2/21 - 2/24 Powerhouse Upper Midwest/GL's Winter Storm

[Tom]

The post President's Day major Winter Storm is shaping up to be one of the biggest snowstorms of the season for a huge swath of the Upper MW/Northwoods and N GL's region.  @Northland09 @hawkstwelve @Madtown @james1976 @MNTonka All of our MSP peeps look golden at this range but those on the southern border of MN into N IA and S WI could be in for a nasty ice/mix scenario.

Let's discuss this storms potential mid next week...

 

@CentralNebWeatherand @Bryan1117 @gabel23 OMA crew could get lucky again and remain all snow while those farther east get a "front-end" thump before the warm front pushes north.  The stinkin' -PNA is becoming a dagger for those of us farther south...how many times have we experienced "BAD TIMING"!  Ughh, not the winter for us this season...

 

0z EPS trending stronger with the -PNA....SER is going beast mode...early Spring break down in Florida anyone???

 

[Madtown]

well this would brighten moods here. all but closed the trails with this last rain storm. not getting hopes up, but it looks awesome as of now. see what it looks like 24hrs out. Plenty of vacancies as of now Tom. 

[Money]

6z GFS

[Tom]

8 minutes ago, Madtown said:

well this would brighten moods here. all but closed the trails with this last rain storm. not getting hopes up, but it looks awesome as of now. see what it looks like 24hrs out. Plenty of vacancies as of now Tom. 

Thanks man...this is just what the businesses need from nature up that way...been quite and warm for too long.  Things are going to turn around big time for the rest of this season.

[Money]

It’s amazing how remarkably consistent the models have been on this for the last 72 hours. We are within 120 hours now (of first band developing) and only two more days until we start getting into NAM range for it. 

[Clinton]

6z GFS and GEFS shift south, could the existing snow cover in Nebraska and Iowa help them land some more.

[hawkstwelve]

As mentioned, a nice jump on the 06z GFS. I was hoping we'd see this happen sooner or later. Too much northward trend across last night's model suite.

Was this the start of a reversal? Or simply a blip? 12z runs will be telling.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

I hadn’t really been watching this storm to closely as I was celebrating the last storm and clearing snow yesterday. Our forecast now has a 40% chance of snow Tuesday night and snow likely Wednesday. That southward shift must have been seen in the forecasts. More to track as we enjoy our new deep snowpack. Really enjoying how this winter has shaped up around here. 

[MIKEKC]

Okay, I'm going to reel this one south....the artic air is going to push harder and drive the storm down to KC! OR, we might be on the warm side and shoot into the 60's and 70's next Wednesday.... 

12z data, start your massive trend south...it's okay, you can give KC one legit snow storm this year. We appreciate all the beautiful rains, but, just one time, please. 

 

[tStacsh]

This is a classic icing set up somewhere.  Hopefully not here.  But right now, thats a very plausible scenario.  Ice storms are the worst.   

[Northland09]

I am so excited! Hoping this one doesn't disappoint! I made a bet with my sister in the fall that we'll be getting 70"+ of snowfall this year, so it best not fail me now . 

[tStacsh]

52 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

As mentioned, a nice jump on the 06z GFS. I was hoping we'd see this happen sooner or later. Too much northward trend across last night's model suite.

Was this the start of a reversal? Or simply a blip? 12z runs will be telling.

 

Battle of air masses.  Which one wins out?  Long way to go with this one.  It will flip flop hundreds miles I believe until the models get a better handle on the Arctic HP and how much the cold can bleed in.  

[Tom]

4 minutes ago, Northland09 said:

I am so excited! Hoping this one doesn't disappoint! I made a bet with my sister in the fall that we'll be getting 70"+ of snowfall this year, so it best not fail me now . 

What are you sitting at for the season?

[Northland09]

3 minutes ago, Tom said:

What are you sitting at for the season?

The last time I heard which was the end of January, we had beat the average snowfall in a season for MSP (which is 51.2") and we were sitting at 52.1". We've had a couple small little inch or so snow storms since then, so I'm guessing around 54" for the season right now? 

[hawkstwelve]

Haven't checked the NBM yet for this storm. Looked at the 13z run this morning... I don't think I've seen it show this much all winter. I think the highest it got during the large storm shortly after New Year's was around 7 inches or so.

I know the NWS weights their forecast heavily using the NBM so I guess it makes sense they are fairly bullish given how this looks paired with the ensembles. 

A trend gif is included at the end. You can see along with the increasing totals there is a hint of a southward shift in the recent run.

[sholomar]

People were actually talking about this one at work on Wednesday already. Was waiting for a thread to pop up about it.  They were however totally unaware a snowstorm was going on to the south of us in Nebraska, which caused some of our inputs coming up from Tennessee to get delayed.

[james1976]

MPX already talking about the potential of a foot or more in some areas

[hawkstwelve]

12z GFS looking a bit stronger with the initial push on Tuesday.

[Icewoz]

Boring yet again for DTX

[hawkstwelve]

12z GFS with another almost 30 inch run for FSD.

[tStacsh]

3 minutes ago, Icewoz said:

Boring yet again for DTX

long way to go.  That is some serious cold air above us next week trying to work in.  Hope you like ice.  

[james1976]

This thing is huge. Geez. Idk what the official snow depth is at MSP but it has to be 10 or so inches yet. If these model runs pan out idk where road crews are gonna put all this snow.

[hawkstwelve]

12z GEM looking snowier and also closer to that 30 inch mark.

Crazy we are seeing multiple runs of multiple models showing over two feet of snow here. Usually it's just the GFS spitting out stuff like this.

[Money]

GGEM has 1 inch QPF of all sleet or freezing rain here 

 

yikes 

[hawkstwelve]

Wider look at 12z GEM totals.

[Money]

Temps are in the 20-24 range in the sleet area 

[MIKEKC]

While everyone north of KC has the white gold next week, KC get dry slotted and shoots into the mid 70's next Wednesday. 

 

[Tom]

12z GEFS did tick south some compared to 0z...

[Tom]

Just now, MIKEKC said:

While everyone north of KC has the white gold next week, KC get dry slotted and shoots into the mid 70's next Wednesday. 

 

That sounds nice actually...LOL, I was just taking out the garbage in full sun and the higher sun angle is already melting the sheet of ice on the concrete that was unsalted.  It so dang bright from the sun reflecting off the snow pack!

[Money]

Ukie 

[Clinton]

11 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

While everyone north of KC has the white gold next week, KC get dry slotted and shoots into the mid 70's next Wednesday. 

 

Almost time to start getting the pool ready.  Time to move on to thunderstorms. 

[uticasnow]

Another snozzer for Southeast Michigan

[Money]

First band on Euro 

[bud2380]

Man this storm looks like it means business.  

[james1976]

If you're in central MN you have plenty of wiggle room.

[Money]

Euro showing that band of ice at hr 132

[Money]

This looks nasty 

[Money]

Euro QPF and snow map 

 

[Tom]

12z Euro...

[hawkstwelve]

Trend gif of past three Euro runs ending Thursday evening.

[Money]

How does the ice map look? Has to be some hefty totals 

[hawkstwelve]

4 minutes ago, Money said:

How does the ice map look? Has to be some hefty totals 

 

[Money]

Amazing how consistent the models have been yet with a big storm somewhere. They have been showing it since at least 240 hours out 

[jcwxguy]

Hopefully it can shift south some so more of us can get hit 

[james1976]

29" in the MN backyard

[tStacsh]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

 

yeesh

[hawkstwelve]

Trend of past three EPS runs.

[Madtown]

Will not get sucked in, will not get sucked in will not get sucked in.......21"!!!!! Come on!!! 

[Tony]

Where the Baroclinic Zone sets up will be a key player with this storm. Ice is definitely going to be a major problem for someone. At least something to track before March comes roaring in.

[OmahaSnowFan]

This one’s staying north. Hope we either get all rain or dry slotted at this point and can avoid any ice.