February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[VancouverIslandSouth]

And then there's this  :

 

[TT-SEA]

Cmc looks good.

 

 

Yeah... GEM says the GFS is lost and its going with the ECMWF scenario.  

[joaqweri]

yall know when the 12z euro starts rolling?

[Farmboy]

People HAVE been saying there *could* be some pullback. Just have to wait and see what the other models say.

[Jesse]

There's that pullback! Almost makes me feel better.

 

Just one run though.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Cmc looks awesome for Monday.  Gfs past day 4 is wrong.

[seattleweatherguy]

Block is still crazy strong on the 12Z GFS at that time. Its so strong that it grabs that low and sends it westward instead of just carving out another western trough.

 

It's not right if it gives cali snow!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I dropped the bomb on my parents. Funny when i walked into the house about 15 mins ago my mom noticed the snow twinkle in my eyes haha. Pretty much told them  to gas up the generator and fill the cars with fuel. My forecast to them was 6-12 inches by Sunday and 3-6 Monday. Probable not far off.

[TT-SEA]

There's that pullback! Almost makes me feel better.

 

Just one run though.

 

 

The 12Z GFS is about to unload on us by day 8.   Overall pattern stays the same.

 

[Kayla]

What's crazy is that every run (even the bad ones) and model show that the NPAC block just doesn't budge.

 

Completely stagnant pattern and I wouldn't be worried about the mesoscale stuff cause everyone will eventually get plenty of snow.

[Jesse]

The 12Z GFS is about to unload on us by day 8.   Overall pattern stays the same.

 

 

 

GFS seems to be doing what the Euro was a few nights ago. Digging the low too far to the SW and cutting it under the block. The mid-range definitely seems to be the GFS's warm range.

[joaqweri]

00z GFS still going with mainly 6-12" for the central sound, 10-12" in seattle and spots of 13" and 14" just north of everett

[joaqweri]

Screenshot (180).png

00z GFS still going with mainly 6-12" for the central sound, 10-12" in seattle and spots of 13" and 14" just north of everett

meant to say 12z GFS ;P

 

 

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Wow... No school for Riverview SD again today. I thought for sure they'd just have a late start.

 

At this rate, my son might only have school tomorrow and maybe Friday. Monday-Wednesday next week will be highly questionable depending on how much we thaw out and then it's mid-winter break.

 

Lucky kid.

[BhamMe]

North Sound temps - 15° outside my window in Everett.

KCPQ had the temperature in Arlington at 3 degrees this morning. This shows differently. 3 seemed a bit incorrect and I think it's confirmed. 

[Kayla]

I feel like we've seen this before...

 

[Guest hawkstwelve]

12z GFS close-up of WA. It shows snow doesn't start in downtown Seattle until around midnight with rain until then.

 

Obviously if it's at all wrong about precip starting as rain (I think it is), totals will be higher than what is shown here.

[joaqweri]

Wow... No school for Riverview SD again today. I thought for sure they'd just have a late start.

 

At this rate, my son might only have school tomorrow and maybe Friday. Monday-Wednesday next week will be highly questionable depending on how much we thaw out and then it's mid-winter break.

 

Lucky kid.

SPS has 2 hour late start today, but we also have 75min early release on wednesdays. today's gonna be a short day, i have no idea how they plan on fitting 6 classes that are normally an hour long into a 3 1/2 hour day

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

-9 at my property last night after a high of ten. Cold.

[Winterdog]

Beautiful morning.. after a low of 9F, currently 11F

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This system is much like the last except a much larger area of heavy snow and more of it. 6-12 inches would be a fair forecast from Portland the the border.

[joaqweri]

only got down to 22F, bottomed out around 7am this morning.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12z UKMET days 3 to 6.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

[Blizzard777]

Flashback February 2017

Snow pics showed up on FB this morning....that was heavy snow!

[joaqweri]

looking at the 00z GEM now. has snow arriving INCREDIBLY early and starting as snow late thursday night, with temps in the upper 20s for most of the central sound. heaviest of it moves through late friday night into early saturday morning. last snow showers move out late saturday afternoon/early evening. surprisingly only has totals of 6-10" for most of the sound. posting a snowmap shortly.

[awright31]

Yes, I'm brand new here. Been watching this a few days. I'm @ThurstonNewsWX on twitter.

 

But, what is everyone's general consensus regarding precipitation type. What I'm seeing is that most of the models show it as starting as rain which could put a huge damper on this event especially for the South Sound. Is this actually going to happen or is that just the models scouring out the cold air too quickly?

 

And also, am I reading the maps correctly, that the snow is supposed to last for a good 24 HOURS?!?!

[joaqweri]

12z gem snowmap

[joaqweri]

looking at the 00z GEM now. has snow arriving INCREDIBLY early and starting as snow late thursday night, with temps in the upper 20s for most of the central sound. heaviest of it moves through late friday night into early saturday morning. last snow showers move out late saturday afternoon/early evening. surprisingly only has totals of 6-10" for most of the sound. posting a snowmap shortly.

im tired. again, the 12z, not 00z.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The weather nerds sight is so cool. I just looked at every 12z run and they all show a solid 8-12 inches for the entire Puget sound.

[joaqweri]

Yes, I'm brand new here. Been watching this a few days. I'm @ThurstonNewsWX on twitter.

 

But, what is everyone's general consensus regarding precipitation type. What I'm seeing is that most of the models show it as starting as rain which could put a huge damper on this event especially for the South Sound. Is this actually going to happen or is that just the models scouring out the cold air too quickly?

 

And also, am I reading the maps correctly, that the snow is supposed to last for a good 24 HOURS?!?!

could last longer! this is could be a big snowstorm.

[seattleweatherguy]

Yes, I'm brand new here. Been watching this a few days. I'm @ThurstonNewsWX on twitter.

 

But, what is everyone's general consensus regarding precipitation type. What I'm seeing is that most of the models show it as starting as rain which could put a huge damper on this event especially for the South Sound. Is this actually going to happen or is that just the models scouring out the cold air too quickly?

 

And also, am I reading the maps correctly, that the snow is supposed to last for a good 24 HOURS?!?!

Maybe start as rain south of seattle and stay as all snow north of

[awright31]

could last longer! this is could be a big snowstorm.

 

If that's the case, I have a hard time imagining this putting down LESS than 6 inches at minimum

[joaqweri]

The weather nerds sight is so cool. I just looked at every 12z run and they all show a solid 8-12 inches for the entire Puget sound.

yeah, expecting the seattle NWS to issue a winter storm watch later today or tomorrow.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Yes, I'm brand new here. Been watching this a few days. I'm @ThurstonNewsWX on twitter.

 

But, what is everyone's general consensus regarding precipitation type. What I'm seeing is that most of the models show it as starting as rain which could put a huge damper on this event especially for the South Sound. Is this actually going to happen or is that just the models scouring out the cold air too quickly?

 

And also, am I reading the maps correctly, that the snow is supposed to last for a good 24 HOURS?!?!

Hi, very common for models to under estimate cold air in the area and if any rain does fall it would be very short lived and mainly south of Olympia. The best forecast for this possible rain is some of the old timers at the NWS that will use the 40 years of experience watching these situations unfold.

[Kayla]

It's honestly gotten to the point that the only short to mid term precipitation map that matters is the Euro. Head AND shoulders above the rest.

[Jesse]

It's honestly gotten to the point that the only short to mid term precipitation map that matters is the Euro. Head AND shoulders above the rest.

 

It's certainly showing a lot of white flaky stuff falling.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

12z WRF looking snowy again for many.

 

Snow doesn't start until after 4PM.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It's certainly showing a lot of white flaky stuff falling.

Hard to believe all this man. EXCITING. 

[Kayla]

It's certainly showing a lot of white flaky stuff falling.

 

Touché!

[GHweatherChris]

Trending worse and worse for here.