January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

Look at all that red!!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z is a touch cooler in the Thursday/Friday period, though not near what some of the ensembles have been showing. 

[Front Ranger]

How does the 18z pattern and temps compare to what happened Christmas 2017? Seems sorta similar from what I remember...although I believe there was already a cooler/drier air mass in place for that.

[TT-SEA]

At the lower levels it doesn't always warm up that much after warm frontal passage in the absence of solid mixing, but above 1500' that would be a very warm day. The models/ensembles have been consistently showing that next Tuesday/Wednesday will be warm, so I don't know why this is bothering people. Other than you obviously timed posting this just to mess with people. 

 

 

Yeah... you could post the details from the ECMWF model but not me.    

 

Ironically... if it showed highs in the 20s on Tuesday then I would be posting that as well.

 

For me... the warm temps on the ECMWF run really temper any excitement.   A sloppy inch of snow followed by a 55-degree afternoon would not very interesting to me.    But that is just me!    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ah yes, I stand corrected. Low level cold? No, no, no. 850s are warm!

 

I guess we should all just pack up and go home. The ECMWF surface maps have spoken... Nothing but sloppy, wet snow with a quick changeover to rain followed by spring-like temps.

 

The map he posted has nothing to do with earlier snow chances. And yes, if there is snow early next week it will definitely melt Tuesday afternoon or Wednesday. Which is generally what happens when we pull off snowfall in marginal situations. 

[Phil]

Back home now. Let’s see how the models respond.

 

I bet they switch back to the +PNA/Hudson Bay vortex pattern with time.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

Yeah... you could post the details from the ECMWF model but not me.    

 

Ironically... if it showed highs in the 20s on Tuesday then I would be posting that as well.

 

For me... the warm temps on the ECMWF run really temper any excitement.   A sloppy inch of snow followed by a 55-degree afternoon would not very interesting to me.    But that is just me!    

 

Yeah, but an inch of snow for you is pretty run of the mill. Any accumulating snow is a big deal in the lowlands. For me the most interesting period is Sunday night/Monday morning. The warm front lifting north would at best give me a quick 1-2" that turns to rain after an hour or two. 

[TT-SEA]

Ah yes, I stand corrected. Low level cold? No, no, no. 850s are warm!

 

I guess we should all just pack up and go home. The ECMWF surface maps have spoken... Nothing but sloppy, wet snow with a quick changeover to rain followed by spring-like temps.

 

Before we know it, cherry blossoms will be blooming!     

 

The ECMWF is the best model for handling low level cold as well.   It does not get fooled as easily.    If it has the 500mb pattern correct then it will be pretty warm next Tuesday... even if its cooler than it shows now.  

 

That is assuming it has the 500mb pattern correct.

[TT-SEA]

There it is...

 

Who cares?   

 

I did not create the ECMWF map.   It is what it is. 

 

Ignore it.   You can do whatever you want.   Its actual model data for day 5.   

[Front Ranger]

The ECMWF is the best model for handling low level cold as well.   It does not get fooled as easily.    If it has the 500mb pattern correct then it will be pretty warm next Tuesday... even if its cooler than it shows now.  

 

That is assuming it has the 500mb pattern correct.

 

It's significantly different than the GFS with the surface lows, that's for sure.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How does the 18z pattern and temps compare to what happened Christmas 2017? Seems sorta similar from what I remember...although I believe there was already a cooler/drier air mass in place for that.

 

Maybe the warm front lifting north is similar, but if I recall there was a lot of low level cold associated with that event PDX north. 

 

The 24-48 hours before the 2017 event looked much different than what the models are showing with this. If I recall kind of a slow bleed of the drier/low level cold air. 

 

The upper level cold sets up way further south with this, but we probably won't have near the amount of low level cold to work with.

[ShawniganLake]

It’s pissin rain here this afternoon.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5-11" of snow expected above 3500' from Mt. Jefferson north tonight into tomorrow morning. Mountains should be getting some good snow over the next week.

[ShawniganLake]

Maybe the warm front lifting north is similar, but if I recall there was a lot of low level cold associated with that event PDX north.

 

The 24-48 hours before the 2017 event looked much different than what the models are showing with this. If I recall kind of a slow bleed of the drier/low level cold air.

 

The upper level cold sets up way further south with this, but we probably won't have near the amount of low level cold to work with.

I seem to remember the front last Christmas being shredded pretty good as it came ashore as well. Almost no precip made it into the BC lower mainland

[SilverFallsAndrew]

After hour 180 things get really ugly really fast.

[HighlandExperience]

I seem to remember the front last Christmas being shredded pretty good as it came ashore as well. Almost no precip made it into the BC lower mainland

That was a beautiful event for Puget Sound. I remember a solid inch Christmas Eve, and another 1-3 inches Christmas morning with snow showers lingering into the afternoon.

 

The only memorable event last winter. Hard to believe nothing else really happened after that.

[ShawniganLake]

After hour 180 things get really ugly really fast.

Should be able to keep our late January streak intact.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

BTW the ICON is not on board with the GFS for the Sunday night system/low. Pretty amazing we are about 3 days out and we can't even have the models agree on if a low is going to really develop or not. The ICON has about a 1002mb low scooting up the coast with lots of rain, while of course the GFS shows that very dynamic low roaring through.

[ShawniganLake]

That was a beautiful event for Puget Sound. I remember a solid inch Christmas Eve, and another 1-3 inches Christmas morning with snow showers lingering into the afternoon.

 

The only memorable event last winter. Hard to believe nothing else really happened after that.

I think it colded and snowed in Oregon in February. Greater Vancouver did okay too IIRC.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That was a beautiful event for Puget Sound. I remember a solid inch Christmas Eve, and another 1-3 inches Christmas morning with snow showers lingering into the afternoon.

 

The only memorable event last winter. Hard to believe nothing else really happened after that.

 

You guys didn't score anything in Late February? 

 

The Christmas event was literally nothing down here. I had a very light dusting at 1600' that quickly turned to rain. No one south of PDX had any snow. The 540 thickness line barely even made it south of PDX with that. 

 

On the other hand Late February had a lot of goodies down here even at the lowest elevations. The notable exception of course was Salem which only had about 1/2" basically because they got missed by the heavier bands of precip. I drove from Eugene home one night and it was snowing the entire way with about 2-4" in Southern Marion County between Jefferson and Stayton. As has been discussed PDX really over achieved with that event too. 

[Perturbed Member]

 

 

A cold 35F rain here with a small warm tongue above. Would probably get some flakes before that though. Especially as the low prior to this one departs. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

In looking up Eugene's stats from February, I was stunned to see that EUG actually recorded snowfall. 2.0" on the 22nd. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

 

A cold 35F rain here with a small warm tongue above. Would probably get some flakes before that though. Especially as the low prior to this one departs. 

 

In NW Oregon that is probably the best chance for flakes. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I think it colded and snowed in Oregon in February. Greater Vancouver did okay too IIRC.

 

Yes, everywhere in Oregon had snow last year except for a small strip west of Salem and Albany from Dallas to north Corvallis. This area hasn't seen snow since March 6, 2017. And it's not an awful location normally, just got unlucky.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

In looking up Eugene's stats from February, I was stunned to see that EUG actually recorded snowfall. 2.0" on the 22nd. 

 

Naturally I moved from Monmouth to Springfield afterwards. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Naturally I moved from Monmouth to Springfield just in time. 

 

I knew it had snowed in Eugene because my in-laws live like 2-3 miles from EUG and they sent me some pics of snow on the ground, plus when I was driving back the night before it had started snowing as I left. But I was shocked they actually recorded it for posterity. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Subtle but interesting differences even between the FV-3 and Operational to hour 72. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like I had 18.2" of snow last February. I had measurable snowfall every day from the 18-25th. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I really hope someone scores with this.  Would love to see the photos/videos.

[Perturbed Member]

In NW Oregon that is probably the best chance for flakes. 

 

Yeah think it will come down to how long the precip hangs around after that low passes to the east. 522 line getting that close with offshore flow should be enough to see something. 

 

More concerning though is the poor model agreement. Hopefully we get some semblance of it tonight. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

If the gfs verifies it would be the largest overrunning event for hood canal in ten years. And probable for other places as well

[Esquimalt]

If the gfs verifies it would be the largest overrunning event for hood canal in ten years. And probable for other places as well

A lot of ensemble members are suggesting something big is gonna happen. Wow. Also, the ensembles have moved away from a significant warmup on the 8th and 9th, and there are a few members suggesting the snow may carry on and never turn to rain!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I added up my 2018 precip and it was an even drier year than I realized. About 20" below normal. My location is probably a bit wetter than Silver Falls, but its a decent comp and what I base my departures on, so if anything the actual departure was a bit greater.

January: 11.84" (+1.21")

February: 5.36" (- 3.23")

March:     5.17" (- 3.88")

April:       9.48"  (+ 3.28")

May:       0.52"  (- 4.16")

June:      1.71"  (- 1.60")

July:         T       (- 0.95")

August:   0.04"  (- 1.24")

September: 0.78" ( -2.03")

October:  5.86"  (- 0.43")

November 6.94" (- 3.92")

December: 9.93" (- 1.49")

 

Total 57.63" (- 18.44")

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A lot of ensemble members are suggesting something big is gonna happen. Wow. Also, the ensembles have moved away from a significant warmup on the 8th and 9th, and there are a few members suggesting the snow may carry on and never turn to rain!

 

The 2nd dip around the 10/11th isn't as big. But yeah, its a bit cooler mid-week. 

[Esquimalt]

A lot of ensemble members are suggesting something big is gonna happen. Wow. Also, the ensembles have moved away from a significant warmup on the 8th and 9th, and there are a few members suggesting the snow may carry on and never turn to rain!

For Victoria, all 20 ensemble members suggest we see at least 0.1 inch of snow, although when it will happen is highly uncertain.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At 10z Monday morning 11 of the ensembles are at -5C or below at PDX, including the operational. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FV-3 is interesting. It just runs that low Sunday night due east along the OR/CA border. Then it i much cooler than the operational with the troughing around the 10th. 

[Esquimalt]

FV-3 is interesting. It just runs that low Sunday night due east along the OR/CA border. Then it i much cooler than the operational with the troughing around the 10th. 

The FV3 has been showing a massive snow event here from that system on the 10th for the past 5 or 6 runs.  20 to 30 inches on those low resolution maps 

[Omegaraptor]

Drought is receding in Oregon*. Portland went from D2 to D1.

 

*For now

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Already looks like the FV-3 will be a lot better in the long range.