james1976 Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 Gonna suck if I get missed to the east after getting missed to the west all winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 Gfs/gem all east with no phase Both are really close but the northern stream is too far northeast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 Whoever started this thread jumped the gun on this. This doesn’t look like anything major at all. Light rain if that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 Whoever started this thread jumped the gun on this. This doesn’t look like anything major at all. Light rain if that.I’m guessing you didn’t look at the euro last night or icon this morning Phasing systems always give models problems because all the pieces have to come together just right 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 I’m guessing you didn’t look at the euro last night or icon this morning Phasing systems always give models problems because all the pieces have to come together just rightJust looked at that. Those look better. Just hope Iowa doesn’t miss out on whatever this system ends up doing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 GFS says no phase. ICON is now phasing later than previous runs and misses most of Iowa with any appreciable precip. We'll see what the Euro has to say, but these types of storms are tricky and rarely seem to materialize for eastern Iowa anyways. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 Yea the 12z (North) American suite is pretty terrible for the NYE system. Only an itty bitty bit of snow on the MW side but not really any cold sector precip at all. Seems these models come close to phasing, but just don’t. Like bud said, it seems phased systems never really work out over our area. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 Ukie looks better.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 Here's the 12z Ukie. Can't see p-type or temps at this hour, so we can only hope/assume this is snow. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 There's no cold air ahead of this system, so even the models that spin it up are showing most of the snow holding off until after it passes my area. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 I am hoping for no phase for my area. Thinking this would allow colder air to rush in quicker and have the southern streamer follow it. There is always hope for this. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 I am hoping for no phase for my area. Thinking this would allow colder air to rush in quicker and have the southern streamer follow it. There is always hope for this.That’s not nice 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 There's no cold air ahead of this system, so even the models that spin it up are showing most of the snow holding off until after it passes my area. what year is this again? 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 That’s not nice I'm very tempted to pull on that rope lying across Lk Mich as well, but you Wisco Cheese-heads deserve a hit even moreso than I do since I at least got in on Nov (he didn't) 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 I'm very tempted to pull on that rope lying across Lk Mich as well, but you Wisco Cheese-heads deserve a hit even moreso than I do since I at least got in on Nov (he didn't)Good luck over there. I’m rooting for ya. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 Euro looks way less phased More like GFS at 72 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 12z models are less phased across the board. Originally I thought a less phased solution was better but all that really nets is no cold sector precip at all especially with western extent. I think I want my phased solution back after seeing the latest model runs. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 That’s not nice Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 Euro https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018122812/wisconsin/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20190101-0300z.html It does end up phasing just a little later than last run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 Talk about having to thread the needle. Pretty small bullseye over Green Bay. Eurohttps://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018122812/wisconsin/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20190101-0300z.htmlIt does end up phasing just a little later than last run Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 18z NAM is trying to deliver. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=ncus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018122818&fh=84 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 Not to worry. If this one doesn’t work out, I hear there are BIG changes in... a couple more weeks. January is going to be Yuge! And if not, dont worry, February will be amazing - that’s when chicago has its 1 week of “winter” last year. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 Rain then cold all winter long, then final weeks we get all our snow and we make average snowfall. Really wasn't expecting this three years in a row. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 Icon nails eastern Iowa into northern IL/S WI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 Gfs moving further away from a phase need that trend to reverse... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 Weak stuff on gfs. Nam lookin better Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 29, 2018 Report Share Posted December 29, 2018 Icon nails eastern Iowa into northern IL/S WIWay to hang in there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 29, 2018 Report Share Posted December 29, 2018 Less phasing on 00z NAM. Money does well but he’s the only one. 3-5 for middle Wisconsin and northern MI. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 29, 2018 Report Share Posted December 29, 2018 how msn lookin? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 29, 2018 Report Share Posted December 29, 2018 how msn lookin?2-4 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 29, 2018 Report Share Posted December 29, 2018 I’m going all in on the ICON. Showing a few inches IMBY. What could go wrong? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 29, 2018 Report Share Posted December 29, 2018 GFS stays the same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 29, 2018 Report Share Posted December 29, 2018 CMC slightly better than it's 12Z run (through hr66).-- but I think it's wrong. Just not in the cards for a phase with the teleconnections. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 29, 2018 Report Share Posted December 29, 2018 ukie with somewhat of a phase-- 850 not out yet, but most precip should be snow on the far W side. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 29, 2018 Report Share Posted December 29, 2018 ukie 850 72hr (really need the 66hr to see whats going on) . Interesting for E.IA - N.IL and S.Wi-- Be interesting to see if the Euro bites-- I say NO. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 29, 2018 Report Share Posted December 29, 2018 @Hawkeye you still have those nice ukie QPF maps? Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 29, 2018 Report Share Posted December 29, 2018 @Hawkeye you still have those nice ukie QPF maps? I don't know how much of that on the backside is snow, but probably most of it. It's very restricted with the northward extent of QPF and disagrees with basically all other models. I'm gonna join grizzcoat on this one and toss it. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 29, 2018 Report Share Posted December 29, 2018 Euro https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018122900/wisconsin/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20190101-0300z.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 29, 2018 Report Share Posted December 29, 2018 Euro https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018122900/wisconsin/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20190101-0300z.htmlWould be a significant storm if cold air caught up faster. Tons of cold sector precip, but cold air lags. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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