bud2380 Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 It's been mostly me posting about this topic, but all models are on board for a 1-3" type system to come through to start off our weekend. Here's the latest GFS. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018111412/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 Canadian continues to be stronger and linger the snow longer. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2018111412/102/snku_acc.us_mw.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 How was last night's Euro?Glad you started a thread. Small system but this early in the season its exciting and encouraging moving forward. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 NAM and GFS pretty lame around here for this clipper. Will be interesting to see the Euro this afternoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 Today’s Euro 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 Yeah prolly 1-3 event for some of us Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 Today’s Euro 48BCCDAA-E468-4524-9D99-0BE2AB9B146F.pngIf Lincoln even gets measurable snow out of this I'll be surprised. This is a rogue run for the Euro as every previous run of every model (besides GEM) has had dry air winning out. 00Z Euro wasn't trash but has the heavier stuff farther South. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 If Lincoln even gets measurable snow out of this I'll be surprised. This is a rogue run for the Euro as every previous run of every model (besides GEM) has had dry air winning out. 00Z Euro wasn't trash but has the heavier stuff farther South.Euro shows the better hit south of I-80. Looks like a general 1-3". Not many other models showing this much around my part of Nebraska. Who knows? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 NAM continues to be the furthest north. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018111418/078/snku_acc.us_mw.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 18Z NAM basically splits into 2 pieces over Nebraska and Iowa and goes Northeast and Southwest through Colorado. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 18Z NAM basically splits into 2 pieces over Nebraska and Iowa and goes Northeast and Southwest through Colorado.That's been both NAM and GFS in a nutshell the past day or two. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 GFS also further east than the Euro, but further south than the NAM. Still has the heaviest qpf in central Iowa, but there is some rain/snow mix going on limiting accums. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018111418/078/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 18z Canadian http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_18/accum/SN_000-084_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 NAM continues to be the furthest north. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018111418/078/snku_acc.us_mw.pngThats 4"+ for my area. l'll take it. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 The Canadian is smoking too much of something 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 The Canadian is smoking too much of somethingWell it is legal there now so it wouldn't surprise me! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Well it is legal there now so it wouldn't surprise me! LOL Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 15, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 NAM is still hanging north. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018111500/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 15, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 3K NAM even further north. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2018111500/060/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 GFS South. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Canadian staying the course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 The NAM seems to be on its own. The timing looks to be mostly before sunrise, so yet another night snowfall. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Canadian staying the course. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Suppressed in Nov. Good thing I got this to play with in the cold this year! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Looks like a 1-3" event in the central axis. Given its the first decent snow, wouldn't be surprised to see WWA if trends continue. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Ukie is similar to the NAM, maybe even a touch N. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Well it is legal there now so it wouldn't surprise me!Well, as Cross-Canadian Ragweed would say, "Smoke it if you got it". :lol: Too funny. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Suppressed in Nov. Good thing I got this to play with in the cold this year!That's pretty neat! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 The S trend with 00Z GFS/CMC seems now to be an outlier compared to recent 06Z runs. The NAM is hot right now inside 72 hours. It's only Mid-NOV but has/will have snowed appreciably (1-2"+) in all quadrants outside Central IA in the last 10 days. Not a good signal ( for C.IA) as I do think this pattern is going to repeat itself throughout the winter. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Looks like gfs is Agreeing with a nam. Swing and miss for central ia. Looks like the cubs in the playoffs! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 DMX leaning closer to GFS/Euro with 2-3" in N IA and borderline headlines. Although the AFD came out before the 6z GFS which has trended north. Regardless...next week looks above normal and dry so it will melt immediately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 DMX leaning closer to GFS/Euro with 2-3" in N IA and borderline headlines. Although the AFD came out before the 6z GFS which has trended north. Regardless...next week looks above normal and dry so it will melt immediately.As it should in November lol. Anyways, I’ve got 2” in my point in Hiawatha here. Sounds reasonable based on recent guidance. NAM is still way north and stronger however. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 FV3 treats SMI best of the bunch. Others mostly miss or precip fades due to whatever? Thermals, or just a weakening system, Idk Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 15, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 NAM still much further north than other models. The Euro shifted further east and slightly north overnight, but just seems to handle the system differently. The Euro looks like the snow sags south through the day Saturday where the NAM moves more west to east. Still pretty significant differences on placement here. The NAM handled the last system a week ago pretty well though, the Euro was off base, so I'm not ready to discount the NAM. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018111512/048/snku_acc.us_mw.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Gfs way weaker and more in line with nam now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 15, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 GFS has the heaviest QPF still into parts of central IA, but surface temps once again limiting accumulations there. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018111512/060/qpf_acc.us_mw.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018111512/060/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 The nam has been rock solid so far within 72 hrs 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 15, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Canadian shifting towards the NAM. If the NAM ends up doing good this winter, it's going to be throw me off completely. I'm so used to just immediately discounting it. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2018111512/066/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 15, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 UK actually moved a tick south from overnight, but it was maybe even further north than the NAM last night. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/accum/PA_000-072_0000.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.