11/24 - 11/26 Winter Storm

[gabel23]

Huge fat flakes!!

[jcwxguy]

Huge fat flakes!!

awesome

[East Dubzz]

Lol I see the 12k NAM has me right around a foot of snow. Hilarious.

[bud2380]

New GFs with 12.4” for Iowa city

[gabel23]

Lol I see the 12k NAM has me right around a foot of snow. Hilarious.

I have snow starting to accumulate and it wasn’t supposed to start until 2 am. I expect changes to occur further north along the blizzard warning; Something is not right because there was no model showing what I’m getting right now. Either this storm is coming in stronger or the thermals were all wrong.

[bud2380]

Ukie appears to be in line with all the other models tonight as well.

[jaster220]

Ukie appears to be in line with all the other models tonight as well.

 

All of which models?? Images pls

[CentralNebWeather]

Just started snowing like crazy here but still 36 degrees. Switched over in the last 5 minutes.

[Madtown]

looks like nam, 3knam gfs, gfs fv3, and canadian all have me around 6in on the 0z run!

[jaster220]

0z HRDPS holds strong with the 10" thumping here in SMI. HRRR also is a smack-down paste job.

[Niko]

Too many models...who do you trust is the real question. I'd go w the Euro and Nam.

[jcwxguy]

I have snow starting to accumulate and it wasn’t supposed to start until 2 am. I expect changes to occur further north along the blizzard warning; Something is not right because there was no model showing what I’m getting right now. Either this storm is coming in stronger or the thermals were all wrong.

hope your right

[Niko]

0z HRDPS holds strong with the 10" thumping here in SMI. HRRR also is a smack-down paste job.

Where Amigo....any specific locales

[jaster220]

Such a compacted system. Usually they cut a little for SMI and bring the temps up above freezing. Doesn’t look like this one will.

 

You're correct saying "usually" but this is a unique storm in a unique month, in a unique season. Are you watching the SR models at all? Some are quite nice eye-candy fwiw. I love the thumper storms that I remember from my youth. They seemed more impactful. Took peeps by surprise more, especially in that era

[jaster220]

looks like nam, 3knam gfs, gfs fv3, and canadian all have me around 6in on the 0z run!

 

Precip shield has expanded a county or 2 north on most models. Good for you guys on the NW side of this

[Niko]

Such a compacted system. Usually they cut a little for SMI and bring the temps up above freezing. Doesn’t look like this one will.

I think this storm will bring down a lot of cold air during the height of the event. Any rain will quickly go over to heavy snow, especially burbs of DTW

[bud2380]

All of which models?? Images pls

I think I’ve posted just about every model that’s run tonight. So by all other models I mean every 00z model that’s run so far. NAM, 3k nam, GFS, new GFS, RGEM, GGEM, RAP, HRRR.

[jaster220]

Where Amigo....any specific locales

 

Not sure if the deeper stuff quite reaches to yby or not? Hard to see without a zoom in opt

 

[gabel23]

hope your right

Don’t you live near aurora or York?! You not receiving snow?

[jaster220]

I think I’ve posted just about every model that’s run tonight. So by all other models I mean every 00z model that’s run so far. NAM, 3k nam, GFS, new GFS, RGEM, GGEM, RAP, HRRR.

 

Fair enough back your way, but out east here there's like an entire state diff between say the HRRR and the GFS wrt placement of the heavy stripe. Thus my request for map images if you have any?

[Niko]

Not sure if the deeper stuff quite reaches to yby or not? Hard to see without a zoom in opt

 

I am hanging by a hair from getting really dumped here. A bit south more and look-out. You are looking golden amigo, if I am seeing it correctly.

[jcwxguy]

Don’t you live near aurora or York?! You not receiving snow?

used to several years ago, live in Gretna now

[clintbeed1993]

I can report in Aurora that snow is mixing in now.  Changeover hasn't happened but when it does it's going to be snowing like hell.  NWS grid forecast is still saying all rain up until 3 AM. That's definitely gunna be wrong.

[jaster220]

In my opinion, the two were vastly different in nature, but the OMA to DTW swath doesn't have as many analog storms to chose from I suppose..

 

 

12/11/2000 and 11/21/2015 are both on the CIPS analog list.

[jaster220]

I am hanging by a hair from getting really dumped here. A bit south more and look-out. You are looking golden amigo, if I am seeing it correctly.

 

I "should" be if the models with the more southern extent of precip win out over the GFS/GEM and to some extent the latest over-pumped NAM models

[jaster220]

@ Iowa peeps

 

Hearing gusts during heaviest snow may reach 55-60 mph and DVN should be going Bliz Warned all CWA. Can anyone confirm?

[jcwxguy]

Hrrr has slowly been trending less for Lincoln/omaha

[jaster220]

994 mb closed iso

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s4/pmsl.gif

[Niko]

For this time of the year, this is a pretty intense Winterstorm.

[Stormhunter87]

I need to stop reading but I can't lol. Dropped to 42 here in Papillon but love hearing the early change over out west.

[jcwxguy]

994 mb closed iso

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s4/pmsl.gif

supposed to be 991 on some models

[CentralNebWeather]

Have dropped fast to 34 and now heavy snow that is already accumulating. Wind keeps increasing also

[Stormhunter87]

Based on rap and hrrr out west should not be changing yet.

[CentralNebWeather]

Based on rap and hrrr out west should not be changing yet.

You are correct. Now is when current conditions and radars are the way to go.

[jaster220]

supposed to be 991 on some models

 

Ground reports showing at least 993 if not a 992 inside that iso. Many models had it more in the upper 990's. This isn't going due north and bombing so it's not really critical at this point, just nice to see a legit storm in our sub and about a month earlier than our usual earliest chance for a big dog

[Niko]

Lets see what the Euro spits out tanite

[clintbeed1993]

Switch over just happened in Aurora.  Huge flakes and already accumulating.  4 hours ahead of forecasted.

[Stormhunter87]

You are correct. Now is when current conditions and radars are the way to go.

Definitely currently radar is not showing the change over. Well at least my app one isn't

[Niko]

[hlcater]

supposed to be 991 on some models

Not right there though. Right? I personally never saw that, but I wasn’t really looking very close.