bud2380 Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 Canadian looks closer to the NAM. Much further north than the GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 FV3 well north of regular GFS as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 FV3 well north of regular GFS as well. But about 60 miles further south than it's last run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 FV3 well north of regular GFS as well.A shift south, but a nice run. Hopefully the Euro stays put. Would hate to see this shift so far south that we don’t get anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 Ukie looks similar to the Canadian and NAM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 Ukie looks like it came N , slightly W. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 Fv3 18z had 13 here now 4. Definitely more south. Post ukmet if anyone has it Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"Â For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :Â https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018112300/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png There's some NAM luv. Bringing the purples to SWMI. Now to see if indeed we have a 0z NAM-Euro dynamic duo Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)  Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"  2021-22 = 35.6"    Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 South trend is def real the last few runs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 South trend is def real the last few runsNo doubt. Storm is still a ways away though, so we’ll see if it continues or comes back north a little. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 That upper low to the north is killing us. The FV3 finally caved and now pokes it much farther south. I hope the models have that feature wrong. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"   '21-22: 27.1"   '20-21: 52.5"   '19-20: 36.2"    '18-19: 50.2"    '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 wow...shut out up here! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 00z UK 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"Â Â Â '21-22: 27.1"Â Â Â '20-21: 52.5"Â Â Â '19-20: 36.2"Â Â Â Â '18-19: 50.2"Â Â Â Â '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 Come on Euro.. keep the dream alive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 Yea whoever said the UK came north was wrong. Barely anything here with that Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"Â For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :Â https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 FV3 still gives Des Moines metro and south 10 to 15. Basically a solid hit from St. Joe, Mo to Milwaukee Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 Yea whoever said the UK came north was wrong. Barely anything here with thatNorth compared to ICON I guess lol Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 That above came south from 18z. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"Â For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :Â https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 That above came south from 18z. south and weaker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 Whoa! @ Ukie for SMI Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)Â Â Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)Â Â Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9Â Dec: 7.5Â Jan: 31.7 Feb:Â 6.0 Mar: 4.3Â Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2"Â (Harrison):Â 2023-24 = 53.1"Â Avg = 45.0"Â (KDTW):Â 2022-23 = 33.5"Â Â 2021-22 = 35.6"Â Â Â Â Avg = 49.7"Â (KRMY):Â 2020-21 = 36.2"Â Â 2019-20 = 48.0"Â Â 2018-19 =Â 56.1"Â Â 2017-18 =Â 68.3"Â Â Â 2016-17 =Â 52"Â Â Â 2015-16 =Â 57.4"Â Â Â 2014-15 =Â 55.3"Â Â Â 2013-14 =Â 100.6"Â (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)Â Â 2012-13 =Â 47.2"Â Â Â 2011-12 =Â 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 Looping the 0z NAM couldn't help but notice it basically has a 995 mb SLP for OMA and brings it NE at a steady state. Gone are the trends of deepening this closer to 990 mb as it heads towards the Lakes Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)Â Â Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)Â Â Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9Â Dec: 7.5Â Jan: 31.7 Feb:Â 6.0 Mar: 4.3Â Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2"Â (Harrison):Â 2023-24 = 53.1"Â Avg = 45.0"Â (KDTW):Â 2022-23 = 33.5"Â Â 2021-22 = 35.6"Â Â Â Â Avg = 49.7"Â (KRMY):Â 2020-21 = 36.2"Â Â 2019-20 = 48.0"Â Â 2018-19 =Â 56.1"Â Â 2017-18 =Â 68.3"Â Â Â 2016-17 =Â 52"Â Â Â 2015-16 =Â 57.4"Â Â Â 2014-15 =Â 55.3"Â Â Â 2013-14 =Â 100.6"Â (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)Â Â 2012-13 =Â 47.2"Â Â Â 2011-12 =Â 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 That upper low to the north is killing us. The FV3 finally caved and now pokes it much farther south. I hope the models have that feature wrong.Yup. Stronger and slower with it which kills us  Be kind of funny to get missed three times already to the south. Usually don’t see that in Nov Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 No doubt. Storm is still a ways away though, so we’ll see if it continues or comes back north a little.Yeah I’ve seen storms before correct way too far south only to move back north closer to the event. Just need that northern stream system to be weaker and faster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 Yup. Stronger and slower with it which kills us Be kind of funny to get missed three times already to the south. Usually don’t see that in Nov Yeah, almost never remember a strong storm that didn't trend north of SMI during Nov and/or Dec. One notable exception was the Dec 2000 bliz which took a very similar track to where this is going. Eerily similar and just a few weeks earlier on the calendar Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)  Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"  2021-22 = 35.6"    Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 Yea whoever said the UK came north was wrong. Barely anything here with thatcame N from last 2 runs--last nights run had bulk of precip shield S of CHI town Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 Euro gonna trend south with rest of the models  996 L for northern stream system much farther south than last run with it. Low is already south compared to 0z last at 48 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 Always nice to read those words in your AFDÂ Â .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Thursday)Issued at 315 PM EST Thu Nov 22 2018Our main focus with this forecast has to do with the potentialwinter storm for late Sunday into early Monday. Â Â After a break in the weather late Sat and early Sun, our mainweather maker will move in potentially as early as Sunday morning. Alot of uncertainty remains with the system with regards to thedetail of the timing, track, and p-types. The models all have thegeneral synoptic pattern well in hand having a jet streak diving infrom the nrn Rockies, and cutting off a low over the Plains beforelifting NE.The uncertainty then lies with how much does the low close off andthen how does it track to the NE. The quickest of the solutions isthe GFS, closing it off later and moving it through quicker as aresult. More of a consensus is centered around more of a closedupper low, which is slower and deeper with the associated sfc low.This would bring more of a textbook snow event to the area with thewarm advection aloft ahead of the system, and deformation zone withthe upper low moving through the area.The latest model trends have shifted the band of heaviest snowfurther SE to Srn Lower, and change from the 00z runs where theheavier snow was across Nrn Lower with our area seeing rain and somemixed pcpn. The latest trends could have some rain initiallychanging to mixed pcpn, then mainly snow for much of the event. Itis too early to pin down these details at this time, but we willclosely monitor the latest trends.No matter how the Sun/Mon system evolves, it looks like we will seeupper troughing and colder air become established for the first halfof next week. The upper jet expecting to be south of the area andshort waves moving through, will allow for some impactful lakeeffect to be possible. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)Â Â Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)Â Â Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9Â Dec: 7.5Â Jan: 31.7 Feb:Â 6.0 Mar: 4.3Â Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2"Â (Harrison):Â 2023-24 = 53.1"Â Avg = 45.0"Â (KDTW):Â 2022-23 = 33.5"Â Â 2021-22 = 35.6"Â Â Â Â Avg = 49.7"Â (KRMY):Â 2020-21 = 36.2"Â Â 2019-20 = 48.0"Â Â 2018-19 =Â 56.1"Â Â 2017-18 =Â 68.3"Â Â Â 2016-17 =Â 52"Â Â Â 2015-16 =Â 57.4"Â Â Â 2014-15 =Â 55.3"Â Â Â 2013-14 =Â 100.6"Â (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)Â Â 2012-13 =Â 47.2"Â Â Â 2011-12 =Â 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 Euro south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 Euro way south very interesting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 2-3" Omaha/Lincoln Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 8-10 kc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 Pretty terrible trends at 00z for significant snowfall in E IA. I never thought we'd see much from this, but I thought it would've been a miss to the NW, not the SE. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8")Â (1/1: 6.4") Â Â Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 2-3 not bad with gusty winds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 Chi town smoke job still possible 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 EURO looks like the UKIE from last night. lol. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 That euro map is infuriating to say the least. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4")   Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 Dang, from a nice storm to possibly nothing. Knew the runs had been good for too long. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 Yep, sorry Iowa folks....you just got Nebraska'd lol. Time to throw the towel in! Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"Â For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :Â https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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