January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Esquimalt]

The 12Z gets there. 

 

Edit: more of a glancing blow.  Not a bad run overall though. 

[ShawniganLake]

Well if there was a model shift it was the much debated (less accurate) 6z that caught it first.

[Esquimalt]

GEM looking mighty fine this morning!

[Bryant]

Summary of the last few pages:

 

•Models flip flopping in the LR (would who have guessed?!)

 

•Tim being Tim and making snarky comments to anyone that crosses in front of him (who would have guessed?!)

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Forks in the drawer for a while longer yet.

[TT-SEA]

Summary of the last few pages:

 

•Models flip flopping in the LR (would who have guessed?!)

 

•Tim being Tim and making snarky comments to anyone that crosses in front of him (who would have guessed?!)

 

And Bryant constantly attacking... a surly, angry man.    Who would have guessed??   

[MossMan]

Nice morning!

[Phil]

FWIW, apparently the lowest 850mb temperature to ever occur in the CONUS is -42C in northern MN.

 

All of the modeling has this airmass down to at least -44C.

 

Would be an all time record.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

40 and cloudy this morning.

[HighlandExperience]

FWIW, apparently the lowest 850mb temperature to ever occur in the CONUS is -42C in northern MN.

 

All of the modeling has this airmass down to at least -44C.

 

Would be an all time record.

Doesn’t change the fact that the earth is warming.

[Esquimalt]

Control run of the GFS goes off the rails this time.  850s of -21C in Victoria.  Otherwise ensembles are notch worse than the 06Z.  Undercutting seems to happen a little earlier. 

[Jesse]

Feels like another tease. None of them even have the courtesy to make it within 240 hours this year.

[Bryant]

And Bryant constantly attacking... a surly, angry man. Who would have guessed??

Look back at your previous posts the last 24 hours. You're being a total a*s for no reason

[TigerWoodsLibido]

And the King is currently still Joffrey-status so that needs to change bigly.

[TT-SEA]

Look back at your previous posts the last 24 hours. You're being a total a*s for no reason

 

 

Sure Bryant.    Like you are pretty much every single day.    Why call out something that you do all the time?    

[ShawniganLake]

Nothing too exciting about the Euro through day 9. Maybe some extrapolation may be in order.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Currently 25 with light snow here in Tulsa. Tomorrow is forecast to be sunny and 54. 

[Phil]

Doesn’t change the fact that the earth is warming.

Yeah, the system has warmed by a few degrees Fahrenheit over the last few centuries. Sea levels have also risen approximately 6 inches (at a relatively constant rate) since at least the 1820s.

 

Nothing abnormal or unprecedented in the context of this interglacial (in fact, this is perfectly normal). This runs contrary to the alarmist nonsense you hear from activist hacks on a daily basis, of course, but it’s the truth.

[Requiem]

Yeah, the system has warmed by a few degrees Fahrenheit over the last few centuries. Sea levels have also risen approximately 6 inches (at a relatively constant rate) since at least the 1820s.

 

Nothing abnormal or unprecedented in the context of this interglacial (in fact, this is perfectly normal). This runs contrary to the alarmist nonsense you hear from activist hacks on a daily basis, of course, but it’s the truth.

 

I mean, I feel like this is still cause for concern. No, the world will not end in 12 years as some are hinting at, but I feel that a certain amount of action is required...

[ShawniganLake]

FWIW, apparently the lowest 850mb temperature to ever occur in the CONUS is -42C in northern MN.

 

All of the modeling has this airmass down to at least -44C.

 

Would be an all time record.

I feel like we’ve heard this before and yet the record remains. Not sure how far back reliable records go for this.

[Blizzard777]

Live from Federal Way !

45*

Whoooohooo!

[Gradient Keeper]

To no ones surprise it looks like 6z was indeed an outlier, even the ensembles. BUT it all depends on how the cut-off lows are handled. As timing moves forward the next 2-3 days and if those cut-offs are not realized or shunted further south we could easily see a colder pattern.

 

00z GFS in 7 hours 40 minutes

[Requiem]

To no ones surprise it looks like 6z was indeed an outlier, even the ensembles. BUT it all depends on how the cut-off lows are handled. As timing moves forward the next 2-3 days and if those cut-offs are not realized or shunted further south we could easily see a colder pattern.

 

00z GFS in 7 hours 40 minutes

 

On another note, are models really this bad at handling East Wind? Even the WRF shows only gusts of 25 kts in the Gorge taken at face value...

[Phil]

I mean, I feel like this is still cause for concern. No, the world will not end in 12 years as some are hinting at, but I feel that a certain amount of action is required...

What kind of action would you propose? Please be specific, no virtue signaling allowed in science.

 

Do you think the climate would magically stop changing in the absence of human influence? Because this ongoing period of climate change is very tame compared to the rapid, violent swings that have permeated the majority of the Pleistocene. And we don’t even remotely understand how those past climate swings occurred..so how can we prevent them in the future if we can’t identify them or grasp their meaning (assuming it’s even possible to do so)?

[Phil]

I feel like we’ve heard this before and yet the record remains. Not sure how far back reliable records go for this.

Satellite records go back to 1978, but the reconstructed record extends back to the 1850s.

 

And we’ve never seen sub -40C modeled into the CONUS..only up in Canada.

[Requiem]

What kind of action would you propose? Please be specific, no virtue signaling allowed in science.

 

Do you think the climate would magically stop changing in the absence of human influence? Because this ongoing period of climate change is very tame compared to the rapid, violent swings that have permeated the majority of the Pleistocene. And we don’t even remotely understand how those past climate swings occurred..so how can we prevent them in the future even if it was possible to do so?

 

I don't know, I'm not the expert. But I do know hundreds upon hundreds of scientists have come to the conclusion that climate change due to greenhouse gases is at least an issue we should be paying attention to if nothing else. If they turn out to be wrong, wonderful, but better safe than sorry. But all I know is that plenty of studies have come to a similar consensus, and I'm not sure what motive they would have for lying about it.

 

Do I think some people are too extreme? Yes. and once again the world will not be ending in 12 years. But if numerous experts have come to a certain conclusion, I say it is best to pay attention.

[Gradient Keeper]

On another note, are models really this bad at handling East Wind? Even the WRF shows only gusts of 25 kts in the Gorge taken at face value...

I just posted this in my group

 

12z WRF-GFS

.... STRONG east winds Monday....

This run has ramped up the east winds another notch. The 4km sounding over PDX is very impressive with 50kts just above the surface and 55kts aloft. We'll have to keep an eye on this the next several runs to see if this is handled similarly or not. It all depends on how close the shortwave Sunday moving south through British Columbia ends up being to us. This looks like gap and downslope wind, so it's not only going to be confined to areas east of I-205.

 

[Requiem]

I just posted this in my group

 

12z WRF-GFS

.... STRONG east winds Monday....

This run has ramped up the east winds another notch. The 4km sounding over PDX is very impressive with 50kts just above the surface and 55kts aloft. We'll have to keep an eye on this the next several runs to see if this is handled similarly or not. It all depends on how close the shortwave Sunday moving south through British Columbia ends up being to us. This looks like gap and downslope wind, so it's not only going to be confined to areas east of I-205.

 

 

Intense. GFS and EURO (though they are kinda useless for these situations) also strengthened winds.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS for the 10-15 day period:

 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

12Z EPS for the 10-15 day period:

 

 

 

Undercut? If so...

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The 00z run tonight will be interesting.

[Phil]

I don't know, I'm not the expert. But I do know hundreds upon hundreds of scientists have come to the conclusion that climate change due to greenhouse gases is at least an issue we should be paying attention to if nothing else.

Alright, let’s start with this. Very reasonable. Of course we should “pay attention” to (and plan ahead for) any potential forcing on the structure of planetary energy budget, as any perturbation can prove consequential. And, obviously, the radiative forcing(s) from GHGes is one of those factors. I don’t know any respected scientist who disagrees with this. So, of course I’m in agreement.

 

If they turn out to be wrong, wonderful, but better safe than sorry. But all I know is that plenty of studies have come to a similar consensus, and I'm not sure what motive they would have for lying about it.

Nobody is claiming the scientific community is “wrong” about GHGes affecting climate to some extent (that is where the “consensus” is). However, you need to bridge the gap between “GHGes influence climate” and “we need to do ___”. Otherwise you aren’t adding anything of value.

 

These extreme projections are derived solely from computer model projections of positive feedback loops that have never been shown to exist in the observed data.

 

Also, when these simulations are experimentally run forward on short/operational lead times (usually on weekly/monthly timescales..like the CFSv2) they will fail in spectacular fashion. There are always a multitude of state independent structural biases in the simulated system state, and global temperatures will often quickly rise 1+C above observations in the absence of constraining parameters. Much of these errors (and perhaps the origins of the feedback loops themselves) arise from steady state convective parameterizations that run uncoupled from instantaneous changes to the thermal structure via GHG forcing. Otherwise it would require too much computing power to run such models..which is understandable, but to think this can be patched over seems insane to me.

 

And of course the full plate of higher frequency system state components (MJO, ENSO, annular modes/AAM, strat/chemistry/mass circulation, IPWP vacillations, etc) cannot be modeled over centuries for the same line of reasoning, yet these dynamics regulate the energy budget in major ways..and if we cannot capture the high resolution pathways to said regulation, our models are not simulating the real world at all.

[ShawniganLake]

Day 15. Not terrible at all.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 15. Not terrible at all.28F98C4C-561E-4A06-843D-C81FB393CA06.png8CAC18EF-64F9-42FE-8960-63F882A7FF5A.png

Here we go! The 2nd PV split is causing model havoc. The Plains, Midwest, and East Coast has had their fun. It's our turn now.

[Gradient Keeper]

The 00z run tonight will be interesting.

I think so too.

 

00z GFS in 6 hours 30 minutes

00z GEM in 6 hours 53 minutes

00z ECMWF in 8 hours 48 minutes

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Alright, let’s start with this. Very reasonable. Of course we should “pay attention” to (and plan ahead for) any potential forcing on the structure of planetary energy budget, as any perturbation can prove consequential. And, obviously, the radiative forcing(s) from GHGes is one of those factors. I don’t know any respected scientist who disagrees with this. So, of course I’m in agreement.

 

Nobody is claiming the scientific community is “wrong” about GHGes affecting climate to some extent (that is where the “consensus” is). However, you need to bridge the gap between “GHGes influence climate” and “we need to do ___”. Otherwise you aren’t adding anything of value.

These extreme projections are derived solely from computer model projections of positive feedback loops that have never been shown to exist in the observed data.

Also, when these simulations are experimentally run forward on short/operational lead times (usually on weekly/monthly timescales..like the CFSv2) they will fail in spectacular fashion. There are always a multitude of state independent structural biases in the simulated system state, and global temperatures will often quickly rise 1+C above observations in the absence of constraining parameters. Much of these errors (and perhaps the origins of the feedback loops themselves) arise from steady state convective parameterizations that run uncoupled from instantaneous changes to the thermal structure via GHG forcing. Otherwise it would require too much computing power to run such models..which is understandable, but to think this can be patched over seems insane to me.

And of course the full plate of higher frequency system state components (MJO, ENSO, annular modes/AAM, strat/chemistry/mass circulation, IPWP vacillations, etc) cannot be modeled over centuries for the same line of reasoning, yet these dynamics regulate the energy budget in major ways..and if we cannot capture the high resolution pathways to said regulation, our models are not simulating the real world at all.

I'd be more worried about the small trees in your yard.

[Kayla]

Great progress on the 12z EPS today.

 

Maybe my straw grasping yesterday was not so crazy...It's not over yet boys and girls!

[Phil]

The reality is that we humans have always overestimated our importance in the grand scheme of things and tend to wear blinders when confronted with new paradigms. Hubris has been one of our most prominent character traits since the earliest days.

 

The Earth was at the center of the universe. Every flood, volcano, or drought was a result of humans neglecting to appease some angry god (often by “sacrificing” an innocent child or something like that). And anyone who dared/dares claim otherwise gets annihilated (whether literally or metaphorically).

 

Tens of millions have been slaughtered over the last few centuries, all in name of religion. I mean, it can’t be proven true or false, but we murder one another over it, because our ideas are right, and yours are wrong, and deniers of reality like you are pure evil and are ruining the world for all of us good people (now think of the politics of today and how we characterize our opposition..very easy to let the reptilian hindbrain take over).

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The reality is that we humans have always overestimated our importance in the grand scheme of things and tend to wear blinders when confronted with new paradigms. Hubris has been one of our most prominent character traits since the earliest days.

 

The Earth was at the center of the universe. Every flood, volcano, or drought was a result of humans neglecting to appease some angry god (often by “sacrificing” an innocent child or something like that). And anyone who dared/dares claim otherwise gets annihilated (whether literally or metaphorically).

 

Tens of millions have been slaughtered over the last few centuries, all in name of religion. I mean, it can’t be proven true or false, but we murder one another over it, because our ideas are right, and yours are wrong, and deniers of reality like you are pure evil and are ruining the world for all of us good people (now think of the politics of today and how we characterize our opposition..very easy to let the reptilian hindbrain take over).

 

Fear instincts becoming too strong for sure.  Powerful tactics to use against those who struggle to control it.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Any guesses as to what the druncle is going to spit out?