gabel23 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Huge fat flakes!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Huge fat flakes!! awesome Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Lol I see the 12k NAM has me right around a foot of snow. Hilarious. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 New GFs with 12.4” for Iowa city Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Lol I see the 12k NAM has me right around a foot of snow. Hilarious.I have snow starting to accumulate and it wasn’t supposed to start until 2 am. I expect changes to occur further north along the blizzard warning; Something is not right because there was no model showing what I’m getting right now. Either this storm is coming in stronger or the thermals were all wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Ukie appears to be in line with all the other models tonight as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Ukie appears to be in line with all the other models tonight as well. All of which models?? Images pls Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just started snowing like crazy here but still 36 degrees. Switched over in the last 5 minutes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 looks like nam, 3knam gfs, gfs fv3, and canadian all have me around 6in on the 0z run! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 0z HRDPS holds strong with the 10" thumping here in SMI. HRRR also is a smack-down paste job. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Too many models...who do you trust is the real question. I'd go w the Euro and Nam. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 I have snow starting to accumulate and it wasn’t supposed to start until 2 am. I expect changes to occur further north along the blizzard warning; Something is not right because there was no model showing what I’m getting right now. Either this storm is coming in stronger or the thermals were all wrong. hope your right Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 0z HRDPS holds strong with the 10" thumping here in SMI. HRRR also is a smack-down paste job.Where Amigo....any specific locales Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Such a compacted system. Usually they cut a little for SMI and bring the temps up above freezing. Doesn’t look like this one will. You're correct saying "usually" but this is a unique storm in a unique month, in a unique season. Are you watching the SR models at all? Some are quite nice eye-candy fwiw. I love the thumper storms that I remember from my youth. They seemed more impactful. Took peeps by surprise more, especially in that era Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 looks like nam, 3knam gfs, gfs fv3, and canadian all have me around 6in on the 0z run! Precip shield has expanded a county or 2 north on most models. Good for you guys on the NW side of this Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Such a compacted system. Usually they cut a little for SMI and bring the temps up above freezing. Doesn’t look like this one will.I think this storm will bring down a lot of cold air during the height of the event. Any rain will quickly go over to heavy snow, especially burbs of DTW Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 All of which models?? Images plsI think I’ve posted just about every model that’s run tonight. So by all other models I mean every 00z model that’s run so far. NAM, 3k nam, GFS, new GFS, RGEM, GGEM, RAP, HRRR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Where Amigo....any specific locales Not sure if the deeper stuff quite reaches to yby or not? Hard to see without a zoom in opt Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 hope your rightDon’t you live near aurora or York?! You not receiving snow? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 I think I’ve posted just about every model that’s run tonight. So by all other models I mean every 00z model that’s run so far. NAM, 3k nam, GFS, new GFS, RGEM, GGEM, RAP, HRRR. Fair enough back your way, but out east here there's like an entire state diff between say the HRRR and the GFS wrt placement of the heavy stripe. Thus my request for map images if you have any? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Not sure if the deeper stuff quite reaches to yby or not? Hard to see without a zoom in opt I am hanging by a hair from getting really dumped here. A bit south more and look-out. You are looking golden amigo, if I am seeing it correctly. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Don’t you live near aurora or York?! You not receiving snow?used to several years ago, live in Gretna now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 I can report in Aurora that snow is mixing in now. Changeover hasn't happened but when it does it's going to be snowing like hell. NWS grid forecast is still saying all rain up until 3 AM. That's definitely gunna be wrong. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 In my opinion, the two were vastly different in nature, but the OMA to DTW swath doesn't have as many analog storms to chose from I suppose.. 12/11/2000 and 11/21/2015 are both on the CIPS analog list. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 I am hanging by a hair from getting really dumped here. A bit south more and look-out. You are looking golden amigo, if I am seeing it correctly. I "should" be if the models with the more southern extent of precip win out over the GFS/GEM and to some extent the latest over-pumped NAM models 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 @ Iowa peeps Hearing gusts during heaviest snow may reach 55-60 mph and DVN should be going Bliz Warned all CWA. Can anyone confirm? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Hrrr has slowly been trending less for Lincoln/omaha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 994 mb closed iso http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s4/pmsl.gif Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 For this time of the year, this is a pretty intense Winterstorm. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 I need to stop reading but I can't lol. Dropped to 42 here in Papillon but love hearing the early change over out west. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 994 mb closed iso http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s4/pmsl.gif supposed to be 991 on some models Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Have dropped fast to 34 and now heavy snow that is already accumulating. Wind keeps increasing also Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Based on rap and hrrr out west should not be changing yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Based on rap and hrrr out west should not be changing yet.You are correct. Now is when current conditions and radars are the way to go. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 supposed to be 991 on some models Ground reports showing at least 993 if not a 992 inside that iso. Many models had it more in the upper 990's. This isn't going due north and bombing so it's not really critical at this point, just nice to see a legit storm in our sub and about a month earlier than our usual earliest chance for a big dog 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Lets see what the Euro spits out tanite Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Switch over just happened in Aurora. Huge flakes and already accumulating. 4 hours ahead of forecasted. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 You are correct. Now is when current conditions and radars are the way to go.Definitely currently radar is not showing the change over. Well at least my app one isn't Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 supposed to be 991 on some modelsNot right there though. Right? I personally never saw that, but I wasn’t really looking very close. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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