January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[HighlandExperience]

Tomorrow is looking pretty interesting up here again. We will see

 

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Looks similar to what it showed last night down here. Did not amount to much. Just flakes flying!

[TT-SEA]

You always start posting stats as a wet period is ending, and a drier one is about to begin. Like clockwork.

 

Works better for the narrative that way.

 

But no, it's not BS for me to point out that the WRCC maps incorporate more than two stations.

That is why I look at the actual WRCC station data. Lots of them

 

This was in response to Jesse mocking Randy. And his area is running wetter than normal for the last month... just a fact.

 

And I did want to do a post on the final numbers locally for 2018. The data is finally updated. It was another wet year... another fact.

[MossMan]

I think Jesse is just jealous.

 

We should all be recognizing both the wet and dry areas... its the reality.

 

Or the people in the northern half of western WA and southern BC will just keep saying its really wet... and not give a flying crap what is happening in SW WA and Oregon.

I would gladly give everyone currently in the minus for rainfall half of what I have received since the second week of September. It has been quite wet.

[MossMan]

12Z ECMWF is a little more bullish with lowland snow tomorrow:

 

I thought the 850’s were rising by tomorrow?

[TT-SEA]

I thought the 850’s were rising by tomorrow?

 

 

Offshore flow increases... that can offset warmer 850mb temps for a little while.   

 

850mb temps are warming up by early tomorrow morning though...

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Will be a good test Euro vs mm5 for hood canal. Euro says a little snow and mm5 says no.

[Front Ranger]

Thanks.   I like actual stats... highlights the difference and its interesting.

 

SEA is +.11 for the water year and PDX is -3.38

 

And its even drier to the south.

 

What we need is a pattern that focuses heavy rain on SW WA and Oregon.   The folks to the north in BC and on the Olympic Peninsula are actually waterlogged.    And its been pretty much normal for the rest of the northern half of western WA.    

 

Here you go. These stats support the WRCC maps.

 

Sand Point: -.88" for the water year

OLM: -2.88" for the water year

[TT-SEA]

Clear skies and 31F here. The fact that we will likely see clear skies this evening will probably help us start off pretty cold tomorrow morning

 

 

43 and partly cloudy in North Bend right now... must be a decent SW breeze there.

[Jesse]

I would gladly give everyone currently in the minus for rainfall half of what I have received since the second week of September. It has been quite wet.

Looks like your area has been pretty close to average for the water year to date. Hence my joke earlier.

[MossMan]

Offshore flow increases... that can offset warmer 850mb temps for a little while.

 

850mb temps are warming up by early tomorrow morning though...

 

Looks like some toasty 850’s around Phil’s place!

[TT-SEA]

Here you go. These stats support the WRCC maps.

 

Sand Point: -.88" for the water year

OLM: -2.88" for the water year

 

I have made no claim about OLM southward.     I am not disputing the drier than normal departures down there.   Its a fact.

 

The northern half of western WA has been very close to normal or above normal for the water year.   Southern BC has been really wet.

 

There is a distinct north-south gradient.   Again.   As usual.  

[Front Ranger]

That is why I look at the actual WRCC station data. Lots of them

 

This was in response to Jesse mocking Randy. And his area is running wetter than normal for the last month... just a fact.

 

And I did want to do a post on the final numbers locally for 2018. The data is finally updated. It was another wet year... another fact.

 

It was a little wetter than normal for some areas from about your point north. 

 

Not comparable to the previous 4 years, though. For that area, or for the region as a whole.

[Front Ranger]

I would gladly give everyone currently in the minus for rainfall half of what I have received since the second week of September. It has been quite wet.

 

You are also going through the first fall/winter in a wetter micro-climate. It's been drier than normal over that period at your old place. 

 

[TT-SEA]

Looks like your area has been pretty close to average for the water year to date. Hence my joke earlier.

 

The nearest active station to him (Arlington) stopped updating in the middle of December and is still missing almost half the month.   So the maps probably incorporate that data as being below normal.

 

September - November is updated for Arlington and it was exactly 2.00 inches above normal.    I know the last week of December and the first week of January was very wet up there.    So it makes sense that his area is waterlogged right now and he would know that way better than you because he is living it every day.      

[Front Ranger]

I have made no claim about OLM southward.     I am not disputing the drier than normal departures down there.   Its a fact.

 

The northern half of western WA has been very close to normal or above normal for the water year.   Southern BC has been really wet.

 

There is a distinct north-south gradient.   Again.   As usual.  

 

Seattle WFO is further north than SEA, yet recently you've only been citing SEA. Strange...

[TT-SEA]

It was a little wetter than normal for some areas from about your point north. 

 

Not comparable to the previous 4 years, though. For that area, or for the region as a whole.

 

 

Yeah... between 5-15 inches above normal for 2018 for foothill areas east of I-5 from Seattle northward.

 

Certainly not a dry year up here in God's country.   

[MossMan]

The nearest active station to him (Arlington) stopped updating in the middle of December and is still missing almost half the month. So the maps probably incorporate that data as being below normal.

 

September - November is updated for Arlington and it was exactly 2.00 inches above normal. I know the last week of December and the first week of January was very wet up there. So it makes sense that his area is waterlogged right now and he would know that way better than you because he is living it every day.

Yeah I don’t think it’s been quite that dry around my old area, Lake Goodwin is running at or just slightly above normal water level it looked like when I stopped by yesterday.

[TT-SEA]

Seattle WFO is further north than SEA, yet recently you've only been citing SEA. Strange...

 

You are right Jared... and even WFO SEA is within an inch of normal for the water year.     

 

More persistent rain shadow there of course... given the overall pattern this fall and early winter.     But even so... just slightly drier there.   Still close to normal.  

 

Scary stuff!   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

WOw

 

[jcmcgaffey]

Just looking at the rain year so far (10/1 to present) there was a very persistent period of dry weather in mid-October, then again in mid November then again in early December. Each of those lasted about 7-10 days and now it looks like we may be heading into another several day dry break. Which is why 95% of Oregon and Washington have deficits for the rain year to date and will likely keep falling behind.

. True we did have some dry periods in general but they weren’t that dry for me and for most the areas just north of Seattle. They didn’t feel like the typical big dry ridging. There were several days within those overal dry periods where we had systems come through and create a convergence just north of seattle while everyone else stayed dry. Typically with a big ridge everyone is dry and we either have clear sunny days the whole day or inversions. I get what you are saying and I agree with you but something just feels different about this nino and it might just be that it feels like a weak nino almost nuetral season.

[Jesse]

Saw a big puddle near my house the other day.

 

Crazy to think that those cheesy WRCC maps show my area below normal for the season to date when that is clear evidence it has been really wet. <_>

[TT-SEA]

Draw a line from Hoquiam to Mount Rainier.  

 

From that line northward... there are no water issues at all and its gets seriously wet as you go north and west.    The Olympic Peninsula and southern BC have been extremely wet.   

 

From that line southward... its been drier than normal which continues an annoying trend from 2018.  

 

Here is the latest drought monitor update:

[TT-SEA]

Saw a big puddle near my house the other day.

 

Crazy to think that those cheesy WRCC maps show my area below normal for the season to date when that is clear evidence it has been really wet. <_>

 

 

You are SO jealous of the northern areas.     You just cannot let us report on our actual conditions without mocking us.  

[Jesse]

Draw a line from Hoquiam to Mount Rainier.

 

From that line northward... there are no water issues at all and its gets seriously wet as you go north and west. The Olympic Peninsula and southern BC have been extremely wet.

 

From that line southward... its been drier than normal which continues an annoying trend from 2018.

 

 

Tim, do you realize all of this stress on your part has mostly been in response to a comment stating that MossMan’s area has been near average for the water year to date? Which is factually correct. No one said he was in a drought up there. No need for strawmen.

[MossMan]

WOw

 

Time to put the boat in the water!

[Front Ranger]

Yeah... between 5-15 inches above normal for 2018 for foothill areas east of I-5 from Seattle northward.

 

Certainly not a dry year up here in God's country.   

 

Many of those areas average 10"+ of rain/month in the wet season. 5-15" above normal for the year is pedestrian.

[TT-SEA]

Time to put the boat in the water!

 

 

Watch out for an inversion!   

 

Although the season starts waning by the last week of January.  

[Omegaraptor]

Pow day on Mt Hood! Can’t wait to go on Wednesday.

 

The one great thing about every cold airmass. Even if there isn’t snow or cold in the lowlands, it’s going to be a great snow day on Hood.

[Jesse]

You are SO jealous of the northern areas. You just cannot let us report on our actual conditions without mocking us.

You and your lawyer have been mocking the drought non-stop and seem to be flaunting around a get out of jail free card. Turnabout is fair play.

[TT-SEA]

Tim, do you realize all of this stress on your part has mostly been in response to a comment stating that MossMan’s area has been near average for the water year to date? Which is factually correct. No one said he was in a drought up there. No need for strawmen.

 

 

Actually that is not where you started.

 

He just said that its been really wet and it would be nice to dry out a little.   You do realize how wet its been up there the last two weeks right?      His comment was perfectly valid.     No need to mock him because his comment makes you more anxious about missing out on all the heavy rain down there.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

With no precip today I will end the first week of January with a -1.59" departure. 

 

We have had some crazy dry Januaries before (1985), this will not rank up with those ones, but still looks like it could be around 50% of normal. The only good news is snowpack while not great is not in the disaster range we have seen during some of all time dud winters. 

[Front Ranger]

You are right Jared... and even WFO SEA is within an inch of normal for the water year.     

 

More persistent rain shadow there of course... given the overall pattern this fall and early winter.     But even so... just slightly drier there.   Still close to normal. 

 

Scary stuff!   

 

Yes, and that's all I and others have been pointing out. Nothing scary on either the wet or dry side of things - it's just been near normal this fall/winter. For the vast majority of the places people live north of Olympia in WA.

[ShawniganLake]

Some of the northern parts of Metro Vancouver have seen over 40” of rain since November 1st. They are wet climates to begin with, but that is on the high end of extremes.

[TT-SEA]

You and your lawyer have been mocking the drought non-stop and seem to be flauting around a get out of jail free card. Turnabout is fair play.

 

 

I am not mocking the drought... I stopped doing that awhile ago because it was counter-productive.  

 

Both realities exist and it makes no sense for us in the wet areas to pretend its not unusually dry farther to the south.    Likewise... it does not make sense for the people in the drought areas to lump the entire region in together as terribly dry.    

 

The region is distinctly split and it does not appear to be changing any time soon.   

 

We should be talking in that context and not trying to paint the entire region with a broad brush. 

[Kayla]

ECMWF starts to make an attempt at a pattern retrogression at day 10. It does seem like the models are beginning to hint at some cold air finally moving in around the 17th. Question is how far west does it get though?

 

[Front Ranger]

Some of the northern parts of Metro Vancouver have seen over 40” of rain since November 1st. They are wet climates to begin with, but that is on the high end of extremes.

 

Definitely a different situation up there compared to south of the border. Pretty amazing difference between Vancouver and Bellingham for the water year to date, considering the relatively short distance separating them.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some of the northern parts of Metro Vancouver have seen over 40” of rain since November 1st. They are wet climates to begin with, but that is on the high end of extremes.

 

I had about 45" October 10-December 31, 2012. Then the faucet completely shut off. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ECMWF starts to make an attempt at a pattern retrogression at day 10. It does seem like the models are beginning to hint at some cold air finally moving in around the 17th. Question is how far west does it get though?

 

 

Starting to feel like I could experience some winter on the Southern Plains in a few weeks. 

[jcmcgaffey]

Tim, do you realize all of this stress on your part has mostly been in response to a comment stating that MossMan’s area has been near average for the water year to date? Which is factually correct. No one said he was in a drought up there. No need for strawmen.

To be fair it did start with folks disagreeing on his area and stats they were providing. I think the last year’s arguments over rain/drought go to show what an odd year it has been and will be be gone soon and probably off to some other topic as the current consistent overall pattern changes. I highly doubt that this is a general trend to dryer times due to a warming climate.

[ShawniganLake]

The euro was a shitshow. Split flow.