January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 12z ensembles are about 3C cooler around the 10th/11th. At 16z on the 10th the warmest member is +2.5C the coldest -8.5C at PDX. 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF Day 1

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2019010312/024/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Is this a record?

If that really occurs, yes by a considerable number. I believe the current record is 13.6? I'll have to look that up on Wolf Read's The Storm King site. http://www.climate.washington.edu/stormking/

[Requiem]

If that really occurs, yes by a considerable number. I believe the current record is 13.6? I'll have to look that up on Wolf Read's The Storm King site. http://www.climate.washington.edu/stormking/

 

EURO was showing some ridiculous storm back in early December- showed 55-90 gusts in the W. Valley.....

[luvssnow_spokane]

Best snow opportunities of the season coming up for us Puget Sounders.

BUT will it be enough for Rex do this? HE loves snow!    (probably not)

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wow nice model trends. When I'm up here i only get service at the mercantile store 12 miles from cabin. Huge potential for snow around puget sound and a great hood canal setup.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2019010312/048/500h_anom.na.png

[Deweydog]

So, in all, next week looks interesting to say the least, correct? One question though- a lot of models are showing intensifying low pressure systems yet the jet stream isn't that strong (to my limited knowledge). Please tell me I'm wrong.

These systems are pretty compact, not really the type that need a ton of jet support. It’s one of the reasons model consistency is pretty low.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Snow for Washington at peak.

LOL!!  It seems like the Swamp screw zone is in full effect again. NOT complaining!! I just find it funny how often this occurs. Consider PuyallupJohn and I the sacrificial snowless lambs.  YES, I know it will change I just find it a common theme through my 15 years of living here. 

[Esquimalt]

CFS weeklies are suggesting a cooler than normal last week of jan and first week of feb fwiw. 

[Requiem]

These systems are pretty compact, not really the type that need a ton of jet support. It’s one of the reasons model consistency is pretty low.

 

This will be interesting to watch! Thank you for the info.

[seattleweatherguy]

Best snow opportunities of the season coming up for us Puget Sounders.

When?

[Esquimalt]

When?

Sunday-Tuesday.  Looks like a close brush with a low going through northern oregon and then a potentially potent overrunning event

[Requiem]

So, FWIW, the record for gradient in the Willamette Valley is a massive 15.2 EUG-PDX during the monstrous December 4th, 1951 storm.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2019010312/072/500h_anom.na.png

[luvssnow_spokane]

850's @ DAY 3

 

 

[Phil]

Phil will be the first to say that when he’s on vacation good weather happens here

On the plane now, about to take off for home.

 

The dominoes will collapse once I land.

[Requiem]

You guys are the experts in interpreting the models. I would really appreciate if you guys'd tell me about the status of the various storms in next week's complex setup

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

On another note, snowstorm at the OK Corral!

 

https://www.facebook.com/historictombstone/videos/516805308810822/

[Esquimalt]

On the plane now, about to take off for home.

 

The dominoes will collapse once I land.

I'll enjoy the euro run while I can. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2019010312/096/500h_anom.na.png

[Blizzard777]

Holy ...... PDX-EUG gradient -19mb !

 

us_model-en-087-0_modusa_2019010312_90_484_149.png

Oh my! Dads going to have and interesting celebration of life service if this verifies !!!

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through the weekend...

 

[Gradient Keeper]

EURO not on board with GFS for wind storm.

[Blizzard777]

Just peeked at my rain gauge back at home

.78 so far

48*

[Esquimalt]

Whats the snow thru the 8th?

[Requiem]

EURO not on board with GFS for wind storm.

 

EURO still has a decently strong storm headed towards the coast at hour 96.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2019010312/120/500h_anom.na.png

[TT-SEA]

EURO not on board with GFS for wind storm.

 

 

Not even close... here is Sunday afternoon.

 

[TT-SEA]

Whats the snow thru the 8th?

 

Not updated yet.

[Requiem]

Not even close... here is Sunday afternoon.

 

 

Not the first time they've disagreed this much

[luvssnow_spokane]

WARM...  <_>

 

 

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

4-6 feet of snow on the ground in Seattle by January 10th, 1880.

 

Wow, I can't even imagine what that would look like today, let alone how the region would respond. 

 

We would need a whole lot of salt...

Well it would be great if it happened during the Viaduct closer then that would be the least of their worries.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2019010312/144/500h_anom.na.png

[luvssnow_spokane]

TODAY (Southerly Gradients in full force = Climo+)

 

 

PREVIOUS

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

TODAY (Southerly Gradients in full force = Climo+)

 

ecmwf_T850_nwus_7.png

 

PREVIOUS

 

ecmwf_T850_nwus_8.png

 

Massive buzzkill.

[Gradient Keeper]

N o p e ‍

[Esquimalt]

The euro caved to the GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2019010312/168/500h_anom.na.png

[ShawniganLake]

Spokane AFD thinks it is odd that the GFS cools the atmosphere before that system early next week because the storm is coming from the South.

Probably not so much for Esquimalt’s location but most of Vancouver Island actually does better for snowfall when the systems approach from the SW. easterly flow and heavier precip rates. In NW flow we get shadowed and the SE winds ahead of the front scour out the cold quite quickly