February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[TT-SEA]

FV3 is wonderful for SW WA and NW OR.

 

 

Definitely a step back for King County compared to its 00Z and 06Z runs.

[TT-SEA]

WRF is strange... it does not even show solid cloud cover in the Seattle area late tomorrow evening when it also show it dumping snow.  

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Is there an upvote/downvote feature on mobile?

 

Also, things still looking interesting for the region over the coming days. Will be such a nice break from the monotony.

[TT-SEA]

And then it shows skies clearing before dawn...

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

It will change at least 20 more times.

Wrong!! 22 at least!

[Timmy Supercell]

Tonight starts my snow. The heaviest looks to be Sunday night into Monday morning.

[kokaneekidz]

Must be the convective nature of the airmass by that time.

 

WRF is strange... it does not even show solid cloud cover in the Seattle area late tomorrow evening when it also show it dumping snow.  

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow by Sunday morning next week the GFS is a huge outlier on the warm side. 

[TT-SEA]

And here is Monday afternoon per the WRF.    No idea how to explain the precip it shows in conjunction with the cloud cover it shows.

 

[Esquimalt]

And then it shows skies clearing before dawn...

 

Weird. Heavy cloud in my area and not much in the way of snow

[luvssnow_spokane]

WRF is strange... it does not even show solid cloud cover in the Seattle area late tomorrow evening when it also show it dumping snow.

 

Historic lofting event do to intense release of thermals caused by swamp gas. Resulting in a nearly cloudless snowstorm!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

BTW. I haven't said a thing to anyone. My wife knows just because she has seen me obsessing over the models, but I haven't said a word. Someone came in my office yesterday and asked me what I thought about snow chances, and I said "what snow chances, I've been so busy with traveling I haven't checked."

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS mean goes below -5C at 10z tomorrow morning and stays there for at least 9 days.

[FroYoBro]

BTW. I haven't said a thing to anyone. My wife knows just because she has seen me obsessing over the models, but I haven't said a word. Someone came in my office yesterday and asked me what I thought about snow chances, and I said "what snow chances, I've been so busy with traveling I haven't checked."

 

Wow, you truly are a man of the people. Thank you for your difficult work. 

[seattleweatherguy]

WRF nails Seattle and the western half of King County from about 8 p.m - 2 a.m. tomorrow night.

The band falls apart after that as the low slips south.

Thanks for the timing as it stands now

[Blizzard777]

Partly sunny morning here. It was still drizzling at 6 a.m.

Drizzle here as well but some blue is starting to break through

44* with a low of 43*

[The Swamp]

Historic lofting event do to intense release of thermals caused by swamp gas. Resulting in a nearly cloudless snowstorm!

This is looking like a rain shower to snow shower event in the swamp. The ground will be wet with rain limiting any accumulation of snow.

 

A heavy band stalls over the swamp and things could change.

[HighlandExperience]

GEM is suddenly snowy for King County. WRF is decent....Thoughts? mmmm

 

 

[dairyd]

WRF is strange... it does not even show solid cloud cover in the Seattle area late tomorrow evening when it also show it dumping snow.  

 

 

I believe it corresponds to upper air dry slotting.  how that transpires is unclear if you look at the goes-17 satt. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensembles are going to come in a little cooler.

 

FV-3 is a little too west late week, but not as bad as the operational.

[Jesse]

Still socked in with fog and mist here this morning, 41.

 

It would be neat if we could score another high in the 40s today. If so it could be a clean sweep below 50 through at least the tenth or so. Maybe mid-month?

[Blizzard777]

Current dew points

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Nothing like good weather models hot cup of coffee and listing to tool at about 120 decibels.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

OH MY GOD

 

[MossMan]

These 2 coyotes know the snow is coming!

 

Or mating season has just begun. I need to get my fence up.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensembles never get above -3.5C

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Not exactly unexpected but the latest WRF is slower at bringing in the lower level cold:

 

 

12z:

 

0z:

 

[TT-SEA]

Nice morning...

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

OH MY GOD

 

Historic.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow on Sunday night per the 12Z ECMWF... too much eastward shift for Seattle now.    More snow out here.

 

[TT-SEA]

Deformation band right over King County on Monday morning...

 

[HighlandExperience]

Total snow on Sunday night per the 12Z ECMWF... too much eastward shift for Seattle now.    More snow out here.

 

 

 

That is an improvement for east king county, 

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through Monday at 10 a.m... now King County is a big winner.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 12z FV3 looks good for Monday. Rain changes over to snow at PDX by Monday 4am.  Then it pretty much snows until Tuesday morning as a deformation band sets up shop. The deformation band then starts to slip south later Tuesday morning.

 

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks like some fun coming up in Haida Gwaii; currently 23F up in masset with significant potential for sea effect snow. However, it doesn't look like they've seen any sticking snow yet:

 

http://images.drivebc.ca/bchighwaycam/pub/cameras/198.jpg

[GHweatherChris]

Total snow through Monday at 10 a.m... now King County is a big winner.

 

Uugghh...

[HighlandExperience]

Deformation band right over King County on Monday morning...

 

 

WOW massive improvement! Just the trend we want to see. No more farther east though!

[seattleweatherguy]

Historic.

Close to the vaunted pv?

[TT-SEA]

Monday afternoon... deformation band is falling apart.

 

Looks like King County might be the best spot now for the deformation band.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Total snow through Monday at 10 a.m... now King County is a big winner.

 

 

Wow. 4-6" up here now.