February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[BLI snowman]

That’s fascinating stuff. I wonder if your big storms tend to last longer as well? From the discussion I’ve read on here there seem to have been several potent, multi-day storms out there in the past, which doesn’t happen here.

 

We don’t have an upstream moisture source like you, so our big snows rely on explosive cyclogenesis throwing moisture back into the rear quadrant..usually hard to keep that going for more than 12-18hrs.

 

Yeah, we generally will have multiple days with steady light to moderate snow in our big storms, although there are exceptions, like Victoria recording 25.2" in a single calendar day on 12/29/1996 or Salem getting 25" on 1/31/1937.

 

The Northeast does better with big, quick Gulf Stream fueled dumps that feature more dynamic winds, snowfall rates, and cyclogenesis as well as convective elements, so I certainly get their appeal.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Pretty crazy to realize that we are only a little over 48 hours away from the next event.

 

My wife and I are going back to work tomorrow after working remote the past couple days, my son is just going back to school, and I still have 6.5 inches on the ground. That was after "only" 7 inches.

 

And then you realize this will become the norm over the next week...

[Phil]

D10-15 EPS mean is nuts. It just doesn’t stop!

 

[Chewbacca Defense]

It is painful to see that big hole over Whatcom County when it looks like the rest of the region is looking to get buried in the most epic fashion....

 

Still time for things to come around and the wealth to spread up here (hopefully without taking away from someone who looks to be getting the goods in the current model runs)

 

Epic cold and wind is kind of a waste without snow!

[Phil]

The control run is f**king glacial inception.

 

[Front Ranger]

Hopefully the sun doesn't come to life any time soon. Would love to see another winter or two with this kind of blocking.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The EPS actually expands the North American cold pool and strengthens the blocking regime by D15.

 

Cold anomalies blanket all of the West, and almost everywhere else except for the Gulf Coast, Alaska, and Greenland. Wow.

D10-15 EPS mean is nuts. It just doesn’t stop!

 

The control run is f**king glacial inception.

 

Just surreal at the moment. I hope it never ends.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Snow starts around 10AM Friday in King County on the 06z NAM.

[Phil]

Hopefully the sun doesn't come to life any time soon. Would love to see another winter or two with this kind of blocking.

Should at least have next winter, I’d think (though a SSW is very unlikely next winter with a full fledged +QBO and immature easterly shear). Then there’s the lag effect..solar wind/geomag lags TSI, and the climate system has its own lag/inertia, so 2020/21 has high potential.

[Front Ranger]

NAM faster and juicier with Friday's storm.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

06z NAM is much snowier vs. 00z from Seattle to the Canadian border by 7PM Friday.

[bainbridgekid]

This is going to be fun to document as we go through February! I took the first picture literally 10min before the first flakes started to fall on Sunday morning.

The second was yesterday early morning. A few more inches fell after I took this pic.

I did the same thing! The first is just as the snow was starting at 1:30 on Sunday and the second was as it was ending at 11 AM Monday morning.

 

 

 

[Cloud]

Snow starts around 10AM Friday in King County on the 06z NAM.

Thanks for this.

 

I’m more interested in the timing and precipitation type at the start at this point... want to make a decision whether or not to come to work on Friday. The last thing I want to is to be stuck on 405 at rush hour when it’s really coming down Friday evening.

[Phil]

Bingo.

 

When the right pattern locks in, we can easily remain in the moisture plume for several days at a time. 99% of the time that just results in a ton of rain, but with arctic air to the North and the lows staying South . . . magic happens.

Imagine that climate period between the Eemian interglacial and the following glacial maximum, where you had the ice sheet growing and the Pacific Jet was still strong/far enough north to deliver much of your precipitation in the form of snowfall. That would have been so epic to experience.

[bainbridgekid]

Imagine that climate period between the Eemian interglacial and the following glacial maximum, where you had the ice sheet growing and the Pacific Jet was still strong/far enough north to deliver much of your precipitation in the form of snowfall. That would have been so epic to experience.

We probably had the climate of Mt. Baker.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Thanks for this.

 

I’m more interested in the timing and precipitation type at the start at this point... want to make a decision whether or not to come to work on Friday. The last thing I want to is to be stuck on 405 at rush hour when it’s really coming down Friday evening.

 

Well, in my opinion, the precipitation will almost certainly start as snow. Per the Euro by 10AM Friday 850s are -6/-7c, there's offshore flow, surface temps are hovering right around freezing and dp's are in the 20s. Smells like snow to me.

 

Timing is somewhere between 10AM-4PM, again looking at the Euro. That said, things don't really get going until Friday evening.

[Requiem]

Well, in my opinion, the precipitation will almost certainly start as snow. Per the Euro by 10AM Friday 850s are -6/-7c, there's offshore flow, surface temps are hovering right around freezing and dp's are in the 20s. Smells like snow to me.

 

Timing is somewhere between 10AM-4PM, again looking at the Euro. That said, things don't really get going until Friday evening.[/quote

 

I know you’re more of a Seattle expert, but do you think models could be underplaying the rain/snow transition for NW Oregon?]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Go to bed kid.

[Requiem]

Go to bed kid.

Just asking /:

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just asking /:

You have school. I'm going to tell if you don't get to bed.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Well, in my opinion, the precipitation will almost certainly start as snow. Per the Euro by 10AM Friday 850s are -6/-7c, there's offshore flow, surface temps are hovering right around freezing and dp's are in the 20s. Smells like snow to me.

 

Timing is somewhere between 10AM-4PM, again looking at the Euro. That said, things don't really get going until Friday evening.[/quote

 

I know you’re more of a Seattle expert, but do you think models could be underplaying the rain/snow transition for NW Oregon?]

 

I really focus on Seattle because I know little about the Gorge/Basin and how that generally plays into things, especially in situations like this. I can tell you the Euro shows 850s around -4/-5c, southerly flow, and surface temps hovering around 34/35 until Saturday morning which is when it shows the changeover. Easterlies kick in around 10AM.

 

Beyond that, I'll leave the rest to the pro's on this forum and the local forecasters like Mark Nelson. Plus, I'm hardly an expert on Seattle as it is.

[Requiem]

Alright, alright. Good night to both of you, I’m excited for the days ahead.

[Phil]

Go to bed kid.

[bainbridgekid]

A little less moisture, but 6z still buries the entire Puget Sound region. Also brings more snowfall South of Seattle.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

06z GFS a little less snow overall but still nothing to sneeze at.

[bainbridgekid]

06z GFS a little less snow overall but still nothing to sneeze at.

The fact that a widespread 6-12" from Olympia to Mt. Vernon could be considered "nothing to sneeze at" speaks volumes about the potential this pattern has.

[MikeInEverett]

Major snow for Portland on Tuesday on the 06z GFS

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Solid snow for the WV on the overnight. Brings 4” here and more all over thru Tuesday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The details will vary after the Friday night/Saturday system, but it looks solid on the 06z. The operational is actually warmer than the mean starting Saturday. Even though it is not warm. The mean drops all the way to nearly -9C!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX down to 25 with some clearing. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 7 at Arlington now!

[MikeInEverett]

Coldest temp I've seen my car show in the eight years it's been in my family!

 

[Blizzard777]

We are having a all company meeting in Renton Sunday through Weds. I am coordinating it and am honestly getting a little concerned I will even be able to get there. We have 20 people flying in on Sunday and at this point as thrilled as I am about the snow, I am also a little stressed out .

Snowstorms and regular work day responsibilities don’t mix. Costco inventories going on this weekend as well ( Friday through Sunday). This would be a disaster if the crews didn’t show up! Glad I’m retired but I do empathize with your situation.

I’d probably get a hotel room in Renton so at least your near by.

Brother down in Portland also has a big event planned Saturday that he is in charge of. He is stressed as well. I sent him DJs write up along with other maps being posted here so he can gauge what needs to be done.

The irony !

[joaqweri]

Not much change with the 06z GFS. still going with a solid foot in seattle.

[joaqweri]

If the models keep on this trend, the seattle NWS may issue a winter storm watch as early as today or tomorrow. Last night's forecast discussion was real exciting.

[Blizzard777]

Total snow over next 10 days...

 

My wife just got back from Portland and now thanks to what’s upon us will need to head back and man the house in Tigard to help our daughter through this event. May not see her for a few weeks now...lol!

[Blizzard777]

The WRF and the ECMWF both show King County being the winner Friday night. Totally awesome! What incredible timing also, getting a big snow on a Friday night. And how about that third big trough being shown around day 10?

My new landscaping plants could use all the snow insulation they can get!

Hope they survive this event!

[Blizzard777]

Not sure if it was posted already, but here is the 72 hour map from the WRF ending 4PM Monday.

 

I may need to get a snow shovel now

[Blizzard777]

18* and just finished reading the last page.

If all these snow storms pan out snow will be on the ground for the next two to three weeks. A glimpse of what it’s like to live in the mountains or Tim’s place.

Definitely need to purchase that snow shovel asap!

[Tyler Mode]

19.8 for a low before clouds developed (unexpectedly)  Now up to 25.  I wonder if we could keep the clouds in place all day for limited heating, I doubt it though.