hawkstwelve Posted February 17 Report Share Posted February 17 A snippet from the NWS MPX AFD that covers a bit more about why models have been so consistent... Tuesday through Friday... Confidence has continued to increase since the previous discussion. Models have continued to show the same pattern with little change in the large scale pattern. This has lead to the continued increased confidence in a large winter system for next week. The specifics of how much snow and what 6 hour QPF period it all falls in is still to soon to tell. What is not to soon to tell is that there is significant agreement between GEFS, EPS, CMC ensembles as well as the GFS, ECMWF, GDPS, and more global models that there will be a large system over the central CONUS in the middle of next week. Why are the models are so confident? Well it is down to just how the synoptic setup looks. Everything is rather large scale with a 500 mb trough as well as a jet streak right on top of us. The synoptic support from just about every critical level of the troposphere is what has lead to this consistency. It will take some major new inputs to get the models to move off of this and trend a different direction. 5 Quote Weather station: https://sodakweather.com Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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