January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Super weak @ like maybe 2". Its been a bizarre winter so far. Started late, snows like 3" then melts and gets cold for a week, snows another 1-2"...sticks around for a few days, 1/2 of it melts away and then it gets cold again for a while then wash rinse repeat. 

 

Unlike the last few winters....where the first snow marks the beginning of snowpack until melt off. Winter of 16'-17' was truly epic for us here. No kidding, there was nearly 30" of snowpack in our front yard before it began to melt away in March. I've never seen anything like it in my life, except in the mountains.

 

Been just like that in chesaw as well. In the town of Chesaw there is 6 inches and normally there is about 12-16 by now.

[crf450ish]

February is gonna be pretty stupid. The upstream surf zone looks to continue to gradually amplify for at least the next 4-5 weeks.

 

By the middle of the month, we’ll be in a narrow z-cell regime with a strong -NAM and equarorward STJ with the possibility of a secondary block over Alaska. Fun times.

Some members in the Great Lake & Great Plains forum mentioned how they payed attention to that ever persistent ridge in the Pacific and that until it broke down due to some major climate shift, the west coast was doomed to the same song & dance weather pattern. 

 

Any thoughts on the Deepening Solar minimum?

[Winterdog]

All snow here. Sticking to cars and deck is slushy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some members in the Great Lake & Great Plains forum mentioned how they payed attention to that ever persistent ridge in the Pacific and that until it broke down due to some major climate shift, the west coast was doomed to the same song & dance weather pattern. 

 

Any thoughts on the Deepening Solar minimum?

 

Yeah its been a fairly dominant feature since 2013.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 00z GFS showing some life in the long range.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hour 384 map for Phil!

 

[crf450ish]

Been just like that in chesaw as well. In the town of Chesaw there is 6 inches and normally there is about 12-16 by now.

I seen your post several pages ago about meeting the old guy near chesaw & how you picked his brain about the weather history. I'd be interested in the solar activity in that timeframe he mentioned the epic snow depth in chesaw....

[snow_wizard]

The end of tonight's GFS run looks a lot like the what the CFS has been hinting at.  At face value the cold would proceed to plunge SW under the massive + anoms in the high latitudes.  Looks like the SSW might be coming home to roost.  

[Phil]

Some members in the Great Lake & Great Plains forum mentioned how they payed attention to that ever persistent ridge in the Pacific and that until it broke down due to some major climate shift, the west coast was doomed to the same song & dance weather pattern.

 

Any thoughts on the Deepening Solar minimum?

I’m not a solar physicist, so my opinions are mostly worthless.

[Front Ranger]

You are, without a doubt, the worst model-reader in all of human history.

 

The 12z ECMWF looks worse than any other model for cold air. Jet extension, not an ounce of polar air anywhere on the continent.

 

 

Alrighty, Phil. I didn't say it looked great, I said it looked borderline promising towards the end. As far as how the pattern was evolving.

[MossMan]

All snow here. Sticking to cars and deck is slushy.

Awesome! Still a rain/snow mix here. 35.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

32 now under clear skies. The skiff of snow sparkling on the deck.

[Phil]

Hour 384 map for Phil!

 

Haha. And that, my friend, is how a monster polar block can dam Arctic air into SW-Canada without the aid of the Pacific.

 

It’s rare, but when it occurs, crazy stuff tends to happen. See January 1969 and 1943.

[crf450ish]

Yeah its been a fairly dominant feature since 2013.

I've been trying to find the teleconnection that is causing this dominant feature in the Pacific. It intrigues me yet baffles me. No where else on earth has there ever been such a persistent atmospheric trend. 

[snow_wizard]

I've been trying to find the teleconnection that is causing this dominant feature in the Pacific. It intrigues me yet baffles me. No where else on earth has there ever been such a persistent atmospheric trend. 

 

Things get stuck sometimes.  In the 1950s we were under anomalous troughing about 80% of the time.  It just happens.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

One other thing is becoming apparently. VERY likely January ends up with below average precip. No sign of a real wet pattern and we are quickly falling behind with a quiet week ahead. Already running a -1.25" deficit for the month. 

[Phil]

 

Alrighty, Phil. I didn't say it looked great, I said it looked borderline promising towards the end. As far as how the pattern was evolving.

It looked like crap. Like death. Nothing borderline about it.

 

You’ve been reading models for years. I expect better.

[snow_wizard]

Some members in the Great Lake & Great Plains forum mentioned how they payed attention to that ever persistent ridge in the Pacific and that until it broke down due to some major climate shift, the west coast was doomed to the same song & dance weather pattern. 

 

Any thoughts on the Deepening Solar minimum?

 

A ridge over the Pacific is good if it's off the coast.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A ridge over the Pacific is good if it's off the coast.

 

Yes, what we've seen is probably more accurately described as West Coast ridging. 

[snow_wizard]

Haha. And that, my friend, is how a monster polar block can dam Arctic air into SW-Canada without the aid of the Pacific.

 

It’s rare, but when it occurs, crazy stuff tends to happen. See January 1969 and 1943.

 

 

This could end up happening at the time of the winter that has the greatest potential also.  I think the huge lack of cold nationwide in such a deep solar min means somebody is going to get shellacked before it's over.

[crf450ish]

I’m not a solar physicist, so my opinions are mostly worthless.

However you do seem to know quite a bit about hadley cells and ferrel cells. There has to be some connection between solar activity and the subsequent magnetism emitted. To a certain degree, I believe said magnetism plays a role in the atmospheric perturbations on earth. Why else is blocking more common and persistent during low solar activity?

[seattleweatherguy]

Down to 35 here still rain at least getting closer. Hope it's wet enough thru night to get a chance at snow

[Bryant]

Doubt we see any flakes fly up this way, but to those who do, enjoy them!

[Front Ranger]

It looked like crap. Like death. Nothing borderline about it.

 

You’ve been reading models for years. I expect better.

 

I think you still just have a Douglas Fir up your butt from the tree-trimming conversation earlier today.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Nice to see some low elevation folks finally seeing some flakes.

[Timmy]

Got a quick skiff tonight under heavy snow for about 15 minutes. Winter is here.

[HighlandExperience]

Snow at the very top of the highlands in issaquah. Also looks like it’s snow in snowualmie ridge, and North Bend.

 

Hope we don’t have another windstorm. Power was out a long time this morning. Strongest windstorm in recent memory.

 

This winter sure has been a dud for snow.

[GHweatherChris]

Snow at the very top of the highlands in issaquah. Also looks like it’s snow in snowualmie ridge, and North Bend.

 

Hope we don’t have another windstorm. Power was out a long time this morning. Strongest windstorm in recent memory.

 

This winter sure has been a dud for snow.

You should have went to the Embassy Suites!!

[MossMan]

SNOW! Big fat flakes...first real flakes at the new place! Sticking to the deck.

[Winterdog]

Still snowing. Radar is improving a bit too.

[TT-SEA]

My son had to run home after work to get clothes for school tomorrow and he said there is about 3 inches there and the roads are bad... and the utility crews are working on the road at the bottom of the hill.    We were there around 6 p.m. and it was still dry.

 

ECMWF shows some wind coming in later tonight and tomorrow morning so that should warm it up a little.

[Requiem]

Well after a surprise windstorm last night, the surprise snowfall tonight is icing on the cake. 

 

Starting to accumulate on grass/bark/etc. Temp down to 32 now. 

 

Radar isn't looking all too impressive so really don't see me getting much (surprised with the 1-4 call) but really nice to see it falling at least. I'll take it.

 

Surprise and powerful windstorm, surprise snowfall, you're living a dream!

[ShawniganLake]

Surprise and powerful windstorm, surprise snowfall, you're living a dream!

Seems like last nights wind was fairly well modeled. Not sure that many were caught by surprise

[GHweatherChris]

My son had to run home after work to get clothes for school tomorrow and he said there is about 3 inches there and the roads are bad... and the utility crews are working on the road at the bottom of the hill. We were there around 6 p.m. and it was still dry.

 

ECMWF shows some wind coming in later tonight and tomorrow morning so that should warm it up a little.

Thanks Tim, we were all worried....

[TT-SEA]

Seems like last nights wind was fairly well modeled. Not sure that many were caught by surprise

12Z ECMWF also showed snow for the east side of Seattle this evening and showed about 3-4 inches in my area. I just didn't notice it because of the wind issues.

 

Lots of locals staying here tonight... everyone at the pool earlier was here because of power outages.

[Requiem]

Seems like last nights wind was fairly well modeled. Not sure that many were caught by surprise

 

My impression from most models was that the winds would be much stronger more south, with Seattle proper receiving 40-50 mph gusts. The opposite happened, which I found strange, but the squall line was certainly a surprise.

[andrewr]

My brother lives out by kanasket/palmer and has 3".

[El_Nina]

Finally have seen a snowflake IMBY. 36 degrees with a mix currently.

[Requiem]

NWS expecting a PSCZ to develop later tonight and snow to fall at places with elevation within it.

 

Could keep things interesting depending on where it sets up.

 

That's cool. Wish there was an equivalent of the PSCZ here in PDX, cause when that thing sets up correctly it can provide breathtaking results.

[Phil]

I think you still just have a Douglas Fir up your butt from the tree-trimming conversation earlier today.

If I’m gonna go that route, I’d prefer to start with something smaller.

 

Your weird model analysis just annoys me sometimes. I’m still waiting on that Yukon cold loading to show up.