Gradient Keeper Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Day 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Day 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Day 5 looks pretty decent so far Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Wow. 00z WRF-GFS 1.33km stronger than 12z showing 50kt gusts for PDX tomorrow? Not sure I buy that. We'll see! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Wow. 00z WRF-GFS 1.33km stronger than 12z showing 50kt gusts for PDX tomorrow? Not sure I buy that. We'll see! Goodbye fog Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 It's currently extremely foggy, misty and smells like a** outside.Sounds "boring" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Day 6 much better amplification and tilt, but the trough is digging off BC a bit too much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 ECMWF hour 144 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Goodbye fogFog gone here near west Gresham with east wind developing. 12z ECMWF in 11 hours 14 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 EURO through Day 6 is WORLDS better than the GFS, FV3, ICON, GEM, 9z Himalayan Sherpa model, the Zimbabwean Malaria model, etc. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 28, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Fog gone here near west Gresham with east wind developing. 12z ECMWF in 11 hours 14 minutes I love a good east wind! Should be roaring in the West Hills come tomorrow, and these events seem pretty poorly forecasted (so they're usually surprisingly strong or weak). Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Fog gone here near west Gresham with east wind developing. 12z ECMWF in 11 hours 14 minutesStill socked in here. But since it's not foggy in Gresham then I'm probably about to clear out. I'm curious how quick this is gonna go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 EURO through Day 6 is WORLDS better than the GFS, FV3, ICON, GEM, 9z Himalayan Sherpa model, the Zimbabwean Malaria model, etc.Actually quite similar to GFS at 144 hours. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Day 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Real close to mega cold. No split flow junk anywhere. Trough energy is nice and consolidated. We need the arctic trough to dig more southward and not out off BC Days 5-6 though. C'MON!!!! 12z GFS in 8 hours 48 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Real close to mega cold. No split flow junk anywhere. Trough energy is nice and consolidated. We need the arctic trough to dig more southward and not out off BC Days 5-6 though. C'MON!!!! 12z GFS in 8 hours 48 minutes Looks like the 12Z run. The cold air does split... too much energy going offshore and then into CA. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Day 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Day 8No go. We are in no man's land again like the 12Z run. Cold to the north and south and entire trough shifting east. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Not good Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 No go. We are in no man's land again like the 12Z run. Cold to the north and south and entire trough shifting east.Good thing there is still time for things to improve further. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Total snow through next Monday morning per 00Z ECMWF... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 No go. We are in no man's land again like the 12Z run. Cold to the north and south and entire trough shifting east.Yep. I know. We need the trough to slide down the BC coast, not dig out off it, then dig southward and continue to do so. Not there yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Good thing there is still time for things to improve further. Certainly could still improve... but the ECMWF is not improving right now. Nor is the GFS. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Onto the EPS and 6z/12z runs tomorrow morning. C'MON!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 28, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 The ensembles still look perfectly fine, to my knowledge. Guess the 00Z was on the warmer side... 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 The 00z FV3 delivers an Arctic Blast to the PNW. I think the FV3 has a -NAO/ridge bridge bias in clown range. That s**t hasn’t happened since the 2008-12 blip. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 11:12 PM Pressure GradientsEasterly gradients increasing quickly now. Sharp pressure rises noted over the Eastern Gorge and Columbia Basin. Check out graphs for The Dalles and Yakima! WOW! We usually don't see pressure rises this sharp unless an arctic frontal passage is involved. As of 11 PM[Gorge/Gap Gradients]PDX-DLS: -4.1mbTTD-DLS: -4.1mb[Cross Cascade Gradients]PDX-YKM: -5.3mbPDX-MWH: -5.4mbPDX-GEG: -3.6mbOTH-GEG: -7.9mb[southwest British Columbia/Fraser River Gradient]BLI-YWL: -7.3mb*Legend: PDX = Portland, DLS = The Dalles, TTD = TroutdaleYKM = Yakima, MWH = Moses Lake, OTH = North Bend, GEG = SpokaneYWL = Williams Lake BC, BLI = BellinghamA -negative value denotes easterly or northerly/offshore flowA +positive value denotes onshore/westerly flow 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 We need the cold air to get here to get cold. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 28, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 11:12 PM Pressure GradientsEasterly gradients increasing quickly now. Sharp pressure rises noted over the Eastern Gorge and Columbia Basin. Check out graphs for The Dalles and Yakima! WOW! We usually don't see pressure rises this sharp unless an arctic frontal passage is involved. As of 11 PM[Gorge/Gap Gradients]PDX-DLS: -4.1mbTTD-DLS: -4.1mb[Cross Cascade Gradients]PDX-YKM: -5.3mbPDX-MWH: -5.4mbPDX-GEG: -3.6mbOTH-GEG: -7.9mb[southwest British Columbia/Fraser River Gradient]BLI-YWL: -7.3mb*Legend: PDX = Portland, DLS = The Dalles, TTD = TroutdaleYKM = Yakima, MWH = Moses Lake, OTH = North Bend, GEG = SpokaneYWL = Williams Lake BC, BLI = BellinghamA -negative value denotes easterly or northerly/offshore flowA +positive value denotes onshore/westerly flow Oh yeah, east wind just started here. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Here’s the next slosh attempt w/ more westerlies/dateline forcing upcoming. Might have a better shot to consolidate and complete a niño rolling into 2019/20. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Euro looks like it might get snowy on Day 11-12. Extrapolation sensation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 But once the next niño finishes, it’s go time for the westward retraction and consolidation of the IPWP. http://www.climate4you.com/images/PacificEquatorialSSTanomaly.GIF Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 The EPS mean continues to trend colder. It looks more like the FV3 than anything. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 The EPS mean continues to trend colder. It looks more like the FV3 than anything.That sounds encouraging 6z GFS in 1 hour 26 minutes. I won't be here for the night shift. I'm going to try this sleep thing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Fog has lifted here quite a bit. Ugh. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 I think the FV3 has a -NAO/ridge bridge bias in clown range. That s**t hasn’t happened since the 2008-12 blip. I hope that actually happens. It's good for everyone. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 The EPS mean continues to trend colder. It looks more like the FV3 than anything.Seems like all of the big 3 op runs were warm outliers Sunday evening. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Hard to complain about that... Although I'm sure someone will try. When you have the EPS showing the best, most-prolonged shot at something decent all winter it adds at least +30% points to the chances of this thing happening. One of the best (if not the best) models to have in our corner. Let's just say I'm 'cautiously optimistic'. Ah, the famous last words of any PNW weather weenie.Oh this has already been jinxed by PDX NWS. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Surprisingly, they haven't issued a Winter Storm Warning yet so the jinx is not fully complete.I’m sure they’re strongly considering it. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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