January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Guest Sounder]

Unfortunately the Euro moderates the cold pool in BC dramatically after day 7, way more than previous runs. Still though, big improvements inside 7 days and that's what really counts.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The GEM was an improvement overall as well, though obviously not nearly as good as the Euro. FV3 looked similar and improved as well around days 9-10.

And icon.

[HighlandExperience]

Best euro run of the season.

[Gradient Keeper]

With ANY amplification that arctic air mass will slide right down over us. C'MON!!!!

 

6z GFS in 2 hours 15 minutes

[TT-SEA]

Best euro run of the season.

 

Really?

 

Still does not even really show much snow for you... or even me.    And it has snowed here this winter already.  

 

There were some runs earlier in the season that showed lots of snow for us in the 7-10 day period.   

[HighlandExperience]

[Gradient Keeper]

As improved as this run was, we have to remember it is only ONE run. The next 2 days we need to see this become a trend and to see the GFS/GEM eventually hop on board.

[Omegaraptor]

RH updated. Lowest RH recorded today was in fact 32%.

 

Daily rainfall average is also 0.14” now.

[TT-SEA]

[Geos]

Nice to see renewed hope for snow and cold next week. Already frosty here at 33°.

[MossMan]

30 frosty degrees here currently.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

10 degrees warmer than Western Washington in parts of the valley with some locations still in the low 40s. We are at 37 here.

[Deweydog]

https://www.columbian.com/news/2019/jan/28/polar-vortex-is-becoming-more-frequent-experts-say/

 

Oh yeah!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Deweydog]

Oh, and it’s January 29th.

[snow_wizard]

The entire ECMWF suite of models shows cold weather early next week.  The ensemble mean is almost a dead ringer for the operational with cold air being pulled southward behind departing low pressure as it moves ESE.  The control is super cold, but we've seen that before with that model.

 

As for the GFS operational...it looks too progressive overall.  that's why it doesn't get that good.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF ensemble mean and the control both show a generally cold pattern persisting right through day 15.  The control is incredible for all of week 2.

[Requiem]

The entire ECMWF suite of models shows cold weather early next week.  The ensemble mean is almost a dead ringer for the operational with cold air being pulled southward behind departing low pressure as it moves ESE.  The control is super cold, but we've seen that before with that model.

 

As for the GFS operational...it looks too progressive overall.  that's why it doesn't get that good.

 

The ensembles in general aren't bad at all. I know no one uses the EPS weeklies but they are truly something else.

[Jesse]

10 degrees warmer than Western Washington in parts of the valley with some locations still in the low 40s. We are at 37 here.

38 in Seattle, 36 in Bellingham, 35 in Eugene. Ugh.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The entire ECMWF suite of models shows cold weather early next week. The ensemble mean is almost a dead ringer for the operational with cold air being pulled southward behind departing low pressure as it moves ESE. The control is super cold, but we've seen that before with that model.

 

As for the GFS operational...it looks too progressive overall. that's why it doesn't get that good.

The ECMWF ensemble mean and the control both show a generally cold pattern persisting right through day 15. The control is incredible for all of week 2.

Yeah, I saw both the 00z EPS and Control run and they look great. We're getting close now.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Night shift!!!

 

Edit: GFS looks the same...shitty.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Night shift!!!

 

Edit: GFS looks the same...shitty.

The FV3 looks like it trended towards King EURO.

 

[MossMan]

Ensembles say the 6z is mostly a warm outlier.

 

Come on Euro, keep up the good work!

 

Currently 29.

[TT-SEA]

It feels like forever ago when I made the Feb 1-5 prediction.   

 

Its January 29th now and we still are not sure!    Its been granted and taken away in the models so many times that I have lost count.

 

The best chance of the winter is right in the middle of that period though.  

[Jbolin]

It feels like forever ago when I made the Feb 1-5 prediction.   

 

Its January 29th now and we still are not sure!    Its been granted and taken away in the models so many times that I have lost count.

 

The best chance of the winter is right in the middle of that period though.  

What does your gut say?

[TT-SEA]

What does your gut say?

 

Snow for most of us by Monday morning.

[FroYoBro]

Snow for most of us by Monday morning.

 

 

IT'S COMING!!!!!!!!!!

[TT-SEA]

38 at SEA with a north wind.

 

42 and clear here with a east wind... downsloping is warmer.  

[Jbolin]

Snow for most of us by Monday morning.

You said Feb 2-5th if I recall correctly, right?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Tim aka heat mizer has spoken!

[Geos]

About 31° here with a heavy frost. No wind

[Geos]

-26° in International Falls right now with low -40's for lows the next two nights!

[TT-SEA]

-26° in International Falls right now with low -40's for lows the next two nights!

 

 

It was -46 there on Sunday morning.

 

I think it might be colder than low -40s on Thursday morning when the wind goes calm.

[ShawniganLake]

EPS had nationwide cold at day15

[luvssnow_spokane]

[Tyler Mode]

28 for a low in Battle Ground so far.  Mostly clear skies but little frost thanks to the dry air that pushed in yesterday.

 

Looks like this will end up being my driest January since moving out here in 2010.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I was wondering about last nights Euro Weeklies.  They can be confusing, as I have seen people interpret the same maps differently, but here is one interpretation from this site:  https://weatherloverblog.wordpress.com/2019/01/29/jan-28-euro-weeklies/

 

 

This set of imagery depicts most of February.

 

 

 

[Farmboy]

LoL, saw this on fb this morning...

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Here is Bret Anderson:  Chilly, but dry.

 

 

[Jesse]

LoL, saw this on fb this morning...

 

Screenshot_20190129-083658.png

Always entertaining to see a conversation between two idiots.