Tom Posted December 29, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2018 On my phone and the 12z EPS is steady as she goes and nearly a carbon copy to last nights 00z snow mean. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 29, 2018 Report Share Posted December 29, 2018 On my phone and the 12z EPS is steady as she goes and nearly a carbon copy to last nights 00z snow mean.Nice. That even threw a few inches my way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 29, 2018 Report Share Posted December 29, 2018 Thermal issues for E WI on the 18z NAM. The low is further west, keeping the warmer air in place. But, it’s the NAM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 29, 2018 Report Share Posted December 29, 2018 Hard not to get excited that some snow may fall, but sure seems like a really marginal set up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 29, 2018 Report Share Posted December 29, 2018 3k nam is a little better up this way but yeah 12k was warm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 29, 2018 Report Share Posted December 29, 2018 18z ICON back to the stronger snowier further NW solution. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 29, 2018 Report Share Posted December 29, 2018 18z ICON back to the stronger snowier further NW solution.2-4" for much of E IA and WI. Euro and Ukie remain the snowiest. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 29, 2018 Report Share Posted December 29, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 29, 2018 Report Share Posted December 29, 2018 Yeah Icon back to what it was showing yesterday with the snowier NW solution. E IA and S WI with a nice hit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 29, 2018 Report Share Posted December 29, 2018 3pm disco from mkx saying trace to maybe 2". Rain snow mix 6:1 to 8:1 snow ratios. snooze fest according to them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 29, 2018 Report Share Posted December 29, 2018 18z RGEM looks really phased and north as well 998 L just north of STL at 48 Euro/Ukie for thé win? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 29, 2018 Report Share Posted December 29, 2018 RGEM at 51 looks a lot like icon https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018122918&fh=48 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 29, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2018 18z RGEM looks really phased and north as well 998 L just north of STL at 48 Euro/Ukie for thé win?Hopefully that defo band can over perform and cool the air aloft if the dynamics are better. The Euro shows this clearly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
badgerwx Posted December 29, 2018 Report Share Posted December 29, 2018 Ever since I started following this forum, I find myself second guessing my local WFO...lol 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 29, 2018 Report Share Posted December 29, 2018 Gfs is caving a bit more each run 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 29, 2018 Report Share Posted December 29, 2018 DMX with a long detailed disco only to say a light glazing of ice and less than an inch of snow. Lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 29, 2018 Report Share Posted December 29, 2018 Liking the trends here on some of the models, including the GFS. Northern piece able to sneak far enough south to deliver some snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 29, 2018 Report Share Posted December 29, 2018 Needless to say, offices are not excited about any good snow amounts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 29, 2018 Report Share Posted December 29, 2018 MPX: Warm airaloft could result in a mix of sleet/freezing rain and snow nearthe onset until the column cools overnight. This could cut down onsnowfall totals a bit initially. The brunt of the precip willdevelop late Sunday night with a nice frontogenetically drivenband of snow stretching across central MN. Models are impressivewith QPF, ranging from 0.3 to 0.5 inches. Ensemble members showgood clustering within this range as well. Could see some 6 inchtotals in places. Eventually this band will swing southeast andbring snow across the rest of the area, particularly Monday andMonday evening. Amounts in these areas will be ligher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 29, 2018 Report Share Posted December 29, 2018 DMX with a long detailed disco only to say a light glazing of ice and less than an inch of snow. LolI rarely read their AFD's anymore. Their winter forecasting skills as of late have been seriously lacking and warm bias has always been evident. Case in point today's high was supposed to be 27F from the morning forecast, so far it's been only 20F. also ; The WWA that most of C.IA was put in yesterday AM was only issued because of the reports of FZDZ-- not a forecast but a nowcast. THe previous day a SWS was issued for a line of TS's for gusty winds and small hail, which never materialized. I can do better on my own and with the info provided here. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 29, 2018 Report Share Posted December 29, 2018 FV3 caving to the Euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 30, 2018 Report Share Posted December 30, 2018 EPS Control very similar to the Euro Op, even slightly more robust with the snow in Iowa. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 30, 2018 Report Share Posted December 30, 2018 How’s it look in WI? (Euro control) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 30, 2018 Report Share Posted December 30, 2018 How’s it look in WI? (Euro control) very good. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/wisconsin/m0_snow-depth-in/20190102-1800z.html 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 30, 2018 Report Share Posted December 30, 2018 How’s it look in WI? (Euro control) 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 30, 2018 Report Share Posted December 30, 2018 NAM just caved to the euro big time in terms of phasing/precip etc 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 30, 2018 Report Share Posted December 30, 2018 really liking the NAM.... Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 30, 2018 Report Share Posted December 30, 2018 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2018123000&fh=48 Solid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 30, 2018 Report Share Posted December 30, 2018 Nam with nearly 10 inches of snow in eastern WI (lakeshore counties) http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2018123000&fh=57&r=us_mw&dpdt= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 30, 2018 Report Share Posted December 30, 2018 NAM is so far nw this run that east-central and southeast Iowa get rain while Des Moines gets snow. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 30, 2018 Report Share Posted December 30, 2018 NAM is so far nw this run that east-central and southeast Iowa get rain while Des Moines gets snow. It’s also mega amped, which is probably why. 3km NAM is farther SE. 2-4 for our area. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 30, 2018 Report Share Posted December 30, 2018 Funny thing is 3k is stronger with the low than 12k Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 30, 2018 Report Share Posted December 30, 2018 3KM NAM also a good jump to the NW Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 30, 2018 Report Share Posted December 30, 2018 Funny thing is 3k is stronger with the low than 12kI noticed that, but it’s still farther SE and with slightly less QPF in the cold sector. Interesting. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 30, 2018 Report Share Posted December 30, 2018 ICON also with a slight jump W in Iowa. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 30, 2018 Report Share Posted December 30, 2018 Not complaining , you get what you get ; but would be nice if this system were to slow down a little and not be so progressive. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 30, 2018 Report Share Posted December 30, 2018 RGEM also decent for C.IA Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 30, 2018 Report Share Posted December 30, 2018 RGEM also decent for C.IAIt’s good for much of IA and WI. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 30, 2018 Report Share Posted December 30, 2018 Another bump north on the gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 30, 2018 Report Share Posted December 30, 2018 Too far east for many of you. Helps allow the northern piece to slide in though. I’d take it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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