January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Esquimalt]

Im feeling good about this.  But none of the local weather forecasters are biting yet.  

[Requiem]

As long as we get wind, I’m happy!!!

 

If we actually got 50+ gusts and no snow that say, I'd be sated.

[MossMan]

Windy! But dry at the moment in the rain shadow.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS Ensembles - Portland. Coldest run yet for that January 6th-8th time frame. Hmmm!

 

This all entirely colder onshore flow wrapping around the area of low pressure rather than colder air sucked in from the Gorge. I can tell this by looking at The Dalles ensembles and that the mean temp is roughly the same or a touch warmer than PDX. If we had colder offshore flow the opposite would be the case.

[Requiem]

6z GFS Ensembles - Portland. Coldest run yet for that January 6th-8th time frame. Hmmm!

 

This all entirely colder onshore flow wrapping around the area of low pressure rather than colder air sucked in from the Gorge. I can tell this by looking at The Dalles ensembles and that the mean temp is roughly the same or a touch warmer than PDX. If we had colder offshore flow the opposite would be the case.

 

Good for snow?

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS has begun!

 

Probabilities
Portland-Eugene
Wind gusts 35-45mph: 30-40%
Wind gusts 50mph+: 15-25%

 

PDX Metro
Strong East wind/Snow: 10-15%

 

Gorge
Snow/Ice event: 15-25%

 

Think Cold and SNOW!!!!
❄ ❄ ☃ ❄ ❄

[Requiem]

12z GFS has begun!

 

Probabilities

Portland-Eugene

Wind gusts 35-45mph: 30-40%

Wind gusts 50mph+: 15-25%

 

PDX Metro

Strong East wind/Snow: 10-15%

 

Gorge

Snow/Ice event: 15-25%

 

Think Cold and SNOW!!!!

❄ ❄ ☃ ❄ ❄

 

You know what? For once, I'm rooting for the snow.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 1

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2019010312/024/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Low is deepening much more than previous 4 runs. 8-13mb stronger.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 strong low to our southwest

[Timmy]

Hour 60 already looks drastically different than the 06z did

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2019010312/048/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

 

[Requiem]

Day 3

 

 

Different from last run, for sure. Closer and more organized low.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FV-3 was pretty good once again!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2019010312/072/500h_anom.na.png

[Timmy]

Hour 90 is gonna be interesting for someone pdx-north

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3.5 Oh boy! 977mb low deepening approaching OR Coast

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Day 3

 

 

That's some solid snow for Timmy and I. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Big wind storm Salem to Eugene!

[Timmy]

10mb stronger than 00z. Probably means it's going to go too far north for snow prospects. Possible windstorm, perhaps.

tracks right over pdx

[Gradient Keeper]

Big wind storm Salem to Eugene!

WOW SLE-EUG of -14mb!!!

[Requiem]

Big wind storm Salem to Eugene!

 

WOW SLE-EUG of -14mb!!!

 

I'm sure some blustery winds in PDX too.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2019010312/096/500h_anom.na.png

[Timmy]

I'm sure some blustery winds in PDX too.

not really

[Gradient Keeper]

Low #3 organizing

[Requiem]

not really

 

Oh.

haha

[van city]

Oh.

haha

Ha ha.

[Requiem]

Ha ha.

 

Hee hee.

[Blizzard777]

The euro and gfs are on-board. What could possibly go wrong?

Lol,

That’s like saying “I’ll be right back” in a horror movie

I like it!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hour 96 is a quick shot of heavy snow up here. Then hour 120 deformation band lifts north snow to rain across W. Washington.

[Timmy]

Ha ha.

Want a good laugh compare the gem and gfs at hour 90. Gem has no discernible low

[Requiem]

Seattle snow, Portland bluster?

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 nope

 

[Esquimalt]

Day 5 nope

 

That low can’t stay offshore if we want cold.

[Timmy]

Seattle snow, Portland bluster?

 

im not sure you know what wind looks like on this model.

[Gradient Keeper]

Lovely model consistency Days 2-4 even. Ridiculous

 

Day 5 500mb

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2019010312/120/500h_anom.na.png

[Requiem]

im not sure you know what wind looks like on this model.

 

The 850 MB winds look decently high. Listen, if you want to call me out or criticize literally every comment I make, feel free, but know that it's not the most fun thing in the world.

[Requiem]

im not sure you know what wind looks like on this model.

 

But anyways, you are probably right. No wind, no snow, all good.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2019010312/144/500h_anom.na.png