HighlandExperience Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 Tomorrow is looking pretty interesting up here again. We will see A18BF5B6-2BAF-4735-85DA-847E9F6510EB.pngLooks similar to what it showed last night down here. Did not amount to much. Just flakes flying! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 You always start posting stats as a wet period is ending, and a drier one is about to begin. Like clockwork. Works better for the narrative that way. But no, it's not BS for me to point out that the WRCC maps incorporate more than two stations.That is why I look at the actual WRCC station data. Lots of them This was in response to Jesse mocking Randy. And his area is running wetter than normal for the last month... just a fact. And I did want to do a post on the final numbers locally for 2018. The data is finally updated. It was another wet year... another fact. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 I think Jesse is just jealous. We should all be recognizing both the wet and dry areas... its the reality. Or the people in the northern half of western WA and southern BC will just keep saying its really wet... and not give a flying crap what is happening in SW WA and Oregon. I would gladly give everyone currently in the minus for rainfall half of what I have received since the second week of September. It has been quite wet. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 12Z ECMWF is a little more bullish with lowland snow tomorrow: I thought the 850’s were rising by tomorrow? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 I thought the 850’s were rising by tomorrow? Offshore flow increases... that can offset warmer 850mb temps for a little while. 850mb temps are warming up by early tomorrow morning though... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 Will be a good test Euro vs mm5 for hood canal. Euro says a little snow and mm5 says no. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 Thanks. I like actual stats... highlights the difference and its interesting. SEA is +.11 for the water year and PDX is -3.38 And its even drier to the south. What we need is a pattern that focuses heavy rain on SW WA and Oregon. The folks to the north in BC and on the Olympic Peninsula are actually waterlogged. And its been pretty much normal for the rest of the northern half of western WA. Here you go. These stats support the WRCC maps. Sand Point: -.88" for the water yearOLM: -2.88" for the water year Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 Clear skies and 31F here. The fact that we will likely see clear skies this evening will probably help us start off pretty cold tomorrow morning 43 and partly cloudy in North Bend right now... must be a decent SW breeze there. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 I would gladly give everyone currently in the minus for rainfall half of what I have received since the second week of September. It has been quite wet.Looks like your area has been pretty close to average for the water year to date. Hence my joke earlier. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 Offshore flow increases... that can offset warmer 850mb temps for a little while. 850mb temps are warming up by early tomorrow morning though... Looks like some toasty 850’s around Phil’s place! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 Here you go. These stats support the WRCC maps. Sand Point: -.88" for the water yearOLM: -2.88" for the water year I have made no claim about OLM southward. I am not disputing the drier than normal departures down there. Its a fact. The northern half of western WA has been very close to normal or above normal for the water year. Southern BC has been really wet. There is a distinct north-south gradient. Again. As usual. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 That is why I look at the actual WRCC station data. Lots of them This was in response to Jesse mocking Randy. And his area is running wetter than normal for the last month... just a fact. And I did want to do a post on the final numbers locally for 2018. The data is finally updated. It was another wet year... another fact. It was a little wetter than normal for some areas from about your point north. Not comparable to the previous 4 years, though. For that area, or for the region as a whole. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 I would gladly give everyone currently in the minus for rainfall half of what I have received since the second week of September. It has been quite wet. You are also going through the first fall/winter in a wetter micro-climate. It's been drier than normal over that period at your old place. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 Looks like your area has been pretty close to average for the water year to date. Hence my joke earlier. The nearest active station to him (Arlington) stopped updating in the middle of December and is still missing almost half the month. So the maps probably incorporate that data as being below normal. September - November is updated for Arlington and it was exactly 2.00 inches above normal. I know the last week of December and the first week of January was very wet up there. So it makes sense that his area is waterlogged right now and he would know that way better than you because he is living it every day. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 I have made no claim about OLM southward. I am not disputing the drier than normal departures down there. Its a fact. The northern half of western WA has been very close to normal or above normal for the water year. Southern BC has been really wet. There is a distinct north-south gradient. Again. As usual. Seattle WFO is further north than SEA, yet recently you've only been citing SEA. Strange... Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 It was a little wetter than normal for some areas from about your point north. Not comparable to the previous 4 years, though. For that area, or for the region as a whole. Yeah... between 5-15 inches above normal for 2018 for foothill areas east of I-5 from Seattle northward. Certainly not a dry year up here in God's country. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 The nearest active station to him (Arlington) stopped updating in the middle of December and is still missing almost half the month. So the maps probably incorporate that data as being below normal. September - November is updated for Arlington and it was exactly 2.00 inches above normal. I know the last week of December and the first week of January was very wet up there. So it makes sense that his area is waterlogged right now and he would know that way better than you because he is living it every day. Yeah I don’t think it’s been quite that dry around my old area, Lake Goodwin is running at or just slightly above normal water level it looked like when I stopped by yesterday. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 Seattle WFO is further north than SEA, yet recently you've only been citing SEA. Strange... You are right Jared... and even WFO SEA is within an inch of normal for the water year. More persistent rain shadow there of course... given the overall pattern this fall and early winter. But even so... just slightly drier there. Still close to normal. Scary stuff! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 WOw Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just looking at the rain year so far (10/1 to present) there was a very persistent period of dry weather in mid-October, then again in mid November then again in early December. Each of those lasted about 7-10 days and now it looks like we may be heading into another several day dry break. Which is why 95% of Oregon and Washington have deficits for the rain year to date and will likely keep falling behind.. True we did have some dry periods in general but they weren’t that dry for me and for most the areas just north of Seattle. They didn’t feel like the typical big dry ridging. There were several days within those overal dry periods where we had systems come through and create a convergence just north of seattle while everyone else stayed dry. Typically with a big ridge everyone is dry and we either have clear sunny days the whole day or inversions. I get what you are saying and I agree with you but something just feels different about this nino and it might just be that it feels like a weak nino almost nuetral season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 Saw a big puddle near my house the other day. Crazy to think that those cheesy WRCC maps show my area below normal for the season to date when that is clear evidence it has been really wet. <_> 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 Draw a line from Hoquiam to Mount Rainier. From that line northward... there are no water issues at all and its gets seriously wet as you go north and west. The Olympic Peninsula and southern BC have been extremely wet. From that line southward... its been drier than normal which continues an annoying trend from 2018. Here is the latest drought monitor update: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 Saw a big puddle near my house the other day. Crazy to think that those cheesy WRCC maps show my area below normal for the season to date when that is clear evidence it has been really wet. <_> You are SO jealous of the northern areas. You just cannot let us report on our actual conditions without mocking us. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 Draw a line from Hoquiam to Mount Rainier. From that line northward... there are no water issues at all and its gets seriously wet as you go north and west. The Olympic Peninsula and southern BC have been extremely wet. From that line southward... its been drier than normal which continues an annoying trend from 2018. Tim, do you realize all of this stress on your part has mostly been in response to a comment stating that MossMan’s area has been near average for the water year to date? Which is factually correct. No one said he was in a drought up there. No need for strawmen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 WOw Time to put the boat in the water! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 Yeah... between 5-15 inches above normal for 2018 for foothill areas east of I-5 from Seattle northward. Certainly not a dry year up here in God's country. Many of those areas average 10"+ of rain/month in the wet season. 5-15" above normal for the year is pedestrian. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 Time to put the boat in the water! Watch out for an inversion! Although the season starts waning by the last week of January. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 Pow day on Mt Hood! Can’t wait to go on Wednesday. The one great thing about every cold airmass. Even if there isn’t snow or cold in the lowlands, it’s going to be a great snow day on Hood. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 You are SO jealous of the northern areas. You just cannot let us report on our actual conditions without mocking us. You and your lawyer have been mocking the drought non-stop and seem to be flaunting around a get out of jail free card. Turnabout is fair play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 Tim, do you realize all of this stress on your part has mostly been in response to a comment stating that MossMan’s area has been near average for the water year to date? Which is factually correct. No one said he was in a drought up there. No need for strawmen. Actually that is not where you started. He just said that its been really wet and it would be nice to dry out a little. You do realize how wet its been up there the last two weeks right? His comment was perfectly valid. No need to mock him because his comment makes you more anxious about missing out on all the heavy rain down there. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 With no precip today I will end the first week of January with a -1.59" departure. We have had some crazy dry Januaries before (1985), this will not rank up with those ones, but still looks like it could be around 50% of normal. The only good news is snowpack while not great is not in the disaster range we have seen during some of all time dud winters. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 You are right Jared... and even WFO SEA is within an inch of normal for the water year. More persistent rain shadow there of course... given the overall pattern this fall and early winter. But even so... just slightly drier there. Still close to normal. Scary stuff! Yes, and that's all I and others have been pointing out. Nothing scary on either the wet or dry side of things - it's just been near normal this fall/winter. For the vast majority of the places people live north of Olympia in WA. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 Some of the northern parts of Metro Vancouver have seen over 40” of rain since November 1st. They are wet climates to begin with, but that is on the high end of extremes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 You and your lawyer have been mocking the drought non-stop and seem to be flauting around a get out of jail free card. Turnabout is fair play. I am not mocking the drought... I stopped doing that awhile ago because it was counter-productive. Both realities exist and it makes no sense for us in the wet areas to pretend its not unusually dry farther to the south. Likewise... it does not make sense for the people in the drought areas to lump the entire region in together as terribly dry. The region is distinctly split and it does not appear to be changing any time soon. We should be talking in that context and not trying to paint the entire region with a broad brush. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 ECMWF starts to make an attempt at a pattern retrogression at day 10. It does seem like the models are beginning to hint at some cold air finally moving in around the 17th. Question is how far west does it get though? Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 Some of the northern parts of Metro Vancouver have seen over 40” of rain since November 1st. They are wet climates to begin with, but that is on the high end of extremes. Definitely a different situation up there compared to south of the border. Pretty amazing difference between Vancouver and Bellingham for the water year to date, considering the relatively short distance separating them. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 Some of the northern parts of Metro Vancouver have seen over 40” of rain since November 1st. They are wet climates to begin with, but that is on the high end of extremes. I had about 45" October 10-December 31, 2012. Then the faucet completely shut off. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 ECMWF starts to make an attempt at a pattern retrogression at day 10. It does seem like the models are beginning to hint at some cold air finally moving in around the 17th. Question is how far west does it get though? Starting to feel like I could experience some winter on the Southern Plains in a few weeks. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 Tim, do you realize all of this stress on your part has mostly been in response to a comment stating that MossMan’s area has been near average for the water year to date? Which is factually correct. No one said he was in a drought up there. No need for strawmen. To be fair it did start with folks disagreeing on his area and stats they were providing. I think the last year’s arguments over rain/drought go to show what an odd year it has been and will be be gone soon and probably off to some other topic as the current consistent overall pattern changes. I highly doubt that this is a general trend to dryer times due to a warming climate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 The euro was a shitshow. Split flow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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