2/21 - 2/24 Powerhouse Upper Midwest/GL's Winter Storm

[Bellona]

Waterloo must get rocked with sleet on the GDPS. Only .6 snow and no ice. 

[MKEstorm]

15 minutes ago, Bellona said:

Waterloo must get rocked with sleet on the GDPS. Only .6 snow and no ice. 

Ya, same with Milwaukee! Those 3 inches arrive in that first wave…then it’s a sleet fest! Yet the 0z GFS has my area for .50 ice! So, this is something to monitor for sure! It will be interesting to see what the EURO puts on the table.

 

 

[Money]

Ukie 

[MKEstorm]

5 minutes ago, Money said:

Ukie 

Ha 8.5 inches of snow

So far in the three main 0z models, one is giving me a lot of snow, one is giving me a lot of sleet…and the other is giving me a lot of ice!

[OmahaSnowFan]

Enjoy your 1-2 feet of snow SoDak and Minnesota.

The Euro did not come further south.

[Tom]

0z Euro...man, what Beast for the Upper MW/Yoopers/N Woods...Cascade Mtn looks to do good if your riding the ICON/EURO/GGEM...

 

0z EPS...

[Madtown]

not getting excited, not getting excited,

[bud2380]

What a dream storm for those in the path. The area of snow is so large that even minor wobbles won’t make a difference. But the track has barely moved for days. It’s going to be a direct hit for basically all of SD and MN and the north half of WI

[Money]

MSP is looking golden 

S. WI will probably depend on how far north the low gets and how strong. Looks like euro is showing mainly snow but gfs is warmer aloft and more sleet 

[james1976]

Pretty awesome write up from MPX

The first wave will be primarily driven by lower level frontogenesis
as the lingering frontal boundary from Monday`s clipper system
tightens up and forms a band of snow on Tuesday. Currently, this is
more favored across southern Minnesota and Wisconsin, generally along
or north of I-90. This band will likely lead to several inches of
snow. There will be a brief break Tuesday night into Wednesday, but
then a second round of snow will develop as the main storm develops
to the southeast, and tracks across the region late Wednesday through
Thursday night. It is this second round of snow that would produce
the more widespread, heavy snowfall amounts across the region, and
when combined with the first band, ends up with incredible snowfall
totals over multiple days.

If you`re reading this discussion, then you are probably on the more
weather-savvy side compared to most people. And if you`re weather-
savvy, then you`re probably familiar with the ample weather sites
that show model data such as storm total snowfall accumulation. For
that reason, we figured it worth addressing the snow amount potential
in this discussion so here it goes.

From a probabilistic standpoint, some locations across the forecast
area have a greater than 50 percent chance of seeing at least 18
inches of snow over a 72hr window from Tuesday morning through
Thursday night. That`s incredible. The location will likely change,
so it`s not that important. What is important is that those
probabilities actually exist in the guidance, especially this far out
into the forecast. This lends some insight into the realistic totals
that we may see come Friday morning. Another noteworthy statistic is
that the lowest 5 percent of forecast (think low-end) still has
accumulating snow pretty much everywhere, and a heavier band of at
least several inches across the region. On the flip side, we won`t
dwell much on the 95 percent (think high-end), but it would indicate
that there is potential for some locations to see over two feet of
snow. Reality will likely fall somewhere in the middle, which is why
we don`t produce snowfall totals beyond 3 days into the future.

[Money]

Honestly wouldn’t surprise me to see this trend more north than what models are showing. Snow cover should be disappearing across IL and WI as well throughout the upcoming few days which should help things warm up more than what models are forecasting IMO 

[Money]

Not much change in the icon. Crushes msp again although low eventually looks a bit farther south 

[Money]

GFS is a bit stronger and south with the first wave. Drops 6-10 in minny and 3-5 across WI 

[Money]

Tuesday wave 

[Money]

GFS

 

 

0z

[Money]

Icon at 120 has the low south of Chicago. GFS has it right over eastern WI

[CentralNebWeather]

7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Slight tick south, especially from the 06z run. Highest total for FSD over the past four runs.

Starts pressing south into Nebraska. 

[Madtown]

too good to be true imo. coverage and amounts can only go down.

[CentralNebWeather]

What I find interesting on the Canadian model, the low is over SE Colorado then moves to KC, but puts done nothing. Sweet path typically for us. ICON and to some extent the GFS want to put snow down around some of the area. 

[gimmesnow]

Thanks for posting all these maps everyone. This has potential to be an amazing storm for me. I plan on going to Devil's Head Wednesday, spending the night because I'll probably be trapped there, then going to Cascade the next day. Really hope this works out, the snow this year has been terrible for almost the entire winter. Last storm here was mind blowingly amazing though, if it's even remotely close to that one I'm going to be really happy. Had the most fun with the last storm snowboarding than I've had in a long time.

[GDR]

31 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

What I find interesting on the Canadian model, the low is over SE Colorado then moves to KC, but puts done nothing. Sweet path typically for us. ICON and to some extent the GFS want to put snow down around some of the area. 

I thought you would be reeling this one in!

[Money]

GFS ensembles look south of 6z 

[CentralNebWeather]

12z GEFS 

[CentralNebWeather]

12z Ukie. 

[CentralNebWeather]

GFS, ICON, and UKIE have a line of snow down over me that may hopefully overproduce In coming runs. 

[jaster220]

On 2/17/2023 at 11:22 AM, Icewoz said:

Boring yet again for DTX

 

23 hours ago, uticasnow said:

Another snozzer for Southeast Michigan

Third year running of mostly standing on the sidelines watching the game. This looks like GHD-2 but displaced about 150 miles north. Doubtful south half of DTX gets into sig snow, but like Thur storm it could trend enough to escape a complete whiff. Long ways til all is said-n-done on this. Finally this pattern showing it's true potential, just half a state too far north.

[uticasnow]

Most likely will move south more....but we know how that goes

[Bellona]

The ice potential remains. Been quite a while since we have had an ice storm. Course it all may change!

[Money]

Euro is pretty much identical to 0z except maybe a tad lighter on the QPF 

[Money]

Euro 10:1

[Doinko]

2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z GEM is a bit further north.

If this works out for you how close will FSD be to breaking seasonal snowfall records?

[Iceresistance]

16 hours ago, MKEstorm said:

Ha 8.5 inches of snow

So far in the three main 0z models, one is giving me a lot of snow, one is giving me a lot of sleet…and the other is giving me a lot of ice!

UKMET Model only does the 10:1 ratio, the ratios in Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa, and the Dakotas are much higher, UP Michigan with a 20:1 ratio.

[Money]

La Crosse AFD

in all, lots of lift and ample saturation for pcpn. What falls
where and how much are the bigger questions.

PCPN TYPE: looks to start out as snow with warmer air pushing in
from the south Wed night bringing a wintry mix into the equation
across the south. Should swing back to snow in the south Thu morning
with snow continuing elsewhere.

HOW MUCH? definitely too early to tell, but this storm will benefit
from time and residence, with a prolonged period of snow over nearly
the same west-east swath. Where this sets up isn`t clear with
differences in the models and their ensemble members - with a fair
amount of shifting over the past few days. That said, all have a
similar flavor, running the main snow band from southern/central MN
to across northern/central WI. Current probabilities in both the
GEFS and EPS suggest a 50-70% chance for 8+ inches over the 2 days
for a chunk of the forecast area (currently favored over the north),
but only uses a 10:1 ratio. Actual ratios will likely be higher.
Deterministic GFS/EC output over their past few runs tack on several
inches to that 8+ potential. ECMWF EFI pushes 0.8 for snow Thu while
north-south running x-sections hint at a little -EPV that could
result in some enhanced banding. All in all, it looks like a lot of
snow for a rather large chunk of the region.

As for ice, the GFS and EC latest runs suggest over 1/4" would be
possible in the south, focused on Wed night as the warmer air starts
to surge in. Obviously where this falls is highly dependent on the
storm track, but it is another potential hazard to this storm.

WIND: let`s not forget the wind. Adding insult to injury, the
pressure gradient starts to tighten up Wed, not relaxing until later
Thu night with the exit east of the storm. EC ensemble members push
gusts into at least the lower 30s mph over the period. The GFS is a
tad higher. Depending on the water content of the expected snow,
blowing and drifting could/will be an issue.

OVERALL: this is setting up to be a high impact storm with
potentially a lot of snow, strong winds to blow it around, and even
a threat for ice. Impacts will be widespread. Now, where those
impacts are highest remains uncertain with wavering in the models
and the fact the storm is still days and days away. A lot can
change.

 

[Money]

A lot of AFD really ramping up the wording compared to the last day. Green Bay talking about a high event with wind a lot of snow etc 

[Money]

18z GEFS snowier and farther south compared to 12z. Lines up well with the 18z op gfs 

[MinnesotaSnow]

[Bellona]

I'm excited for you all up north, more concerned down here. We get that kind of ice and 30mph winds I might be happy I have a fireplace. 

[Icewoz]

Can’t wait for the hype in Detroit … for nothing. 

[uticasnow]

more than likely ice for north of Detoit

[Money]

0z icon came back SE from its previous runs 

[Money]

RGEM looks pretty far south with the first band through hr 84

[Money]

GFS through hr 84

[Money]

This has been very anti dramatic so far..models have been locked in for days now 

[Money]

GEM with 2” QPF here which is mostly sleet..

[james1976]

Im praying for that lull on Wednesday. I will be in Iowa Tuesday so I will miss the first round. But the big dog moves in late Wednesday. I wanna be up here for that so hoping I can race up 35 during the day and get here to the MN home before that moves in. This has the potential to be the biggest snowstorm in my life.

[james1976]

@hawkstwelve is the Euro showing a lull for southern MN during the day Wednesday?? Thank you in advance!

[Grizzcoat]

Good Luck to the those in my old stomping grounds (Twin Cities) !!!! Best chance in years to compete agst Halloween Storm of 1991. I was a senior in HS and drove my snowmobile with buddies down I-35 past the dome--- and around I-94 and back up around 694 to New Brighton--- it was nuts.   Here are Twin Cities  6 greatest snow events -- ( 1982 I was 9 and remember those back to back gems like it was yday-- jumped off the roof of a two story house with no issues -- snow depth was 37") Pretty cool I was there for the TOP 4.  

GOOD LUCK!!!  

   TOP SIX SNOWSTORMS       *                                      *
*    FOR THE TWIN CITIES      *                                      *
*    -------------------      *                                      *
*                     INCHES  *                                      *
*  1. OCT 31-NOV 3 1991 28.4  *                                      *
*  2. NOV 29-DEC 1 1985 21.1  *                                      *
*  3. JAN 22-23 1982 .. 20.0...NOTE CORRECTION NEEDED TO //NCDC-LCD//*
*  4. JAN 20-21 1982 .. 17.4  *                                      *
*  5. DEC 10-11 2010 .. 17.1  *                                      *
*  6. NOV 11-12 1940 .. 16.8  *                                      *

[Tom]

4 hours ago, james1976 said:

Im praying for that lull on Wednesday. I will be in Iowa Tuesday so I will miss the first round. But the big dog moves in late Wednesday. I wanna be up here for that so hoping I can race up 35 during the day and get here to the MN home before that moves in. This has the potential to be the biggest snowstorm in my life.

I'm rooting for all of you up there to reel in one of the biggest storms in recent history to cover such a dramatic portion of the upper MW/GL's region.  Holy friggin' smokes, this is really going to be one hellova fun time for you guys up there.

0z Euro...the consistency over the past few days in mind boggling...you don't see that quite often among all the global models...

 

 

 

0z CMCE...

 

0z EPS...

 

[Money]

GEFS continues to sink south and increase totals in the main band (10:1 ratios)

[gosaints]

Reel it harder Money.