Minny_Weather Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 I'm punting on this one. Every time I give up hope storms come back here on models so maybe it'll work again here. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 GEM with a 983 in S/C MN and I’m getting rained on. What a waste. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Models are very confused. I'll definitely feel more confident by Friday...even though, my area gets a soaker 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Wow.....thats all i can say. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 If it's any consolation... GFS is showing a strong storm 10 days out! Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Past Sat. the models are all jacked up. Punt on these and try again tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Won’t get any better than the Fv3 up this way. West and stronger. Can’t wait to check the Euro in the morning and see a Chicago smash job. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 28, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 FV3 with quite a storm for NE Nebraska, SE South Dakota, & NW Iowa. Definitely expecting some rain showers here over the weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 FV3 with quite a storm for NE Nebraska, SE South Dakota, & NW Iowa. Definitely expecting some rain showers here over the weekend.It's quicker with the changeover here too. Has the rain/snow line hitting here Saturday morning. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Not a bad run on the fv3 although still want the change over sooner. That low track is to perfect to waste on rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Candain also a bit further south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Icon by far the best run. Really puts a punch with that second storm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Temperatures are something that no model will be able to really nail down and we'll need to wait and see. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Euro at hr 72 looks like it's going to go neg tilt sooner, maybe, Row.row row your boat Hr 96 low is at Nebraska city Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 UKMET continues WAY South- near the Boot heel of Misery at hr96 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 UKMET continues WAY South- near the Boot heel of Misery at hr96 looks too warm though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 And the ultimate ******* award goes toooooo the EURO. Big fat hole of nothing over Omaha. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Euro not bad for the W Burbs of the Twin Cities. Should make St Paul Storm get a little more excited and I will be in that neck of the woods..... MSP from the EURO-SAT 06Z 01-DEC -3.2 2.0 1015 85 13 0.00 554 542 SAT 12Z 01-DEC -2.9 2.7 1010 86 16 0.00 550 543 SAT 18Z 01-DEC 0.5 1.3 1002 74 57 0.01 543 542 SUN 00Z 02-DEC 1.1 -4.0 998 91 81 0.49 538 539 SUN 06Z 02-DEC 1.1 -2.9 998 87 88 0.06 537 539 SUN 12Z 02-DEC 0.9 -4.1 1000 89 94 0.08 537 537 SUN 18Z 02-DEC 0.7 -4.7 1004 85 90 0.03 538 535 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 its a new day tomorrow. hopefully some better trends as well! Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Craig should love the 06Z NAM at 84Hr--- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 How's the Euro look for N IA? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 How's the Euro look for N IA?mainly NW IA. Craigs map above shows it. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 MPX seems all in ; DMX has no clue. OAX low confidence but see 1-4" For the weekend system, plenty of spread and uncertainty stillexists, though we are seeing models beginning to narrow in on asolution, with confidence increasing that at least parts of the MPXarea will be dealing with precipitation. All the guidance showsthis system taking on a negative tilt as it comes out onto thesouthern high Plains on Friday, with an intensification Friday nightbefore it starts occluding on Saturday. The source of the problemswith resolving this forecast can be found up in Canada. 500 heightanomalies across Canada basically show a broad ridge being in placefrom coast to coast. This ridge will cause this system to both stallout as it is moving north, then move almost due east. It`s the howfar north that stall happens, then how quickly it moves eastwhere the uncertainty remains. However the spread is diminishingwith the Canadian the farthest north, the GFS is farthestsoutheast (though now shows snow reaching up to the I-90 corridor),with the ECMWF in between, though closer to the Canadian.Beside slowing the system down, the higher heights across Canadawill cut the arctic air off from the system this weekend, whichleads to a warmer system and a high deal of uncertainty with p-typesas we will likely deal with some sort of mix to all snow scenario,though if this system were to get as far north as the Canadian, itwould be mainly rain. At this point given the strength of the ridgeto the north, we do not find the northern solution from the Canadianvery plausible, with a more southern track likely, which putsthe MPX area in a more snow situation. However, how much is prettytough to predict with any certainty. GEFS snow plumes (with 10:1ratio) range anywhere from 0 to 13 inches at MSP. Though whenlooking at the probability of getting 6 or more inches on the GEFS,there`s a healthy swath of probabilities between 50% and 75% acrosssouthern MN into western WI. This indicates there`s a pretty goodchance we`ll see a swath of 6-10" of snow when all is said and done,it`s just a matter of where. Given all of the spread that stillexists, stayed with the blended forecast, but we will beginmentioning the heavy snow threat within the HWO. DMX-Bottom line, while confidence is low in the details, it does lookincreasingly likely that Iowa will be impacted to some degree bya winter storm this weekend. OAX-Confidence quite low at this point trying to pin down precip type,placement Friday night through Saturday evening as well as overallsnow amounts.Nevertheless, ECM 24hr advertise snow accumulations from 1" to 3"ending 00Z Monday while the GFS generally has 2" or so. MeanwhileGFS Cobb indicates close to 4" at Norfolk and an inch or so atOmaha/Lincoln. Of course amounts will change if timing of cold airadvection deviates from current thinking.As for precip type, Cobb timing transition through the day onSaturday looks reasonable with gradual change fromliquid/freezing/frozen north to south. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Thinking the jackpot, if you can call it that for our viewers (none I know of in the Metropolis between O'neill and Valentine NE) seems to be in the Gosaints area or St Paul Storm. System a few days ago trended S- I think this one trends N. Just my .02. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Both gfs and gfs FV3 trended south from 0z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 It’s going to be a soaker for a lot of us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 00z EPS likes the N NE/SD to Minny special... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 2nd wave is looking weaker. Our only chance may be from this first system. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Euro not bad for the W Burbs of the Twin Cities. Should make St Paul Storm get a little more excited and I will be in that neck of the woods..... MSP from the EURO-SAT 06Z 01-DEC -3.2 2.0 1015 85 13 0.00 554 542 SAT 12Z 01-DEC -2.9 2.7 1010 86 16 0.00 550 543 SAT 18Z 01-DEC 0.5 1.3 1002 74 57 0.01 543 542 SUN 00Z 02-DEC 1.1 -4.0 998 91 81 0.49 538 539 SUN 06Z 02-DEC 1.1 -2.9 998 87 88 0.06 537 539 SUN 12Z 02-DEC 0.9 -4.1 1000 89 94 0.08 537 537 SUN 18Z 02-DEC 0.7 -4.7 1004 85 90 0.03 538 535 Thanks for posting this. I’d take ~6” and run with it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 28, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Going just off the GFS and FV3, I’m actually not far away from some decent snows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Hastings, NE take on the storm. Either way the most favored location for heavy accumulating snowappears at this time to be across northern Nebraska into southernSouth Dakota where it would not be surprising to see 6-12 inchamounts. However, the overall southward shift in the forecastmodels over the last 24 hrs now puts our Nebraska counties in playfor possibly seeing several inches of snow in what could be aprolonged snow event from Friday night through Sunday morning.This will likely be a major winter storm for portions of thecentral plains this weekend and we will continue to monitor it`strack and strength in the days ahead to see how much of ourforecast area ends up being impacted by this storm system. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Punting good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Nam looks south this run and colder Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Nam looks south this run and colderNam has to be on crack. It's still snowing after this too. The low from hour 78 to hour 84 jumps back to the west in central Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 I think the NAM is on the right track. This storm in this part of the cycle should produce for Nebraska and the Northern half of Iowa. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Norfolk with 16". Why am I not surprised. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 I am worried that my storm Monday night may not have enough moisture, but that hasn't been a problem so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 That is a massive change in the 12z NAM. But I'll at this point I'll believe it when I see it 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Nam has to be on crack. It's still snowing after this too. The low from hour 78 to hour 84 jumps back to the west in central Iowa.Icon did something similar on yesterday's run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 28, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 That’s got to be the oddest track for a storm I’ve ever seen. From SW Missouri, to West central Missouri, to south central Missouri, to north central Missouri, to NE missouri, to SE Iowa, then back to south central Iowa. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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