February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[Jesse]

Be careful... we might have the opposite extreme again.

Good point, I will be careful.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How I felt last summer with the endless 90 degree days. Maybe this is karma?

 

This.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Matt Zaffino posted a graphic showing Hoodoo Ski Area at Santiam Pass is expected to score over 50" by Tuesday.

[Kayla]

The cold air has to move out soon. The Earth stil spinning right??

 

At the rate we're going our downsloping winds are not going to be very warm if we ever get them again!

[TT-SEA]

Good point, I will be careful.

Extreme blocking cuts both ways.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

IMO the NAM looked good for PDX snow. ICON, 500' snow levels. But it was still an improved ICON run.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the 12Z GFS is slightly slower with everything tomorrow evening compared to its 00Z run.

[Skagit Weather]

Slight wind most of the morning up here only allowed the temperature to drop to 15F.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is still slower on Friday... and colder than its 00Z run.   

 

Still to the west late Friday morning... 

 

 

 

And then just getting started around here late in the afternoon.   Everyone might be able to make it home safely before the craziness starts.

 

[TT-SEA]

Here is Friday evening... still shows some rain in Seattle which I believe is wrong.  

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Only down to 31 overnight. Up to 32 now so a decent chance that we have yet another day that cracks 40. Sucks having had so few highs in the 30s. Might be the fewest since I moved to Oregon in 1989.

[TT-SEA]

Early Saturday morning... almost exactly the same as its 00Z run.   Still too warm around Seattle...  it will be all snow there per the ECMWF.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Some big time snowfall numbers in the Pendleton forecast area with this storm we just had.

 

Nice snowcover out in the Columbia River Basin.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

As mentioned the ICON isn't on board with as much snow after the first system, but it doesn't warm us up either and has a deep trough incoming at hour 180.

 

[TT-SEA]

Saturday morning... Seattle is getting lots of snow.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SCORE

 

[TT-SEA]

Saturday afternoon... good agreement with its 00Z run overall.   Slight notch to the east.    Nice to see consistency at least.

 

[TT-SEA]

Saturday evening... just so similar to the last system's track.    But with more cold air already in place for Oregon. 

 

[Jesse]

Extreme blocking cuts both ways.

Thanks Matt.

 

Maybe the ridging will stay offshore though the warm season and we will score a cooler summer. It indeed cuts both ways.

[wxmet]

Looked at the GFS soundings at KSEA, Seattle should stay all snow although it may be grainy to start.

[TT-SEA]

Thanks Matt.

 

Maybe the ridging will stay offshore though the warm season and we will score a cooler summer. It indeed cuts both ways.

 

 

Time will tell!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

It was 37F here. We’re you still getting some outflow?

 

Seems like there was still light outflow. Being on a hill helped, it was a bit warmer in other parts of town. Only dropped to 26F last night with the wind going all night.

[TT-SEA]

Still going for Oregon early on Sunday morning...

 

[Blizzard777]

16*. Brrrrrr

Time to start reading pages again

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Great run for everyone. 

[joaqweri]

SCORE

 

win win for all of us!

[wxmet]

Looks like 11 inches at SEA according to the tidbits GFS.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Good start to the day.

[Kayla]

Through the next event. PDX does better than previous GFS runs.

 

http://i65.tinypic.com/1zx750l.png

[Jesse]

Last summer? More like the last six summers.

Pretty much.

[Jesse]

Through the next event. PDX does better than previous GFS runs.

 

http://i65.tinypic.com/1zx750l.png

Nice snow hole over my house! Ugh!!

[TT-SEA]

Wow... 12Z GFS backed way off on the Monday event from its 00Z run.

 

Monday afternoon and evening look WAY different on this run.   The ECMWF showed a foot of snow in Portland on Monday night and the 00Z was snowy as well.

 

[TT-SEA]

Tuesday morning per the 12Z GFS:

 

 

 

Here was the 00Z run... 

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I'm liking the look of the 12z GFS for up here, probably the 8th in a row to show an 8"+ snowfall here. I'm hoping for an ECMWF bust; Victoria always finds a way to grasp defeat in the face of Victoria, but the ECMWF totals for the east of the island looked flat out wrong given the pattern and strait effect/upslope snow possibilities.

[TT-SEA]

What a change at just 6 days out... Tuesday morning.

 

00Z run:

 

 

12Z run...

 

[TT-SEA]

Tuesday afternoon... WTF?

 

 

 

I would say ignore it if it was after day 7.     But it might carry more weight in the 4-6 day period.

[Farmboy]

Typical GFS waffling? Looks like Monday/Tuesday hinges on King euro.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Cmc looks good.

[High Desert Mat?]

King Euro!!!!

[TT-SEA]

Block is still crazy strong on the 12Z GFS at that time.   Its so strong that it grabs that low and sends it westward instead of just carving out another western trough.