hlcater Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 The 12z GFS is kinda awful. Halved totals. 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 GFS is probably to progressive this run...Looks way too fast compared to other major modeling. Let's see what the FV-3 and Euro have to show and maybe will take a peek at the CMC and Ukie. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 I'm not digging the trends on the GFS. But still 3 1/2 days out, so I'm not going to get too worried.Did the Euro run last night trend weaker at all? I saw that map, but I don’t recall how it compares to the previous run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Did the Euro run last night trend weaker at all? I saw that map, but I don’t recall how it compares to the previous run. Came in stronger over 12z. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Any mentions of what ratios we’re possibly looking at?I haven't heard specific ratios but they are supposed to increase as the storm progresses with the cold air moving in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 New GFS more strung out with less phasing as well 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 15, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Both Euro/GFS starting to see a major winter storm in the works... FWA to KTOL gonna jack! That's my call for where the primary axis lands for eastern sub. Crazy to see 19.9" there as they are NOT known to do well in most historic storms. Would like to see there top-5 list to confirm. Might be some massive hitters from a century ago I'm not familiar with. And that 15/0z Euro Control is "choice" for those further north. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 This storm is coming on shore now correct? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 This storm is coming on shore now correct?Vort wont be onshore for 36 hours or so 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 This storm is coming on shore now correct?Thursday evening/00z suite friday is probably when we will get sampling. Though I do think he affect of sampling on models is often overplayed, especially nowadays. 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 South trend is a win in the afternoon's GFS tandem. Fits cycling, added seasonal suppression, etc. Keep the trend going. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 South trend is a win in the afternoon's GFS tandem. Fits cycling, added seasonal suppression, etc. Keep the trend going.More of a split system 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 South trend is a win in the afternoon's GFS tandem. Fits cycling, added seasonal suppression, etc. Keep the trend going.How ‘bout no, Scott. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Theres still time to get that low SE of there in future runs and dig/deepen it. Can't deny the trends. Should start seeing more -NAO influence also. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 12z GEFS still look good around here...not complaining... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 15, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 I like the way that dark color is making a B-Line towards SEMI. Agreed. Has to come thru SWMI first tho.. 15/0z Euro. That has to bliz or near for MO into IL 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 It has been confirmed that because of the government shutdown that most of folks that input the data into the super computer have called in sick and that the modeling will not be reliable going forward Europeans are still working so Euro should be fine. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Speaking of government shutdown does it affect the snowplowers that have to plow the highways?? I know it doesn’t affect local municipalities as much but curious if it affects state highways Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Speaking of government shutdown does it affect the snowplowers that have to plow the highways?? I know it doesn’t affect local municipalities as much but curious if it affects state highwaysNot much for now, long term it could be an issue. States have to pay for it, but do receive some federal funding for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 At least the 12z UK qpf improved for Iowa, bringing Cedar Rapids back up to 0.40" Otherwise, the trend is not good. As Gosaints posted, the streams are diverging. I was thinking we need the PV to back off so the main energy could cut more through Iowa instead of diving southeast, but instead, while the models are showing the slowing of the diving PV like I wanted, the main energy is only digging even farther south. Iowa ends up in no man's land in between, so qpf on the gfs/cmc/icon is drying up. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Starting to look more like a clipper for us in IA while the main energy stays to the SE. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 15, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 At least the 12z UK qpf improved for Iowa, bringing Cedar Rapids back up to 0.40" Otherwise, the trend is not good. As Gosaints posted, the streams are diverging. I was thinking we need the PV to back off so the main energy could cut more through Iowa instead of diving southeast, but instead, while the models are showing the slowing of the diving PV like I wanted, the main energy is only digging even farther south. Iowa ends up in no man's land in between, so qpf on the gfs/cmc/icon is drying up. Hopefully just another swing of the models until better sampling happens. Gonna be a coaster ride but the peaks and valleys should slowly lessen. We're not even to SR models yet. Signal's been huge from the range we began. Seems phasing's the toughest thing for the models to pin down. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 12z GEFS still look good around here...not complaining...Just looked at it and surprisingly it looks quite bullish for our area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 12Z Euro at hour 72 with a Low in East Central Colorado. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 BFB695ED-80DC-43D7-BED2-93F038714801.pngStill looking good up here but dried up for many areas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 12Z Euro at hour 72 with a Low in East Central Colorado.Similar to the GFS then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Similar to the GFS then.I believe so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 12Z Euro at hour 96 with the low (999) dropping down to West Central Arkansas 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Need the northern piece of energy to really amp up or just a few inches here based on these runs. Can't complain about our season but these trends do not favour us at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Euro 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Wpc still believes. http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 might sneak out 1-4" here. At least make it white out there before the cold shot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 signfiicant shift south on the Euro. Hard to believe that northern Missouri just keeps getting pounded this winter. Incredible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Pretty much a clipper for IA. Phasing misses us. We're used to it though lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Alright, now please just don’t shift so far south that we don’t get anything. I’ll gake even an inch lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 The trend is not Iowa's friend. The main energy is digging way too far south for us. We may have to be satisfied with a 2-4" event. I hope it doesn't go lower than that. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Well the models are still good, but I dont like how the clipper dumps snow north of us then it re phases just south. eastern Nebraska is just in a weird transition zone. Hoping it can just get its act together a few hours earlier. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Anybody have the QPF total maps from the UMMET? Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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