PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[TT-SEA]

SEA is at -2.6 the month... but interestingly the second half of the month has been slightly warmer than normal at +0.3 after being at almost -5 for the first half of the month.   

During the first half of the month there were 0 days above normal.   But during the second half of the month there have been 8 days above normal including 5 days at 60+.

[TacomaWx]

Cool light pillar sunrise 

[MossMan]

Cool looking sky this morning. Snow is on the horizon! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA is at -2.6 the month... but interestingly the second half of the month has been slightly warmer than normal at +0.3 after being at almost -5 for the first half of the month.   

During the first half of the month there were 0 days above normal.   But during the second half of the month there have been 8 days above normal including 5 days at 60+.

Different world down here. Our biggest daily departures were last weekend. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem’s month to date and then still a fair amount of snow around this morning. Currently 35 and cloudy after an early morning low of 32.

Edited March 30, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Blizzard777]

12 hours ago, T-Town said:

Nice sunset tonight. 

Day 8 of working in yard taking advantage of this beautiful weather and getting backyard ready for evening cocktail time!  Shirt off yesterday  in fact….was really nice (62* and sunny). 
Beautiful shot T-Town 

[T-Town]

58 minutes ago, Blizzard777 said:

Day 8 of working in yard taking advantage of this beautiful weather and getting backyard ready for evening cocktail time!  Shirt off yesterday  in fact….was really nice (62* and sunny). 
Beautiful shot T-Town 

Looks like a great spot to enjoy a frosty beverage as a reward for all that work!

[seattleweatherguy]

20 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Can't access forum on my computer now... only on phone.   Anyone else have same issue?

Been having that issue for quite awhile now

[Phil]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Salem’s month to date and then still a fair amount of snow around this morning. Currently 35 and cloudy after an early morning low of 32.

Consistency!

[AlTahoe]

This footage is incredible. 

 

[AlTahoe]

kold is still possible! 

Looks like Tahoe City will set a new all time March record for lowest Maximum. They are currently at 34.4F when the old record was 35.74F back in 1958. This will be their first new monthly record of any kind since Nov 1995

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

kold is still possible! 

Looks like Tahoe City will set a new all time March record for lowest Maximum. They are currently at 34.4F when the old record was 35.74F back in 1958. This will be their first new monthly record of any kind since Nov 1995

Crater Lake NP currently has a monthly mean of 19.9, looks like they will shatter their March record which appears to be 21.9 from 2006 (!). 

They are now at 177 inches of snow, they may get a bit more before the end of the month, but will likely end up shy of the March record of 194". 

[TT-SEA]

System early next week is back on the 12Z GFS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

System early next week is back on the 12Z GFS.

Was just going to mention this. Goes pretty far south of you though. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Last night Mark Nelsen was really hyping the upcoming pattern change and talking about potential 70s by later next week. Seems like the trend is starting to move in the opposite direction. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Easter weekend is still looking decent from a fair weather fans perspective. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Easter weekend is still looking decent from a fair weather fans perspective. 

Was going to mention that the GFS still gets in range of nice weather by later next week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like we will end March with a mean of approximately 36.5. Which is 7.5F cooler than last March, and a -5.6 departure. It's also 0.7F cooler than March 1951 was at the park, we'll see where their data ends up, but my location is usually pretty similar to the park. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Was going to mention that the GFS still gets in range of nice weather by later next week.

But Easter looks somewhat wet, especially in W. Washington. 

Edited March 30, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

But Easter looks somewhat wet, especially in W. Washingotn. 

That is splitting hairs at 10 days out.  Potential for nice weather is there.   And the 12Z GEM agrees in a totally different way and is more favorable for western WA.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

These are my stats for the month so far. I have the precip data separately, but haven’t entered it in yet. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think that mid range could go either way, that broad trough in the GOA could also dig right over us.

[TT-SEA]

@SilverFallsAndrew I am the weenie for looking at the big picture rather than the specific timing of a rain band shown on the GFS at 10 days out?   I think its reversed. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z GFS brings back the N/S gradient, looks generally wet and cool in W. Washington, not as much down this way. Seems the models are trending cooler and wetter overall though. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

12z GFS brings back the N/S gradient, looks generally wet and cool in W. Washington, not as much down this way. Seems the models are trending cooler and wetter overall though. 

Details after day 10 are sort of meaningless on operational runs... particularly when the pattern appears to be changing.   There will be significant volatility.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SLE is currently running at their 9th coldest March to date since 1892, will definitely be the coldest since 1985, but will likely slip back to at least 10th. Still pretty impressive. Given 1985 is the only March in the last 40 years in the top 10. 

[ShawniganLake]

Clear blue skies again the morning, but the wind direction has flipped.  Breezy SW this morning after 2 days of gusty NE winds.  Yesterday was the first day over 60F here this spring. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Clear blue skies again the morning, but the wind direction has flipped.  Breezy SW this morning after 2 days of gusty NE winds.  Yesterday was the first day over 60F here this spring. 

Breezy and sunny here this morning as well... onshore flow ramping up as closed ULL over CA opens up into a broad trough as it moves east.  ECMWF shows the SW wind getting stronger as the day goes on.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the 12Z GEFS agrees with the overall pattern by next weekend with some sort of ridging over us.

[Slushy Inch]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

FWIW... the 12Z GEFS agrees with the overall pattern by next weekend with some sort of ridging over us.

Definitely a chance of ridging. How strong and how conducive for warmth remains to be seen.

[Slushy Inch]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

FWIW... the 12Z GEFS agrees with the overall pattern by next weekend with some sort of ridging over us.

Ridge has got a little stronger in last two runs.

[Slushy Inch]

Nice warm signal.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Last night Mark Nelsen was really hyping the upcoming pattern change and talking about potential 70s by later next week. Seems like the trend is starting to move in the opposite direction. 

Hopefully it goes just as well as his forecast for this week 🫠

[Cascadia_Wx]

Evening started out clear with a gorgeous sunset, but quickly became a mild and cloudy night. Warmest of the year so far for some places. Low of only 46 at PDX, 44 here.

Should put a dent in some of those cold March numbers. Although I see the south valley still managed 30s. 

Thick overcast with some drizzle in spots and 48 now.

[MossMan]

Not seeing much in the way of spring signs here in Skykomish! 

Edited March 30, 2023 by MossMan

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, MossMan said:

Not seeing much in the way of spring signs here in Skykomish! 

I’m starting to see more trees bloom. But leaves seem pretty slow to come out.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow per 12Z ECMWF... noticed this is more snow than the 00Z run for Randy which comes in a c-zone up there late Sunday night.   Less snow for my area though which is probably related to more snow for Randy.  Not sure how much this means for Andrew.

[Deweydog]

Happy Opening Day 2023 everybuddy!

[Cascadia_Wx]

Definitely some better trends on the 12z Euro. Baby steps.

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful day here so far... low clouds looked like there were coming in fast earlier but just fell apart leaving a mostly sunny sky.   Wind seems to have died down a little as well.   Currently 54 in North Bend.