January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Esquimalt]

And your home is 500-600 ish/?? I am at 564' which works well in heavy convergence zones as I will drive down to the ferry dock at around 250' or less there will be no snow. The water really just keeps it a couple degrees on the wrong side of the goods.

Nope, my home is at 6 feet.  It takes quite a bit for me to score 

[Gradient Keeper]

GFS trended to the weaker ECMWF/GEM 2nd low not even developing

[Requiem]

No central OR windstorm, low is a lot weaker.

[Requiem]

 

GFS trended to the weaker ECMWF/GEM 2nd low not even developing

 

 

Sad that the weaker solutions always pan out, Don't remember the last time a low pressure system didn't trend weaker.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[Timmy]

Sad that the weaker solutions always pan out, Don't remember the last time a low pressure system didn't trend weaker.

that’s because it has never happened.

[TT-SEA]

Maybe some snow for the EPSL on Monday morning... time of day is favorable and there is no southerly flow.  

 

[kokaneekidz]

Maybe some snow for the EPSL on Monday morning... time of day is favorable and there is no southerly flow.  

 

Sure has the signature of a convergence zone or maybe deformation boundary smack dab in the Metro area. Let's do this...  ***********

[Gradient Keeper]

Hate to say it, but this run is going to be about as enjoyable as a Christmas stocking full of dog turds and a broken watch.

[kokaneekidz]

Nope, my home is at 6 feet.  It takes quite a bit for me to score 

Darn.... Well you need a good Fraser outflow event to help you out then.

[Requiem]

Hate to say it, but this run is going to be about as enjoyable as a Christmas stocking full of dog turds and a broken watch.

 

Everything is weaker.

[Phil]

On the plane now, about to take off for home.

 

The dominoes will collapse once I land.

I knew it.

 

This happens all the time. When I travel and can’t comment here, the models decide to project interesting weather. When I come back home, everything returns to normal.

[Esquimalt]

GFS is much warmer, quicker transition to rain.

[Timmy]

Yeah it shows zero snow here so far

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[Deweydog]

Tim’s fault.

[Requiem]

https://twitter.com/KelleyKOIN/status/1080919650769104896

 

Rest in peace, Scary Sunday Eve Storm.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM through Day 5 is even worse

 

Back to the enthralling 00z GFS

Day 5

 

[Requiem]

00z GEM through Day 5 is even worse

 

Back to the enthralling 00z GFS

Day 5

 

 

Wow, we just can't have nice things, can we.

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow, we just can't have nice things, can we.

Not with split flow inside 130 W.

 

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 34 minutes

[Timmy]

The gfs really went toward the gem.

[Gradient Keeper]

The gfs really went toward the gem.

I suspect the GEM/ECMWF were handling the upper level pattern better recognizing the split flow inside 135-130 W.

 

6z GEFS(Pivotal site) in 7 hours 46 minutes (4:00 AM)

[Requiem]

That was a very depressing run. So much for any kind of wind event, but more importantly, even snow chances have been reduced (I know it was a long shot anyways).

[Esquimalt]

That was a very depressing run. So much for any kind of wind event, but more importantly, even snow chances have been reduced (I know it was a long shot anyways).

Well ensembles haven’t come around yet. I’m not too worried.

[Requiem]

Well ensembles haven’t come around yet. I’m not too worried.

 

I think the loss of that adorable little low going through central OR really has me beat. I loved that thing so much. Gosh, we just need a Storm King redux to save this winter.

[Esquimalt]

I think the loss of that adorable little low going through central OR really has me beat. I loved that thing so much. Gosh, we just need a Storm King redux to save this winter.

It’s just the operational run. Don’t fret.

[Requiem]

It’s just the operational run. Don’t fret.

 

Yeah, I'm just being silly. Thank you for the reassurance.

[BLI snowman]

1991-92!!!!!!!!!

[Jesse]

Everyone’s fault but Tim’s .

Fixed.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Sadly I think next winter will be even worse with less snow in the mtns.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Crazy looking rain shadow today. Currently getting heavy rain with over 1.6" of rain here on the day so far and nearly 2" since yesterday afternoon, meanwhile some places across the Strait with have only seen a few hundreths of an inch. Some parts of Langford (on the way to Shawnigan) have received nearly 4" since yesterday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks as if I should have skipped this run.

[Requiem]

Crazy looking rain shadow today. Currently getting heavy rain with over 1.6" of rain here on the day so far and nearly 2" since yesterday afternoon, meanwhile some places across the Strait with have only seen a few hundreths of an inch. Some parts of Langford (on the way to Shawnigan) have received nearly 4" since yesterday.

 

Lucky, maybe I should move up there some day. Weather seems a lot more fun.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Then I actually looked at the run. Doesn't look bad. Pretty similar to the FV-3. 

[Deweydog]

Then I actually looked at the run. Doesn't look bad. Pretty similar to the FV-3.

#528line

[SilverFallsAndrew]

#528line

 

As long as that old friend stays nearby you won't hear me whining.

[Phil]

Then I actually looked at the run.

 

Doesn't look bad at my location. Pretty similar to the FV3.

[Phil]

First hint of downward propagation/-NAM on the 00z GFS starting during the mid-month period.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

Then I actually looked at the run.

 

Doesn't look bad at my location. Pretty similar to the FV3.

 

Just doesn't have a low taking a track no other model showed. No one wants a "wind storm" anyway.

[Requiem]

Just doesn't have a low taking a track no other model showed. No one wants a "wind storm" anyway.

 

Correction, you don't want a windstorm.