z Ukie. 

[CentralNebWeather]

GFS, ICON, and UKIE have a line of snow down over me that may hopefully overproduce In coming runs. 

[jaster220]

On 2/17/2023 at 11:22 AM, Icewoz said:

Boring yet again for DTX

 

23 hours ago, uticasnow said:

Another snozzer for Southeast Michigan

Third year running of mostly standing on the sidelines watching the game. This looks like GHD-2 but displaced about 150 miles north. Doubtful south half of DTX gets into sig snow, but like Thur storm it could trend enough to escape a complete whiff. Long ways til all is said-n-done on this. Finally this pattern showing it's true potential, just half a state too far north.

[uticasnow]

Most likely will move south more....but we know how that goes

[Bellona]

The ice potential remains. Been quite a while since we have had an ice storm. Course it all may change!

[Money]

Euro is pretty much identical to 0z except maybe a tad lighter on the QPF 

[Money]

Euro 10:1