PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is dry from Tuesday through Easter Sunday.    And even Monday is partly sunny and basically dry.     Very strange to have these long dry periods in the spring.

[ShawniganLake]

20 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Happy Opening Day 2023 everybuddy!

Blue Jays and Mariners in the ALCS this year!  

[TT-SEA]

Satellite shows areas of thicker low clouds to the north and south but relatively broken in between.  At least for now.   

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS is definitely more stout with the ridging next weekend than its 00Z run.  

[fubario]

36 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is dry from Tuesday through Easter Sunday.    And even Monday is partly sunny and basically dry.     Very strange to have these long dry periods in the spring.

dry

[Phil]

12z EPS definitely on team Andrew in the LR.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

12z EPS definitely on team Andrew in the LR.

Ahhh yes... still not finished but there is another trough by day 12 or 13.    Need rain Phil.   We need rain. 

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Ahhh yes... still not finished but there is another trough by day 12 or 13.    Need rain Phil.   We need rain. 

Interestingly, it’s a move that resembles the current pattern. Which is good news for the SW US but pretty dry for BC/WA.

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

12z EPS definitely on team Andrew in the LR.

Ridging definitely had a more transitory look at the end of the 12z Euro compared to the 00z. Would be nice to see that offshore trough nudge a little closer to the coast and give us a wet pattern. Especially for our friends up north  

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is dry from Tuesday through Easter Sunday.    And even Monday is partly sunny and basically dry.     Very strange to have these long dry periods in the spring.

Yeah, I am boarderline ready to panic

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Ridging definitely had a more transitory look at the end of the 12z Euro compared to the 00z. Would be nice to see that offshore trough nudge a little closer to the coast and give us a wet pattern. Especially for our friends up north  

The way the pattern is setting up doesn’t look favorable for positive precipitation departures up north, from what I can tell? At least not in a sustained way.

FWIW, the fact the NPAC circulation appears resistant to leaving the -NPMM/-PDO waveform suggests to me this could be a bonafide intradecadal “cold phase” type signature developing, independently from ENSO (as high amplitude PDO/PMM signatures tend to be).

+ENSO and -NPMM would be a fascinating combination, not very common nowadays.

[Cold Snap]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is dry from Tuesday through Easter Sunday.    And even Monday is partly sunny and basically dry.     Very strange to have these long dry periods in the spring.

Yeah though it’s been nice to have these dry periods and I’m definitely enjoying this spring more than last spring but it would be nice to get at least some rain so things don’t end up getting too dry especially if we are heading into another dry and torchy summer.

[TT-SEA]

15 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Yeah, I am boarderline ready to panic

Obviously a very dry April is a bad deal.  

April and May are a pretty important time of the year for moisture.   Ideally we would get some ridges and some troughs and decent soaking rains.   Too much of either sucks.

Dry periods are much more enjoyable after signficant rain.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

The way the pattern is setting up doesn’t look favorable for positive precipitation departures up north, from what I can tell? At least not in a sustained way.

FWIW, the fact the NPAC circulation appears resistant to leaving the -NPMM/-PDO waveform suggests to me this could be a bonafide intradecadal “cold phase” type signature developing, independently from ENSO (as high amplitude PDO/PMM signatures tend to be).

+ENSO and -NPMM would be a fascinating combination, not very common nowadays.

That would be nice. I’m sure Western WA will catch up on precip eventually. It’s not like they were in a perma-drought in past “cold phases”. Would be swell if we could keep the -PDO around for a few years or more. Seems like the last sustained intradecadal cold phase type pattern we had was in 2007-12, although I’m sure this would be different in some ways.

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Yeah though it’s been nice to have these dry periods and I’m definitely enjoying this spring more than last spring but it would be nice to get at least some rain so things don’t end up getting too dry especially if we are heading into another dry and torchy summer.

Last March was warm and dry. This one has been very cool and also wet, at least down here. Last spring didn’t start getting really troughy until the second week of April. General troughy pattern lasted about two months or so then it was off to the torches.

Edited March 30, 2023 by Cascadia_Wx

[Phil]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

That would be nice. I’m sure Western WA will catch up on precip eventually. It’s not like they were in a perma-drought in past “cold phases”. Would be swell if we could keep the -PDO around for a few years or more. Seems like the last sustained intradecadal cold phase type pattern we had was in 2007-12, although I’m sure this would be different in some ways.

I’m not sure they’ll catch up in numbers but that doesn’t mean soil moisture won’t end up higher than recent years if the weather pattern is improved.

The “cold phase” (IE: -NPMM component of PDO, not PDO alone) is actually associated with an overall reduction in annual precipitation and its seasonality in the PNW region, especially for coastal BC/WA. Declines are essentially 100% focused in the cold season, which outweighs the much smaller increases during the warm season. But if there’s more cloud cover/pacific influence in the pattern, that may be sufficient to produce positive soil moisture departures during the driest months of the year.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty nice late March day... 56 in North Bend but only 49 at SEA.    This is sort of like a weak marine push summer day when it's warmer away from the water out here protected from the sea breeze.    The next 3 days should be colder out here than at SEA.

[Phil]

OT but holy moly @ that 12z ECMWF run. Has super outbreak written all over it for central states.

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m not sure they’ll catch up in numbers but that doesn’t mean soil moisture won’t end up higher than recent years if the weather pattern is improved.

The “cold phase” (IE: -NPMM component of PDO, not PDO alone) is actually associated with an overall reduction in annual precipitation and its seasonality in the PNW region, especially for coastal BC/WA. Declines are essentially 100% focused in the cold season, which outweighs the much smaller increases during the warm season. But if there’s more cloud cover/pacific influence in the pattern, that may be sufficient to produce positive soil moisture departures during the driest months of the year.

Makes sense. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not sure if this was posted. Looks like all the models have the early week energy. 

[Front Ranger]

5 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Was just going to mention this. Goes pretty far south of you though. 

April lowland snow = annual occurrence now.

[TT-SEA]

Since that c-zone lifted north of my area one week ago tomorrow night... the only precip here has been some very light rain for 20 minutes on Sunday evening.    And at this point it looks like starting Monday afternoon it might be dry again next week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

WOW

 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

April lowland snow = annual occurrence now.

This set up looks much less impressive or long-lasting in my area compared to the snow we had last April.   Not sure we will get anything.   We basically had snow on the ground for a week last April because it kept snowing every night.   Farther south it looks more impressive.

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This set up looks much less impressive or long-lasting in my area compared to the snow we had last April.   Not sure we will get anything.   We basically had snow on the ground for a week last April because it kept snowing every night.   Farther south it looks more impressive.

I’m still hoping for an inch!! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I’m still hoping for an inch!! 

How did you do in early April 2012?

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I’m still hoping for an inch!! 

You have the ECMWF in your corner... should be golden.  

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

How did you do in early April 2012?

I don’t remember unfortunately and I didn’t get my first iPhone until June of 2012 so I don’t have my picture archives that I use to look back on lol! June 4th 2012 (first picture of 35,793 photos I have on my phone) does show a cloudy day however!  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I mean there is really no analog for April 2022. So yeah, this weekend won't measure up. This is a more run of the mill cold early April trough. Potential to be a once in a decade type event, but that's probably the ceiling. 

[Timmy]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I mean there is really no analog for April 2022. So yeah, this weekend won't measure up. This is a more run of the mill cold early April trough. Potential to be a once in a decade type event, but that's probably the ceiling. 

How much do you think you will get ?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Timmy said:

How much do you think you will get ?

I'm going to go with 3-5" total. I don't think we will get as much as last weekend, and the airmass will be slightly warmer so I doubt we see much accumulation during the day as we did last week. But it's largely precip dependent, and if that Monday night energy ends up being a direct hit, that could escalate things. 

[MWG]

WSW for +2500'  We may see some flakes falling Sunday and Monday.

[Blizzard777]

6 hours ago, T-Town said:

Looks like a great spot to enjoy a frosty beverage as a reward for all that work!

Not the beautiful view you have but this does in a pinch!   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the Oregon Cascades could get up to 4' of snow with this thing. SCORE.

[flya00]

According to WUnderground it's 68F in Oliver BC. That's at 1000 ft ASL. Usually don't hit peak temps until 5PM-ish so we'll see if we can hit 70F. Currently here in Kelowna it's 61F. Clear Skies across the Okanagan.

[TT-SEA]

32 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I don’t remember unfortunately and I didn’t get my first iPhone until June of 2012 so I don’t have my picture archives that I use to look back on lol! June 4th 2012 (first picture of 35,793 photos I have on my phone) does show a cloudy day however!  

June 2012 sort of sucked... but July through the middle of October was about as nice as it gets.

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS looks lovely for Easter weekend.   Maybe finally a weekend without snow for Andrew.

[Slushy Inch]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS looks lovely for Easter weekend.   Maybe finally a weekend without snow for Andrew.

Upper 60s at least.

[Slushy Inch]

70s! Just three days early for Seattle.

[flya00]

Measuring 73F in Oliver now. Might be a station error, but it feels like it outside.