February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[snow_wizard]

4-5 feet in 1 storm? Geesh, how long did that take to fall?

 

I think it was in one day.  When I saw the records on that one I was suspicious, but given what happened everywhere else it could have been the bullseye of an amazing event.  After that Seattle had an epic winter storm with severe cold and 45 inches of snow over a 5 day period.  Max depth reached 29 inches downtown with that.

[Perturbed Member]

EPS does not finish running for another hour... but I will let you know what it shows now.

 

Absolute ice box for the next 15 days and just getting started on day 15.  

 

Don't even need to check it.     It literally never changes.

 

The consistency of the euro and EPS on this is starting to really mind f*ck me. This never happens, these dreamy patterns always fall apart after a run or two. Every winter everyone here talks about the great historic winters of the past as if they were something that will probably never be witnessed again and now we're looking at what is appearing more and more like a realistic chance to experience something potentially historic. The way this pattern keeps wanting to loop over and over is just amazing. 

[snow_wizard]

Trying to better prioritize my time. My new years resolution, so to speak. It won't last....

 

Mother Nature is testing you!

[ShawniganLake]

FV3 through Wednesday morning. Our Canadians on the island will be happy with this one.

Only a couple feet. I want more.

[Jesse]

The consistency of the euro and EPS on this is starting to really mind f*ck me. This never happens, these dreamy patterns always fall apart after a run or two. Every winter everyone here talks about the great historic winters of the past as if they were something that will probably never be witnessed again and now we're looking at what is appearing more and more like a realistic chance to experience something potentially historic. The way this pattern keeps wanting to loop over and over is just amazing. 

 

Pretty close to my thoughts too.

[snow_wizard]

There is about 8" of snow on the ground there, which definitely helped out a lot.

 

8" of snow there is super impressive.  That could easily be in excess of a foot by Saturday.  I hope we can clear out this weekend with widespread deep snow on the ground.

[Deweydog]

New here. What should I know?

Hate Tim.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty close to my thoughts too.

 

Me too.  I was seriously wondering if it was capable of delivering here anymore.  The answer has always been yes though.  We just needed the atmosphere to get into an old time state.  It appears the solar aspect could be a big part of it.

[MossMan]

This is going to be fun to document as we go through February! I took the first picture literally 10min before the first flakes started to fall on Sunday morning.

The second was yesterday early morning. A few more inches fell after I took this pic.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

FWIW, Jaya sounds a little skeptical about this pattern holding for the foreseeable future.

 

I think most of us would be too if it wasn't for the unwavering EPS. 

 

 

I remember in 2008 the models looked like the pattern would never break down (like this period's runs). But it did rather abruptly. I'm also troubled that the models did not see this coming a few weeks ago. Long range forecasters were saying El Nino winter. So anything goes! https://t.co/XNoLmjgack

— Jay Albrecht (@AlbrechtJay) February 6, 2019

[Phil]

[Deweydog]

Trying to better prioritize my time. My new years resolution, so to speak. It won't last....

Sounds like mindfulness.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Just a little cold next week... No biggie.

 

[snow_wizard]

New here. What should I know?

 

You will learn a lot if you can block out the BS.

[BLI snowman]

When was the last time PDX had 1"+ snow in 4 consecutive winters? Because they have now accomplished that with the 1.4" last night.

 

1992-93 through 1999-00 all had 1"+ in Portland. 2000-01 had an inch officially in downtown as well, actually. Every winter of the Clinton White House.

 

And 2008-12 was the last time they did it.

[snow_wizard]

 

FWIW, Jaya sounds a little skeptical about this pattern holding for the foreseeable future.

 

I think most of us would be too if it wasn't for the unwavering EPS. 

 

 

February 6, 2019

<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

 

I understand being skeptical.  On the other hand the models are better now and the ECMWF ensemble has been incredible for so long now.

[wx_statman]

Mother Nature is testing you!

 

It was easy in January...now, not so much.

[Phil]

FWIW, Jaya sounds a little skeptical about this pattern holding for the foreseeable future.

 

I think most of us would be too if it wasn't for the unwavering EPS.

 

 

I remember in 2008 the models looked like the pattern would never break down (like this period's runs). But it did rather abruptly. I'm also troubled that the models did not see this coming a few weeks ago. Long range forecasters were saying El Nino winter. So anything goes! https://t.co/XNoLmjgack— Jay Albrecht (@AlbrechtJay) February 6, 2019

Obviously it won’t hold forever. But I’m looking at the timing of the Siberian High/EAMT cycle, MJO bifurcating from the ERW train across the IPWP, and the westward propagating regime of cyclonic breakers downstream, and see no reason why this pattern would even begin to transition until the third week of the month (and the transition week could still be cold). By the 4th week it will probably be finished but that’s a long ways off.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

To no ones surprise, 00z EPS continues the pattern through at least D11.

 

 

[Perturbed Member]

Not sure if these WRF Maps were posted. 

 

 

 

 

Pretty solid.

[BLI snowman]

Along with a 22" depth, which for some reason never entered the record books. 

 

Snow depth records aren't officially available for Portland until January 1893, ironically.

[snow_wizard]

Assuming 10-1 ratios that would be 5-6 inches of liquid falling in one day. Which would be insane, especially during the winter months. Our tropical systems even have a hard time pulling that off.

 

How often do precip totals like that happen in the lowlands?

 

We can get 3 or 4 inches in a couple of days time on occasion.  If you had Arctic air nearby to interact with that kind of a firehose it could squeeze out a couple extra inches.

[Cloud]

You will learn a lot if you can block out the BS.

This is the truth. I joined a little more than a year and pretty much lurking and learning things I’ve not known before until I feel comfortable enough to contribute.

 

Still a lot of the same BS bickering though.

[wx_statman]

Sounds like mindfulness.

 

I keep seeing that word everywhere. The latest trendy thing.

[snow_wizard]

Not sure if these WRF Maps were posted. 

 

 

 

 

Pretty solid.

 

I'm very impressed with how similar the WRF maps are to the ECMWF for Western WA on this.

[ShawniganLake]

EPS stays blocky and cold through the end of the run. Hard to believe

[BLI snowman]

4-5 feet in 1 storm? Geesh, how long did that take to fall?

 

A few days I believe.

 

The thing about the PNW is that our top storms really compare quite nicely to the Northeast, outside of the LES belts. Not as deep nor as windy, but 30-40" storm totals are very doable out here historically even in the lowest elevations.

[Requiem]

I'm very impressed with how similar the WRF maps are to the ECMWF for Western WA on this.

 

And NW Oregon too. All in the 4-7 inch ballpark.

[wx_statman]

Snow depth records aren't officially available for Portland until January 1893, ironically.

 

Oh, that's funny. Seems like the 1890's were a big decade for expansion of weather record keeping in this country. Should have started a month earlier.

[Phil]

To think, without the SSW and the resulting momentum loss, we would have still had the raging jet and none of this would have been possible.

 

And the SSW would not have happened without solar minimum preconditioning the thermal/photochemical boundaries under a favorable QBO/MQI for internal amplification.

 

It all had to work out perfectly.

[Perturbed Member]

I'm very impressed with how similar the WRF maps are to the ECMWF for Western WA on this.

 

Yeah the OR WRF map is mostly similar to the 00z ECMWF too. Gives me some confidence that the models are starting to get a decent handle on the first event. Hopefully a good regionwide event.

[Requiem]

Yeah the OR WRF map is mostly similar to the 00z ECMWF too. Gives me some confidence that the models are starting to get a decent handle on the first event. Hopefully a good regionwide event.

 

That second one is giving me January 1980 vibes.

[Phil]

A few days I believe.

 

The thing about the PNW is that our top storms really compare quite nicely to the Northeast, outside of the LES belts. Not as deep nor as windy, but 30-40" storm totals are very doable out here historically even in the lowest elevations.

That’s fascinating stuff. I wonder if your big storms tend to last longer as well? From the discussion I’ve read on here there seem to have been several potent, multi-day storms out there in the past, which doesn’t happen here.

 

We don’t have an upstream moisture source like you, so our big snows rely on explosive cyclogenesis throwing moisture back into the rear quadrant..usually hard to keep that going for more than 12-18hrs.

[Front Ranger]

Phil what the hell is going on???? (I am mentally grabbing you by the shoulders and shaking you right now)

Phil would have recouped all the lost love had he predicted this one.

 

It's the three Arctic weeks of January 2018, only in Feb 2019.

[bainbridgekid]

That’s fascinating stuff. I wonder if your big storms tend to last longer as well? From the discussion I’ve read on here there seem to have been several potent, multi-day storms out there in the past, which doesn’t happen here.

 

We don’t have an upstream moisture source like you, so our big snows rely on explosive cyclogenesis throwing moisture back into the rear quadrant..usually hard to keep that going for more than 12-18hrs.

Bingo.

 

When the right pattern locks in, we can easily remain in the moisture plume for several days at a time. 99% of the time that just results in a ton of rain, but with arctic air to the North and the lows staying South . . . magic happens.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I see Arlington is down to 9 as of midnight. Incredible. 

 

Yakima and Ellensburg down to 7, they could go sub-zero.

 

In NW Oregon finally getting a little clearing. Everyone Salem-north is 28-32.

 

Down to 23 here. 

[BLI snowman]

Oh, that's funny. Seems like the 1890's were a big decade for expansion of weather record keeping in this country. Should have started a month earlier.

 

Yeah, and the actual official depth record for downtown was set in that winter of course with 19" on 2/5-2/6/1893. Crazy that we had not one but two different events of that magnitude in the same winter.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

To no ones surprise, 00z EPS continues the pattern through at least D11.

 

 

EPS stays blocky and cold through the end of the run. Hard to believe

Yeah, the pattern looks stable through at least the next 2 weeks.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

22 at Forks. That is impressive.

[Phil]

The EPS actually expands the North American cold pool and strengthens the blocking regime by D15.

 

Cold anomalies blanket all of the West, and almost everywhere else except for the Gulf Coast, Alaska, and Greenland. Wow.