February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[Prairiedog]

Just watched Rod Hill this am.  Not here to defend or criticize him.  He has been fairly accurate.  He called last winter and he's been accurate so far for this winter based on his forecasts from the Winter Forecast at OMSI we have every fall.  Most of his daily forecasts have been reasonable. HOWEVER his 7-day is diametrically opposed to the discussion/modeling here.  He's saying there may be a mix on Friday, MIGHT get a little snow Sunday (then he qualified it by saying, "if we even get any snow") and then rain Monday.  Absolutely opposite of Mark's forecast.  Opposite what I'm seeing on the models.  Does not seem even in the ballpark with the modeling.  Yes, it could happen.  Most of the models don't show that though.  What the h$%l is he looking at to even give that kind of forecast.  What am I missing?  I try really hard to bite my enthusiasm because I know the models can break our hearts even inside 2-3 days.  The signals have been strong and consistent for cold and snow this month.  The models have been solid in forecasting regional snow this weekend.  Where did this forecast come from?

[Sometimesdylan]

Man all this cold and snow forecasted would be considered a cold pattern for SE Alaska, some 900 miles away! So cool to experience this with ya guys.

 

Off to Stevens pass to stretch my legs in the sun today. I requested to only work 2 shifts a week for the rest of the month to give me more days off to experience this awesome wx. Can always pick up more if things don't pan out

[TT-SEA]

Big pattern change and warm up in 15 days per the EPS.   

 

 

I suspect area schools might actually be in session until July this year.    No joke.    This is going to become seriously disruptive.    There is literally no end sight.   

[TT-SEA]

The only saving grace for schools up here is that most school districts have break during the week of 2/18-2/22.    So they will buy some time and can hope that maybe by 2/25 things have improved.   Not sure even that will happen.  

[Jesse]

Part of me is still sitting here waiting for the inevitable pullback, but it never comes. This is hard to process.

[Jesse]

20 here with clear skies and some snow around still. May dip into the teens before sunrise.

 

Looks like PDX has fallen to at least 24, VUO 22. Negative single digits in the basin with -4 in Yakima and -1 in Pasco. Very nice.

[TT-SEA]

Part of me is still sitting here waiting for the inevitable pullback, but it never comes. This is hard to process.

 

That is one aspect... the other thing is that we almost always can see the end even when we are in a really cold and snowy period.   I can't wrap my head around the idea of this going for at least 2 more weeks and maybe more.    Until the EPS blinks... there is absolutely no end in sight.     I have never seen anything like the persistent strong signal on the EPS... did not even think that was possible for this long.  

[Prairiedog]

Stayed cloudy out here between Oregon City and Estacada.  32f at 4am but has dropped to 30 in the last hr.  Obviously some clearing west of here with PDX's temps.  Most of the time I'm colder than them.

[TT-SEA]

I am really glad we got deep snow at the start of this... its a great insulator.     I am guessing there will be another stunted spring leaf out this year.   Too much warmth in January caused the trees to start to emerge from dormancy... and now extended record cold.   Really bad scenario.  This cold would not be a problem at all in December or January in deep dormancy or if we had a cold Janauary this year... but this progression might cause some real issues.

[TT-SEA]

For those who will be analyzing the 12Z runs... remember that if a run doesn't show a cold pattern in the mid and long range then it will be wrong and its not worth discussing.

[TT-SEA]

No idea what to make of the 12Z NAM.    Its coming in even faster on Friday when the GFS and ECMWF insist the action is mainly on Friday night.

[TT-SEA]

The 12Z NAM has the main front way down in Oregon at 10 p.m. on Friday when the other models show that Seattle will be getting into the heavy snow at that time. A massive discrepancy.

 

That heavy band of precip in central and southern OR is the same band that is shown to be over Seattle at that time on the other runs.

 

[MossMan]

16.2 currently.

[Jesse]

For those who will be analyzing the 12Z runs... remember that if a run doesn't show a cold pattern in the mid and long range then it will be wrong and its not worth discussing.

I kinda get what you’re trying to say here but this kind of certainty just doesn’t jive with me and really shouldn’t exist in mid-long range weather talk. A warmer model could pick up on something the EPS doesn’t. The EPS has been wrong before. Not to say it will this time but yeah.

[The Swamp]

The 12Z NAM has the main front way down in Oregon at 10 p.m. on Friday when the other models show that Seattle will be getting into the heavy snow at that time. A massive discrepancy.

 

That heavy band of precip in central and southern OR is the same band that is shown to be over Seattle at that time on the other runs.

 

Bad run throw it out

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well kind of bummed about the clouds hanging on Aurora south, but that's life. SLE did get some brief clearing to hit 29 earlier. And if it clears out today then most places south of Aurora will probably see their lows for the day this evening. 

 

On the other hand really really great to see PDX do well  with lows, Vancouver an impressive 22 at 6am, they could fall further! Up in Washington 3 at Arlington! Are you kidding me!!! That is awesome! Even typically balmy Sea Tac sitting at 21. In the Columbia basin some spots went below 0!

 

Up here I saw stars a few times, but currently cloudy and we never could totally shake the clouds. Amazingly it still fell to 22, which is my coldest low of the winter so far. I'll take it!

[TT-SEA]

I kinda get what you’re trying to say here but this kind of certainty just doesn’t jive with me and really shouldn’t exist in mid-long range weather talk. A warmer model could pick up on something the EPS doesn’t. The EPS has been wrong before. Not to say it will this time but yeah.

I would agree about the uncertainty if the EPS was even mildly variable like normal. But it is literally never changing. This is different... and surreal.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 12Z NAM has the main front way down in Oregon at 10 p.m. on Friday when the other models show that Seattle will be getting into the heavy snow at that time. A massive discrepancy.

 

That heavy band of precip in central and southern OR is the same band that is shown to be over Seattle at that time on the other runs.

 

 

The NAM is just WAY more aggressive with the cold air and the arctic trough than the other models. Drops the surface low pretty quickly down the coast. Arctic air is BLASTING through the Fraser River canyon and sliding down into the Columbia basin. Look at these gradients at hour 84. By this point the 522 thickness line is approaching the California border and the 516 line is south of Olympia. 

 

[Esquimalt]

The NAM is just WAY more aggressive with the cold air and the arctic trough than the other models. Drops the surface low pretty quickly down the coast. Arctic air is BLASTING through the Fraser River canyon and sliding down into the Columbia basin. Look at these gradients at hour 84. By this point the 522 thickness line is approaching the California border and the 516 line is south of Olympia. 

 

It shows a strong straight effect signal here as the main low stalls to our southwest and cold air is blasted across the Georgia straight.

[ewnichols25]

Arlington at 5!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It shows a strong straight effect signal here as the main low stalls to our southwest and cold air is blasted across the Georgia straight.

 

How much snow have you had so far with this cold snap?

[Esquimalt]

How much snow have you had so far with this cold snap?

Trace-1 inch. This is a big deal for us up here...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 12 at Pendleton.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Trace-1 inch. This is a big deal for us up here...

 

Wow, even Salem got 2" yesterday morning...I think you'll do better this round, but the models have been fairly insistent this is your big shot and the other snow chances will be further south. On the other hand if you can get some nice accumulation Friday you'll keep it as you look to stay in the ice box up there.

[TT-SEA]

Pre-dawn here this morning... looks exactly like yesterday. Even the deciduous trees are still holding the snow.

 

[Jesse]

I would agree about the uncertainty if the EPS was even mildly variable like normal. But it is literally never changing. This is different... and surreal.

Definitely is surreal.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pre-dawn here this morning... looks exactly like yesterday. Even the deciduous trees are still holding the snow.

 

 

Jealous of your clear skies.

 

 

[Guest hawkstwelve]

NWS Seattle officially calling for, at this point, widepsread 3-6 inches.

[snow_wizard]

The 6z GFS ensemble 850s bottom out at -9.6  for SEA with the next cold wave and -7.2 for the third one.

 

As for the new NAM run.  I don't know why people torture themselves with that model.  If the GFS and ECMWF show something similar then I will worry about it.

[snow_wizard]

Currently 16 here with crystal clear skies.  Could drop to 15 before the sun comes up.

[TT-SEA]

The 6z GFS ensemble 850s bottom out at -9.6  for SEA with the next cold wave and -7.2 for the third one.

 

As for the new NAM run.  I don't know why people torture themselves with that model.  If the GFS and ECMWF show something similar then I will worry about it.

 

 

Just saw the 12Z ICON basically agrees with the NAM on timing for Friday.

 

That day is really concerning if the timing moves up.   Will have to worry about the entire family getting home safely if the heavy snow starts in the late morning as opposed to the evening.   

[Jesse]

Dropped to 19 here, now it’s fogged in and 21. Not used to dense fog and low 20s around here! Makes the snowy trees look nice.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 6z GFS ensemble 850s bottom out at -9.6  for SEA with the next cold wave and -7.2 for the third one.

 

As for the new NAM run.  I don't know why people torture themselves with that model.  If the GFS and ECMWF show something similar then I will worry about it.

 

Why would you be worried about it? Still shows snow for your area.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ICON looks a little colder/moister down here than previous runs. Still kind of on its own compared to other models.

[Kayla]

My average temperature these last two days is -6F and it's been snowing for most of the time with the coldest air still to come later today. I can't stop saying it... This is insane. 

 

Hey, that was my 3,000th post! 

[TT-SEA]

My average temperature these last two days is -6F and it's been snowing for most of the time with the coldest air still to come later today. I can't stop saying it... This is insane.

The cold air has to move out soon. The Earth stil spinning right??

[Jesse]

The cold air has to move out soon. The Earth stil spinning right??

How I felt last summer with the endless 90 degree days. Maybe this is karma?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some big time snowfall numbers in the Pendleton forecast area with this storm we just had.

 

[TT-SEA]

How I felt last summer with the endless 90 degree days. Maybe this is karma?

Be careful... we might have the opposite extreme again.

[Kayla]

How I felt last summer with the endless 90 degree days. Maybe this is karma?

 

This is all YOUR fault! 

 

Thank you.