TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Reload is trending west and warmer late next week. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Reload is trending west and warmer late next week. HAHAHAHA Is it a "reload" if we never got a load? 5 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 856 PM PST Thu Jan 31 2019 The bigger story continues to be the upper low that is expected to drop down from the north on Sunday. This will bring showers and colder air Sunday night into Monday. The models have trended a bit further west with the low, which may mean more moisture, but may also delay the colder air. This means the most likely scenario - at this time - is for temperatures to be cool enough for rain to transition to snow over the north interior lowlands Sunday afternoon. Cold air is expected to push south across the rest of the area Sunday night with snow levels lowering to near sea level and a threat of lowland accumulations. The big question remains whether or not the precipitation will be decreasing as the cool air works far enough south for more widespread snow. As is often the case in these scenarios it may end up being hit and miss Sunday night for areas south of Skagit County. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Very unlikely that PDX sees anything below 39-40 for highs at current face value. Good call... ECMWF shows 39, 39, 43, 45 for Mon-Thurs at PDX. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Reload is trending west and warmer late next week. But also more cold air closer. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Amazing to think up until yesterday afternoon the models were showing the cold air just pouring in on Sunday...Sad trends my amigos. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Day 9 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Good call... ECMWF shows 39, 39, 43, 45 for Mon-Thurs at PDX.How about Seattle? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 But also more cold air closer. Its not too bad by day 9. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 How about Seattle? 34, 33, 39, 42 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Day 9 This one will trend east! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Reload still looks decent on the ECMWF. I am sure that will work out just fine. buwahahahahaha.... no. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 34, 33, 39, 42Highs or lows? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Reload is trending west and warmer late next week.Troll Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 ECMWF shows lots of rain for western WA next Friday... might be turning to snow late in the day though. Waiting for map to update. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Amazing to think up until yesterday afternoon the models were showing the cold air just pouring in on Sunday...Sad trends my amigos.Seems to be a pretty common outcome overall anymore:( Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Looks like instead of moving to Spokane later this year we will be moving later next week. F*ck this climate.Hang in there man. Still a few days out and the EPS continues to show colder weather in the long range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 The euro is horrible at predicting highs with any sort of outflow around here. All the models are. Last year it said like 37 for Bellingham and it was 29 or 30. I knock off 3 from what it says. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Big time cold on the Euro. 10 days away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 There is some lowland snow late Friday night into Saturday morning... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Big time cold on the Euro. 10 days away.this can only end well Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Big time cold on the Euro. 10 days away.Warning shot next week...real deal in 10 days! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 ALWAYS 10 DAYS AWAY. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Big time cold on the Euro. 10 days away.Keep pounding on that door and it will eventually break. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Still going on Saturday morning... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Warning shot next week...real deal in 10 days!This. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Alright. No night shift for me. I have to get sleep or I'm going to be ill from exhaustion. Cya for 12z. Good night. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Even though the deformation band is now being depicted on the GFS, GEM and Euro over PDX, it is hard enough to forecast these bands just a day out let alone 3+ days out. I have very little confidence in what the euro currently shows for snow in PDX. Given that we have quite cold air still nearby to the north and east, potentially solid gorge outflow and a low offshore with cold air spilling out over the waters, it'll probably be a pretty dynamic situation and someone somewhere in the lowlands will probably score but doubt we can be too much more specific right now. Have to admit the GFS more than held its own vs the ECMWF/EPS, annoyingly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakeinthevalley Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 HAHAHAHA Is it a "reload" if we never got a load?Exactly what I was thinking! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Tremendous amount of foothills snow late next week. I like this EURO run for that... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Still going on Saturday morning... Looks good for Timmy Supercell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 ECMWF shows lowland snow next Saturday... but high temps are around 40 that day from Seattle southward. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 The new possibility of gorge outflow is something well worth watching. We've seen a surprise or two before. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 -7C 850 mb temps at hour 222 from EUG to Seattle. Cold onshore flow. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Cold onshore flow on day 10 (next Sunday) with a great c-zone right over Randy's house! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Breezy, dry, and a warm 48 currently. Smells like spring outside! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Even though the deformation band is now being depicted on the GFS, GEM and Euro over PDX, it is hard enough to forecast these bands just a day out let alone 3+ days out. I have very little confidence in what the euro currently shows for snow in PDX. Given that we have quite cold air still nearby to the north and east, potentially solid gorge outflow and a low offshore with cold air spilling out over the waters, it'll probably be a pretty dynamic situation and someone somewhere in the lowlands will probably score but doubt we can be too much more specific right now. Have to admit the GFS more than held its own vs the ECMWF/EPS, annoyingly.I'm cautiously optimistic at the moment. The deformation band is going to be the true wildcard in all of this. This time period before the events of February 6 2014, January 10 2017 and February 18 2018 really didn't show much of anything if anything at all leading up to those events. That's what gives me hope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Tremendous amount of foothills snow late next week. I like this EURO run for that... I don't see how you and Timmy can't score with this given your elevations, D**n near a lock IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 ECMWF shows lowland snow next Saturday... but high temps are around 40 that day from Seattle southward. Cold onshore flow. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Wow, the EURO shows about a foot and a half of snow up here later next week. Still delivers several inches early in the week too. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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