Gradient Keeper Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Day 2 energy in Bering Sea a notch further west Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 29, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Day 2 energy in Bering Sea a notch further west Is that more in line with the EURO yet? Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 This is like the start of the 3rd qtr of a ballgame. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Is that more in line with the EURO yet?Through Day 2 18z is very similar to the 12z ECMWF 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 29, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Through Day 2 18z is very similar to the 12z ECMWF The similarities are striking, actually. FV3 and GEM are in agreement through day two as well. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Looking at the 500mb pattern Days 2-3 it doesn't look like the GFS is yet moving towards the ECMWF/FV3.... Not yet anyways. We'll see how days 4-6 progress, but I don't think so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakeinthevalley Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Looks like PDX NWS is leaning towards the GFS solution in the longer range Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Looking at the 500mb pattern Days 2-3 it doesn't look like the GFS is yet moving towards the ECMWF/FV3.... Not yet anyways. We'll see how days 4-6 progress, but I don't think so. It's looking a fair bit healthier at Day 4. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Day 4 Arctic air much further west in BC compared to previous runs. Hmmm.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Looks like PDX NWS is leaning towards the GFS solution in the longer rangeNWS will pick the ugliest model to go with until probably Friday I bet. If the Euro still looks like the Euro of today on Friday then they might bite! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Looks like PDX NWS is leaning towards the GFS solution in the longer range Safer bet at this point. I'm going to expect this solution and if anything better happens then great. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 29, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Looks like PDX NWS is leaning towards the GFS solution in the longer range I'm sure it's just to be conservative right now, as they don't want to get hopes up. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 It's looking a fair bit healthier at Day 4.Yep. GFS is moving a bit more towards the ECMWF/FV3. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 ICON also shows the block strengthening Day 4-5 with a good degree of amplification. The 12z AUSSIE looks to be on board. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Day 5 Compared to 12z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 GFS gets so close. Much improved over previous runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 GFS still lacking the tilt/amplification of the EURO, but gradually moving towards that direction. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Not that it means anything since its the 18Z run... but its much more like the 12Z GFS than anything close to the 12Z ECMWF. Not surprising though. I think the 00Z GFS will completely cave. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 I like what I'm seeing. I like the trends. Look for improvements on the 18z GEFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Model wars suck like this. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Arctic air closer on the 18z for sure. Right at the border at hr 138 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Day 6 merger with block, Aleutian ridge occurring much sooner this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Past 4 GFS runs centered at Day 6.5. Dramatic improvements. https://imgur.com/WubdOZh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Looks like PDX NWS is leaning towards the GFS solution in the longer rangeThat should work in our favor 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 18z FV3 running 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 10day forcast just updated to show snow next Monday and Thursday for Seattle....doesnt give totals though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 NWS will pick the ugliest model to go with until probably Friday I bet. If the Euro still looks like the Euro of today on Friday then they might bite!Yep. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Past 4 GFS runs centered at Day 6.5. Dramatic improvements. https://imgur.com/WubdOZh Pretty decent trend there. Just need the 00z GFS to fully give in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Not that it means anything since its the 18Z run... but its much more like the 12Z GFS than anything close to the 12Z ECMWF. Not surprising though. I think the 00Z GFS will completely cave.I wouldn't be surprised if the GFS takes a bit longer but I hope it gives in ASAP so we can have full model consistency across the board. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Day 4Arctic air much further west in BC compared to previous runs. Hmmm....Typical model push back. To be expected but hopefully only delays and does not equate to not delivering. *FINGERS, LEGS, ARMS and EVERY HAIR CROSSED* Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 29, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Typical model push back. To be expected but hopefully only delays and does not equate to not delivering. *FINGERS, LEGS, ARMS and EVERY HAIR CROSSED* I thought that run was actually quite a step towards the EURO/EPS runs.... Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 I thought that run was actually quite a step towards the EURO/EPS runs.... It was, just a bit delayed but progress. 1 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 It was, just a bit delayed but progress.“Typical model pushback” doesn’t make any sense in this context, then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 I haven't seen the 12z JMA posted yet but it's on the train. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 18z FV3 at day 5. Here we go. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Sounder Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 I think it's safe to say that the GFS operational is the outlier at this point. Very good chance the 00z caves tonight. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Wow marked ensemble improvement again! Ensembles averages now bottom out at -7˚C here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 ANOTHER nice day! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 ANOTHER nice day!Tim approved. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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