February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[Jesse]

Playing. Provincial championships

 

Wow. That's pretty impressive. Good luck!

[Phil]

4-frame GIF.

 

First 2 frames are both Day 10, same day, 00z vs 12z.

 

Last 2 frames are both Day 15, same day, 00z vs 12z.

 

The entire run is colder and more amplified.

 

[Timmy]

I am much more proud of our Coors Light/pork rinds/football culture.

oh yeah, I forgot liberals hate America.

 

Pork rinds are so good btw, if you haven’t had salt and vinegar, you haven’t lived.

[TT-SEA]

We are in HRRR range now!    Lets watch this model play catch up.    

 

Here is Sunday night at 10 p.m.

 

[ShawniganLake]

wow you just confirmed all my notions of what Canadians do for fun.

Curling, beer, and -30 degree windchills does sound pretty canadian

[Jesse]

oh yeah, I forgot liberals hate America.

 

Not at all. It just seems silly to act like a curling championship is ridiculous when we have equally silly customs. Every country does.

[ShawniganLake]

Wow. That's pretty impressive. Good luck!

Thanks. We are 1 of 3 teams left.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Might have to bump those totals down to a more conservative 6-8”.

Leave the sarcasm for Deweydog.

[Jesse]

Leave the sarcasm for Deweydog.

 

I am just going with what my gut says. we should make a forecast contest to settle this once and for all.

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS more snowy for the Seattle area on Sunday evening than the 12Z run.

 

[dairyd]

Very cool

 

That low is forming very early. which probably means its not going to be dry-slotted imo

[bainbridgekid]

18z looks improved.

 

[Jesse]

18z looks improved.

 

 

 

Pretty neat how much better this thing has trended in the home stretch. The last minute eastward trend is finally working out for us!

[Requiem]

18Z GFS more snowy for the Seattle area on Sunday evening than the 12Z run.

 

Models are all over the place right now, so I do think there’s a greater chance of Seattle getting accumulating snow rather than PDX.

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS early Monday morning...

 

 

[Phil]

Good Lord... it was out through day 10 when I looked and I said the center of the trough was slightly farther east at that time.

 

I have been talking about the intense and persistent cold on the EPS for 10 days now.   Sorry for making one meaningless observation about one frame.  

You’re a smart dude. You’ve been reading/analyzing models for more than a decade now. There are no excuses for slip-ups like this.

 

Just because the wavenumber is lower and/or the smoothed ensemble mean shows more blue across the Plains doesn’t necessarily mean the trough axis has shifted east. But you already knew that.

[Jesse]

Models are all over the place right now, so I do think there’s a greater chance of Seattle getting accumulating snow rather than PDX.

 

I don't follow your logic.

[TT-SEA]

Monday morning at 10 a.m.

 

[TT-SEA]

You’re a smart dude. You’ve been reading/analyzing models for more than a decade now. There are no excuses for slip-ups like this.

 

Just because the wavenumber is lower and/or the smoothed ensemble mean shows more blue across the Plains doesn’t necessarily mean the trough axis has shifted east. But you already knew that.

 

I know nothing.   I make simple and obvious observations which are usually wrong.  

[Jbolin]

18Z GFS more snowy for the Seattle area on Sunday evening than the 12Z run.

 

Looks like a nice area of moderate snow right over the central sound

[wxmet]

Nice GFS 18z run. Good to see things trending in a favorable direction as we get closer to the event. 

[Requiem]

I don't follow your logic.

Why? Seattle’s colder, and the deformation band has been trending north. Not to say PDX won’t get maybe a dusting to an inch, but higher totals look more probable towards S. Seattle and Olympia.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 18z rgem is very snowy for many areas.

Yeah, it shows all snow for the I-5 corridor by Monday 4am. Nice band of snow rotates NNE. Very encouraging run by the RGEM.

 

[TT-SEA]

Monday at 4 p.m... great run for Portland

 

[Jesse]

I know nothing.   I make simple and obvious observations which are usually wrong.  

 

[BLI snowman]

18z looking healthy on Monday afternoon for Portland.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

18z much like 18z rgem. This is starting to look good.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I am just going with what my gut says. we should make a forecast contest to settle this once and for all.

Go for it!

[Requiem]

Why? Seattle’s colder, and the deformation band has been trending north. Not to say PDX won’t get maybe a dusting to an inch, but higher totals look more probable towards S. Seattle and Olympia.

I take it back, I’m being a pessimist. I think a dusting to an inch at least looks likely for many parts of the region, akin to February 18th, 2018.

[Jesse]

Why? Seattle’s colder, and the deformation band has been trending north. Not to say PDX won’t get maybe a dusting to an inch, but higher totals look more probable towards S. Seattle and Olympia.

 

Seems like you basically said the models are all over the place now, so there's a better chance that X happens as opposed to Y, when if anything that should decrease confidence in any one solution.

 

I'm not seeing the trend you are speaking of either. As you said, the models have kind of been all over the place.

[TT-SEA]

 

 

I am actually serious.   75% of what Phil talks about is over my head.   I just try to get down to what it means for our tangible weather.  

 

It like a PHD strudent talking to a first grader.   

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Seems like a bit of a northward shift on the 18z runs, interestingly it doesn't look like this will hinder snow accumulations down in Oregon, but might help in a big way up here.

[Requiem]

Seems like you basically said the models are all over the place now so there's a better chance that X happens as opposed to Y, when if anything that should decrease confidence in any one solution.

 

I'm not seeing the trend you are speaking of either. As you said, the models have kind of been all over the place.

Yeah, just addressed that, I was definitely being more pessimistic than I should have been. My logic did not check out!

[Meatyorologist]

I know nothing.   I make simple and obvious observations which are usually wrong.  

I like the humility 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

What’s all this nonsense about the long range 12z EPS trending warmer/east? The trough trended both colder and larger in expanse. I think Tim just likes to cause panic, lol.

 

This is insane..cold signal grows stronger from D10 to D15.

 

That's just surreal. I have honestly never seen the EPS get that much colder in that time frame.

[TT-SEA]

That's just surreal. I have honestly never seen the EPS get that much colder in that time frame.

Yeah... the signal is getting stronger in the 10-15 day period is insane. That almost never happens.

[Phil]

At some point, as is true with most big -EPO events (which this will inevitably morph into) the trough axis/thermal gradient will eventually broaden and propagate eastward. However, it shows no signs of doing so until the third week of the month..and there is no dynamic supprt for that transition until then.

 

So keep that in mind before the “omg east shift!” chorus begins. It’s a loooong ways off from actually happening..models already rushed it once, and they’ll probably rush it again.

[Jesse]

I am actually serious.   75% of what Phil talks about is over my head.   I just try to get down to what it means for our tangible weather.  

 

It like a PHD strudent talking to a first grader.   

 

#humblebrag

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Perturbed Member]

Why? Seattle’s colder, and the deformation band has been trending north. Not to say PDX won’t get maybe a dusting to an inch, but higher totals look more probable towards S. Seattle and Olympia.

 

There is no trend of moving the deformation band north. The euro had it over PDX and then moved it to Seattle for the 12z run. That's a single run and other models haven't really followed that. Don't think you can call that a trend. The band is in a new place on each run on every model.