February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[HighlandExperience]

Snowwiz what you think for King County? You pretty confident in the EURO totals?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1-4 inches Portland north. 4-12 around Port angles. 

[Jesse]

Yeah, 1936 had some decent snow in spots but it was largely dry. Portland pulled off a mini-blizzard with that on February 17 with a high of 24 and 30-40mph winds.

 

Meant to respond to this last night, but I find it interesting that one of Portland's all-time cold Februaries was so dry. I would think at this point in the sun angle year in order to score a top cold month you would need more cloud cover and precip at times to hold average highs down.

[Guest Sounder]

Been awhile since Dewey has popped on and made a comment subtly implying he thinks we’re all idiots. I find it grounding sometimes.

Given his complete lack of meaningful contributions in recent years I just feel like he's compensating for his own insecurities and general discontent with life.

[Jesse]

1-4 inches Portland north. 4-12 around Port angles. 

 

My brother could get the best storm since he moved there.

[Requiem]

1-4 inches Portland north. 4-12 around Port angles.

 

Would this be a setup where Salem and south is left out (with PDX to Seattle getting most of the accumulation)?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Meant to respond to this last night, but I find it interesting that one of Portland's all-time cold Februaries was so dry. I would think at this point in the sun angle year in order to score a top cold month you would need more cloud cover and precip at times to hold average highs down.

 

Yeah, you would think. Probably good outflow. At Salem 1989 beats 1936 by a decent margin. The top 3 at SLE 1989, 1936, 1929 are kind of in a top tier by themselves. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EURO at 240 looks good to me, looks like more energy about to drop over the top. The last few days look like some solid 41/21 type days in the valley probably 35/15 up here. 

 

At this point I think a reasonable expectation for this period would be something along the lines of last February, but the potential is there for it to be much better. We always go into these things thinking we have a pretty good idea how it will turn out, but there are always significant surprises. 

[BLI snowman]

Meant to respond to this last night, but I find it interesting that one of Portland's all-time cold Februaries was so dry. I would think at this point in the sun angle year in order to score a top cold month you would need more cloud cover and precip at times to hold average highs down.

 

Actually February 1936 was still modestly wet (4.73" at Portland). Interestingly it is the only one of Portland's five coldest Februaries to have more than 3" of precip (1883, 1887, 1929, 1989). So dry cold is still very possible at this point.

 

And in the most extreme case on record, we've still a big dry arctic blast even as late as mid March before. In 1867 we pulled off five straight subfreezing highs at Fort Vancouver from March 12-16 with minimal cloudcover. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Actually February 1936 was still modestly wet (4.73" at Portland). Interestingly it is the only one of Portland's five coldest Februaries to have more than 3" of precip (1883, 1887, 1929, 1989). So dry cold is still very possible at this point.

 

And in the most extreme case on record, we've still a big dry arctic blast even as late as mid March before. In 1867 we pulled off five straight subfreezing highs at Fort Vancouver from March 12-16 with minimal cloudcover. 

 

I can't even imagine in our current climate. Doing that in December/January is hard enough these days.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS appears to be slightly farther east with the center of the trough at 240 hours.  

 

[Jesse]

Actually February 1936 was still modestly wet (4.73" at Portland). Interestingly it is the only one of Portland's five coldest Februaries to have more than 3" of precip (1883, 1887, 1929, 1989). So dry cold is still very possible at this point.

 

And in the most extreme case on record, we've still a big dry arctic blast even as late as mid March before. In 1867 we pulled off five straight subfreezing highs at Fort Vancouver from March 12-16 with minimal cloudcover. 

 

Interesting stuff. I've heard you talk about the March 1867 blast before. I find it pretty impossible to even begin to wrap my head around that.

 

Seems like if we have cold enough air in place and some snow cover around a lot of the conventional wisdom (based mostly on modern trends) about increasing sun angles in the late winter and their deleterious effects on basin cold pools, etc, starts to go out the window. But it takes a really special pattern obviously.

[BLI snowman]

I can't even imagine in our current climate. Doing that in December/January is hard enough these days.

 

Yeah, that month was a total freak though. I have that one neck and neck with November 1955 as our most anomalous arctic airmass on record.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Would this be a setup where Salem and south is left out (with PDX to Seattle getting most of the accumulation)?

I don't know much about the patterns of that area. 

[BLI snowman]

Interesting stuff. I've heard you talk about the March 1867 blast before. I find it pretty impossible to even begin to wrap my head around that.

 

Seems like if we have cold enough air in place and some snow cover around a lot of the conventional wisdom (based mostly on modern trends) about increasing sun angles in the late winter and their deleterious effects on basin cold pools, etc, starts to go out the window. But it takes a really special pattern obviously.

 

We saw it in late February 1993 in the basin, as a much more recent example. The Dalles had a 24/14 day on February 26 with 850mb temps around -4c.

[Deweydog]

Been awhile since Dewey has popped on and made a comment subtly implying he thinks we’re all idiots. I find it grounding sometimes.

I’m sticking with the back surgery guy’s idea of a 2019 analog.

[Deweydog]

All I know is there’s a TON of talk about model minutia today but nothing about Phil’s shadow or lack there of.

 

#forestthroughthetrees

[Perturbed Member]

12z RPM FWIW

[TT-SEA]

12z RPM FWIW

Crap model!

 

Massive difference for the Seattle area.

[Jesse]

All I know is there’s a TON of talk about model minutia today but nothing about Phil’s shadow or lack there of.

 

#forestthroughthetrees

 

Sunbreak here! Should be a lock.

[TT-SEA]

18Z NAM is farther west tomorrow.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12Z EPS appears to be slightly farther east with the center of the trough at 240 hours.  

 

 

Well crap!

[Perturbed Member]

Crap model!

 

Massive difference for the Seattle area.

 

Indeed I've generally found the RPM model to be rubbish but for whatever reason Mark always references it. I assume it must have some kind of merit that I don't see. RPM showed no snow the night before Jan 10 2017 for PDX...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

18Z NAM is farther west tomorrow.  

Kinda North West

[Esquimalt]

18Z NAM is farther west tomorrow.

How does the EPS look at hour 300 compared to yesterday?

[TT-SEA]

How does the EPS look at hour 300 compared to yesterday?

 

Also a little farther east compared to 00Z run.  

[Esquimalt]

Also a little farther east compared to 00Z run.

Still a decent cold signal though?

[Perturbed Member]

RGEM looks great for Seattle. Screws PDX but hard to tell since it only goes out 48 hrs. 

[ShawniganLake]

Last nights HRDPS actually looked decent. Environment Canada’s forecast wasn’t awesome

Their forecast is meaningless right now.

[snow_wizard]

Holy sheeeit!  The ECMWF ensemble mean is insanely cold all the way through.  Wow!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Their forecast is meaningless right now.

The best forecast are on this forum.

[TT-SEA]

Still a decent cold signal though?

 

Yes... just modified a bit.   Certainly not warm.

[snow_wizard]

Snowwiz what you think for King County? You pretty confident in the EURO totals?

 

The chances are decent.  I think a heavy dusting at the minimum.

[Esquimalt]

Holy sheeeit! The ECMWF ensemble mean is insanely cold all the way through. Wow!

Maps?

[TT-SEA]

Holy sheeeit!  The ECMWF ensemble mean is insanely cold all the way through.  Wow!

 

Its been that way for the last 10 days at least.   

[TT-SEA]

Maps?

10-15 day mean...

 

[ShawniganLake]

Tuesday morning. Looks good. And why do we talk about January 1969 when we are looking at maybe 1-2" of snow? lol

Even comparing this to 2008 before a single flake falls, seems kind of ridiculous.

[Esquimalt]

Their forecast is meaningless right now.

Nam 18Z showing a low developing off neah bay. Sweet spot

[snow_wizard]

Well crap!

 

Hour 168 is fabulous and after day 10 is potentially epic.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yes... just modified a bit.   Certainly not warm.

 

It'd probably be drier. Control run agrees with the FV-3 on a huge blast later on.