Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Facts don't care about your feelingsWhen was i disagreeing about facts? lol. You wouldn't be acting this way if you were in town lol. 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 FV3 is way compact. Basically just barely misses me. Gonna be some sharp cutoffs with this storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 ICON model literally looks like a strong clipper and dives southwest of nebraska then northeast. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Climo is against a significant storm for really any of us outside of MN. It’s just reality. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Climo is against a significant storm for really any of us outside of MN. It’s just reality.Climo has been wrong already this winter 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 When was i disagreeing about facts? lol. You wouldn't be acting this way if you were in town lol.I don't see how I'd say anything different. The truth is oftentimes when GFS screws Omaha Omaha gets screwed. Happened all last year. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Climo is against a significant storm for really any of us outside of MN. It’s just reality.Climo also says places like St Louis shouldn’t be leading the Midwest in snowfall, ever. Throw climo out the window this winter. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Climo also says places like St Louis shouldn’t be leading the Midwest in snowfall, ever. Throw climo out the window this winter.And that Southeast Lincoln shouldn't have 4x the snowfall of St. Paul in mid-November. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 You can’t ever throw climo out. Just don’t be upset if the storm decides to law down the snow from C NE thru C MN. I fail to see how a 990mb low, even this year, cuts further SE than IA. The only way I see that as a viable solution is if the low ends up trending much weaker. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 And that Southeast Lincoln shouldn't have 4x the snowfall of St. Paul in mid-November.Where’s the dislike button? Haha 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 You can’t ever throw climo out. Just don’t be upset if the storm decides to law down the snow from C NE thru C MN. I fail to see how a 990mb low, even this year, cuts further SE than IA. The only way I see that as a viable solution is if the low ends up trending much weaker.It’s usually also not this cold in November The key is gonna be how quick the cold air can move in after the first storm passes. If it can sag south quicker than this thing could def bomb out farther south 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Idk why I’m even tracking this so closely as Chicago has no shot at getting anything other than rain. I think Neb is sitting well, esp with thing sagging SE right now, perfect timing for it to make its NW jump last minute and bomb out right over top of Eastern Nebraska. Hope we can get something like this storm out here in Chicago soon! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 You can’t ever throw climo out. Just don’t be upset if the storm decides to law down the snow from C NE thru C MN. I fail to see how a 990mb low, even this year, cuts further SE than IA. The only way I see that as a viable solution is if the low ends up trending much weaker.Trust me, I won’t be upset if you’re right. All I’m saying is climo has already been dissed several times this season. I expect that to continue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Early take from MPX: At this point this is asystem to keep an eye on as there is still uncertainty in the pathit will take, but for now it`s favoring a southern solution. Thisis a complicated situation given the split flow pattern with asubtropical jet across the far southern CONUS. Tend to agree thata southern solution for the storm will prevail. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Early take from MPX: At this point this is asystem to keep an eye on as there is still uncertainty in the pathit will take, but for now it`s favoring a southern solution. Thisis a complicated situation given the split flow pattern with asubtropical jet across the far southern CONUS. Tend to agree thata southern solution for the storm will prevail.DVN really staying away from giving too many takes, besides letting it be know there is a chance for snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Local TV forecaster is forecasting an inch and a low impact storm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 You can’t ever throw climo out. Just don’t be upset if the storm decides to law down the snow from C NE thru C MN. I fail to see how a 990mb low, even this year, cuts further SE than IA. The only way I see that as a viable solution is if the low ends up trending much weaker. 'tis the season for magic.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Local TV forecaster is forecasting an inch and a low impact storm sorry, but seems dumb from this far out to discount any solution at this point, let alone decide on it's strength . You couldn't pay me to watch a local forecaster for a storm call. Maybe within 6 hrs..but then only maybe 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Local TV forecaster is forecasting an inch and a low impact stormWho? That's shitty this far out. Back when I forecasted on social media, I refused to forecast any amounts farther than 48hrs out. I feel like he should have done the same but I guess ratings are cool too. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 sorry, but seems dumb from this far out to discount any solution at this point, let alone decide on it's strength . You couldn't pay me to watch a local forecaster for a storm call. Maybe within 6 hrs..but then only maybeYeah not a fan of his forecast plus I think he trying to down play it. He hasn't had the best track record so far this year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Who? That's shitty this far out. Back when I forecasted on social media, I refused to forecast any amounts farther than 48hrs out. I feel like he should have done the same but I guess ratings are cool too.Rusty lord he focused mainly on the euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Rusty lord he focused mainly on the euro.Never been a fan of Rusty Lord. He has a ton of hot takes regarding weather and he does it all for views. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Rusty lord he focused mainly on the euro.makes sense for crusty 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Who? That's shitty this far out. Back when I forecasted on social media, I refused to forecast any amounts farther than 48hrs out. I feel like he should have done the same but I guess ratings are cool too. Got a new avatar for ya based on your station acro. You can be Colonel KL(i)NK Nobody's gonna tell you how Lincoln avoids screw-jobs! :lol: 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Never been a fan of Rusty Lord. He has a ton of hot takes regarding weather and he does it all for views.Definitely agree plus he does live streams now. Last time I tuned in pointed out other model runs he completely down played it. But the last round of energy he said maybe an inch then changed it to flurries. Then 80 turned into a nightmare after the game. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Never been a fan of Rusty Lord. He has a ton of hot takes regarding weather and he does it all for views.Huh? I think he's probably one of the most conservative forecasters out there lol Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Certain patterns/setups are more likely to produce a result that goes against climo, as we have already seen unfold this season. Looking at the overall setup for this particular storm, the system ejects from the KS/OK latitude (not deep into Texas), there is not a whole lot of antecedent cold and there is some ridging out ahead. Basically I don't see a way that the main snow swath comes too far south. Where it gets more interesting for folks around IL/IN/lower MI is whether it slows down and sort of stalls for a while as some model runs have hinted at. Could get some lighter snows in those areas (possible exception downwind of lakes where there could be more) but the swath of heaviest synoptic snows should stay farther north/west. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 0z Icon hits Nebraska and Kansas Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 0z Icon hits Nebraska and KansasCentral or eastern Nebraska? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Central or eastern Nebraska? very hard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Eastern and south east Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Huh? I think he's probably one of the most conservative forecasters out there lolHe's conservative, yeah, but that doesn't mean forecast amounts 5 days out. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 ICON Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 A little south for my liking but man that's alot of moisture. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 A little south for my liking but man that's alot of moisture. looks jack perfect for yby Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 GFS crushes most of W Ia Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Looks a little more south and east Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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