Jesse Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Warmer runs ahead...Of course you would. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 If this even comes close to verifying, the 2010s will easily go down as the decade where February got its groove back, if nothing else. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 The 12z King EURO shows snow down to sea level for pretty much most of the PNW starting Sunday night into most of Monday. Lots of snow chances next week. us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019012912_138_5618_155.pngus_model-en-087-0_modez_2019012912_141_5618_155.pngus_model-en-087-0_modez_2019012912_144_5618_155.pngus_model-en-087-0_modez_2019012912_150_5618_155.pngus_model-en-087-0_modez_2019012912_156_5618_155.png Painful shadowing going on but we can worry about those details later. I feel much better now having the entire euro suite behind this and some run to run consistency on at least some models. Hopefully GFS surrenders soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 If this even comes close to verifying, the 2010s will easily go down as the decade where February got its groove back, if nothing else. If we score next month it'll actually be about to the point where February > January for the 1985 to present period overall. At least for snow and actual arctic airmasses, maybe not overall temp averages. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Painful shadowing going on but we can worry about those details later. I feel much better now having the entire euro suite behind this and some run to run consistency on at least some models. Hopefully GFS surrenders soon. Springfield gets good upsloping from either cold onshore or offshore from winds down the valley. If we can get cold enough those totals for the s valley might be a bit higher. Dallas-Corvallis will get screwed again. They can't buy a break. They are the most precip-shadowed area in the Willamette Valley so it makes sense. Gonna need a smoke after these model runs. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Looks like your classic oak bay/downtown convergence. The last major one was last February 23rd of last yearI'm not familiar with your convergence zones up there but that's good to hear. We also did well down here last February. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 I was super busy all morning and missed the 12z runs. My thoughts are the new FV3 is strikingly similar to the ECMWF through Day 5-6. The GEM and GFS are more progressive to an extent. The main difference is amplification. You can see on both the FV3, ECMWF there is a finger of positive anomalies and higher heights jutting up through eastern Alaska. That is key to provide the support to give the arctic trough over BC to nudge it southward towards us. It is very encouraging seeing the ECMWF possibly showing run to run consistency for this colder/snowy solution. It is good to see the EPS trending colder. We do still have a ways to go, but this is looking pretty decent thus far. I would be even more encouraged to see the block at Day 3-4 developing stronger and if we were to see that the block would hold that much longer Days 5-7 and the arctic air would drop another 150-200 miles southward over us. Beyond day 8 looks like there is potential for the block to reorganize even more favorably. Long range looks real similar to the Weeklies. Another thing to point out is with arctic air moving out off the southwestern BC coast that could lead to cyclogenesis and a stronger system dropping south with the colder air which would be a much snowier scenario. It's something to keep an eye on. Onto 00z. OH and yeah, the Drunk Uncle. Let's see how soon the GFS and GEM come around to this Cold and SNOW solution. 18z GFS in 56 minutes00z GFS In 6 hours 56 minutes00z GEM in 7 hours 19 minutes00z ECMWF in 9 hours 14 minutes 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 It's REAL NICE to have the EURO/EPS on board, maybe fully on board leading the way. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Painful shadowing going on but we can worry about those details later. I feel much better now having the entire euro suite behind this and some run to run consistency on at least some models. Hopefully GFS surrenders soon.Yeah, we can worry about the finer details later. Even then you can get surprises like with the February 18 snowstorm last year for some parts of PDX Metro. I'm excited that the EURO shows multiple snow chances for next week. The GFS and GEM should come around sooner or later. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Yeah, we can worry about the finer details later. Even then you can get surprises like with the February 18 snowstorm last year for some parts of PDX Metro.I'm excited that the EURO shows multiple snow chances for next week. The GFS and GEM should come around sooner or later.Never take surprises for granted! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Another key difference the FV3, ECMWF show energy held back a bit further into the Western Bering sea and the GFS, GEM show it over the western Coast of Alaska. I could absolutely see the FV3, ECWMF improve the amplification for a full on blast too. 25-30% chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 It's REAL NICE to have the EURO/EPS on board, maybe fully on board leading the way.Here's the 12z EURO EPS out to day 15. Blocking stays in place offshore, it looks like we're going to have lots of chances to score in the next 2 to 3 weeks. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 If the GFS flips on the druncle this place is gonna go bonkers. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Here's the 12z EURO EPS out to day 15. Blocking stays in place offshore, it looks like we're going to have lots of chances to score in the next 2 to 3 weeks. Encouraging. I'd like to see the energy over the Western Bering held back and improved amplification. I'm not complaining however. Thanks for posting. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Meanwhile 46* and beautiful Perfect weather for landscaping crew finishing up my patio. Say goodbye to mud and grass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Never take surprises for granted!I won't for now on. I wasn't expecting anything so I was kind of bummed that I missed most of it. When I finally looked outside my window there was already 2-3 inches on the ground. Fortunately there would be 2 more snowstorms to come that week that I was able to enjoy from start to finish. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Also, the region is going to be brought to its knees if this happens and we have more than 2 inches widespread from EUG to YVR. Tons of folks around town haven't been paying attention to forecasts and aren't watching the news. The weather has been so monotonous here that people are just assuming that will continue. This is going to hit like a ton of bricks...if it pans out. 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Had a low of 34 in town. EUG got down to 32 again so score another one there. Only 45 right now so a bit cooler than I was expecting. Beautiful sunshine. This should hopefully have a nice rise in numbers in the weeks to come. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 If this even comes close to verifying, the 2010s will easily go down as the decade where February got its groove back, if nothing else. If this works out, that will mean 2011, 2014, 2017, 2018, and 2019 all had meaningful lowland events. As opposed to just 3 Februaries in the 2000s, 4 in the 1990s, 4 in the 80s, and 5 in the 70s. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 I’m not even going to tell my wife, just going to let it be a surprise!! Really need to get my new weather station up and running!!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 I’m not even going to tell my wife, just going to let it be a surprise!! Really need to get my new weather station up and running!!! Let it hit her like a ton of bricks!! 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 18z ICON is underway, hopefully it does something useful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Yes, don't day a goddam thing. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 I’m not even going to tell my wife, just going to let it be a surprise!! Really need to get my new weather station up and running!!!Phone apps have already littered FB with a snowflake Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew. Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 No one breath Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 No one breath Not a single one? Also, should amend...unless you're inhaling cannabis. 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Talking to folks in Atlanta and sounds like they got blanked. So all those schools closed for nothing! Looking at pictures from the area it looks like they got a dusting up north at best. So with my “the SE gets the goods and we get screwed” index, we are back in play for the potential for something to happen. Totally crazy to me that they would even do that. None of the models really indicated much of anything down there so it's not even a legitimate bust. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew. Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Not a single one? Also, should amend...unless you're inhaling cannabis.Naw, just mai tai's in Maui. Brain cells are gone now, along with proper grammar. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Naw, just mai tai's in Maui. Brain cells are gone now, along with proper grammar. I hope you are gonna get back in time for the goodies...if they materialise. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Looks like the icon is going to dig more. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew. Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 I hope you are gonna get back in time for the goodies...if they materialise. Yep! Fly back into PDX Saturday evening just in time....hopefully 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Sounder Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 If this works out, that will mean 2011, 2014, 2017, 2018, and 2019 all had meaningful lowland events. As opposed to just 3 Februaries in the 2000s, 4 in the 1990s, 4 in the 80s, and 5 in the 70s.So... 5 events in a decade compared to 3, 4, 4, and... 5. What a weird decade!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 So... 5 events in a decade compared to 3, 4, 4, and... 5. What a weird decade!!! I'm trying to imagine JFK saying this. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 18z ICON(Hasselhoff model) Day 5. BITTER cold into central and southern BC to nearly the Canadian border and seems the deep, arctic air is progressing nicely well west of the Canadian Rockies too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 ICON also shows the block strengthening Day 4-5 with a good degree of amplification. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 ICON also shows the block strengthening Day 4-5 with a good degree of amplification. That crazy tilted horseshoe of Arctic cold is so beautiful on historic weather maps. This might set up just right to do that. Or it might not...cannot let the guard down. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 So... 5 events in a decade compared to 3, 4, 4, and... 5. What a weird decade!!! Yeah. Although 2011 was the most anomalous, region-wide Arctic air mass the PNW had seen in February since 1989. And 2014 had the most significant, widespread lowland snowfall (with several events) of any February probably since 1990. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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