2/4 - 2/8: Multiple Potential Rain/Ice/Snow Events

[Minny_Weather]

Not drier for everyone.

When I post that implies here.

[East Dubzz]

When I post that implies here.

Sure. Just making sure everyone else knows that so there’s no confusion.

[jcwxguy]

Euro

[Clinton]

Good morning, full on ice storm underway down here.  I have thunder sleet and frz rain, and a solid 1/4 in of ice accumulation.  Very poorly forcasted by the NWS and local news.  

[Tom]

Good morning, full on ice storm underway down here.  I have thunder sleet and frz rain, and a solid 1/4 in of ice accumulation.  Very poorly forcasted by the NWS and local news.  

Stay safe there Clinton.  Hope you don't loose power and all is well.  Thankfully, it wasn't to bad over here and all we got was a slight coating of ice but since temps have only been hovering around 32F so it doesn't look to bad.  In the W/NW burbs its a much different story with a thick coating of ice.

[Clinton]

Stay safe there Clinton.  Hope you don't loose power and all is well.  Thankfully, it wasn't to bad over here and all we got was a slight coating of ice but since temps have only been hovering around 32F so it doesn't look to bad.  In the W/NW burbs its a much different story with a thick coating of ice.

Power still on but more ice is coming, really worried about tomorrow morning with the winds we are suppose to have.

[westMJim]

There is a lot of ice here in the west Michigan area. I had 0.64" of freezing rain it came down so hard that with the temperature here at 31 it more or less just puddled on the driveway and road (I think) anyway the drive way has a lot of slushy ice on it. The trees and power lines are covered.  Looks like all schools are closed but not sure if that is for the ice or the power outages as it looks like about 45.000 or more are out of power this morning. The power is still on here but has flicked a few times. At this time there is just a mist falling and the temperature here is 31° the winds are calm and that should help. 

[East Dubzz]

Going to be very interesting to watch this storm develop. NAM, while weaker, wants to keep me in freezing rain the entire time. The GFS is much more of a mix, but it has trended ever so slightly cooler the last few runs. This will be one of those storms where just a few tenths of a degree can make all the difference.

[East Dubzz]

Solid sheet on ice on the sidewalk and truck windows this morning. While the heavier stuff stopped early last night, there was freezing drizzle until the early morning.

[Minny_Weather]

Getting some moderate flakes at a light clip right now. There goes the freezing rain potential. Like yesterday, none of this is showing up on radar. Weird. 12.7*F.

[Bryan1117]

Getting some moderate flakes at a light clip right now. There goes the freezing rain potential. Like yesterday, none of this is showing up on radar. Weird. 12.7*F.

Same here, it’s been snowing lightly here most of the morning with a light dusting on the ground. Nothing on radar except for a few echos developing way out to our west.

 

Hoping we can scrape out at least a couple of inches of snow out of this system to cover up the brown grass, before the cold air really takes hold tomorrow.

[Minny_Weather]

That's a nice screwhole over the NW part of the county on NAM.

[gosaints]

Not inspired by the looks of the NAM.  Srefs however are more exciting

[CentralNebWeather]

Getting some moderate flakes at a light clip right now. There goes the freezing rain potential. Like yesterday, none of this is showing up on radar. Weird. 12.7*F.

Just looked outside, snowing here also, nothing on radar.  Temp at 10 degrees with a wind chill -2.  

[East Dubzz]

NAM continues to want to keep my area below freezing the whole time, with the worst of the ice coming tomorrow morning. Let’s see if any of the other models budge on that or continue to want to give me at least a little rain.

[gosaints]

NAM continues to want to keep my area below freezing the whole time, with the worst of the ice coming tomorrow morning. Let’s see if any of the other models budge on that or continue to want to give me at least a little rain.

If you are looking for freezing drizzle potential for tonight I would suggest using the weather.cod.edu model page as the radar resolution is high and tends to pick up on freezing drizzle events

[East Dubzz]

If you are looking for freezing drizzle potential for tonight I would suggest using the weather.cod.edu model page as the radar resolution is high and tends to pick up on freezing drizzle events

Wow, thanks for that heads up! The DVN has hinted at freezing drizzle tonight, and that website seems to support that. Wasn’t sure since the models on TT don’t show much. This website is super useful for a lot of things. Not sure how I didn’t know about this before.

 

Holy smokes, this site allows you to easily compare the different models too. Clutch!

[CentralNebWeather]

Hoping this storm can over produce.  Our streets are almost covered from the on going snow that was not predicted to start until this evening, and is not showing up on local radar.

[Minny_Weather]

Wow, thanks for that heads up! The DVN has hinted at freezing drizzle tonight, and that website seems to support that. Wasn’t sure since the models on TT don’t show much. This website is super useful for a lot of things. Not sure how I didn’t know about this before.

 

Holy smokes, this site allows you to easily compare the different models too. Clutch!

I use that site for all the American models. Only issue is its snow maps tend to be overboard. I usually just take 85% of what the site is showing and go with that.

[Minny_Weather]

Getting some fat flakes now at a moderate clip. If this keeps up my drive downtown and back here in a bit is gonna be treacherous. It's literally not showing up on radar as CentNeb said.

[East Dubzz]

I use that site for all the American models. Only issue is its snow maps tend to be overboard. I usually just take 85% of what the site is showing and go with that.

I’m assuming you’re referring to when you look at the snowfall total with Kuchera, right?

[Stacsh]

.88 of ice just east of GRR.

[St Paul Storm]

Not inspired by the looks of the NAM. Srefs however are more exciting

You made me look at the SREF. 9z with a mean of 8” at MSP with a handful of big dogs over 10”. None under 4”. It looks like the models really want to deepen the low as it skirts off to the east. E MN and W WI might get jacked. You’re in a good spot I think.

[Andie]

Currently at 69*. Really humid. At 93%.

Temperatures will plunge tomorrow night to 29* then begin to rise.

40% chance of rain

 

Rain Sunday through Tuesday. Finally - rain. Highs in 50's and 60's.

 

Very typical winter weather for us.

[East Dubzz]

Guess Lacrosse wasn’t in the mood to put a ton of work into their AFD this morning. Lol, that’s got to be one of the shortest ones I’ve ever read, at least considering how complicated the weather pattern is right now.

[CentralNebWeather]

Getting some fat flakes now at a moderate clip. If this keeps up my drive downtown and back here in a bit is gonna be treacherous. It's literally not showing up on radar as CentNeb said.

Correct, it is really coming down here, everything covered and I can't find anything on radar.  Very fluffy flakes and it is easily blowing around.  Loving it.

[gabel23]

Correct, it is really coming down here, everything covered and I can't find anything on radar.  Very fluffy flakes and it is easily blowing around.  Loving it.

Same here! We have our last night of PTC's and I"m wondering how much weather will play a factor in attendance. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Same here! We have our last night of PTC's and I"m wondering how much weather will play a factor in attendance. 

The ICON wants to put a stripe of snow through Central Nebraska from my area to maybe just west of you tonight into tomorrow morning.  Someone may score a surprise 4 or more inches.

[Minny_Weather]

I’m assuming you’re referring to when you look at the snowfall total with Kuchera, right?

Kuchera and 10:1 are both usually higher than the rest of the sites by an inch or two with the bigger systems. That's as of last season though so it might have been fixed since.

[CentralNebWeather]

Local observations from websites like, wunderground, weather.com, accuweather, weatherbug, all say cloudy conditions as I see the snow continuing as I look out my window.  

[CentralNebWeather]

North Platte Twitter page just said snow isn't showing up due to radar overshooting.  I guess I have never heard of this before.  They say visibility is down to a mile in many places so the lack of snow on radar may be fooling people as they are driving.

[gosaints]

You made me look at the SREF. 9z with a mean of 8” at MSP with a handful of big dogs over 10”. None under 4”. It looks like the models really want to deepen the low as it skirts off to the east. E MN and W WI might get jacked. You’re in a good spot I think.

two things...

 

The lead wave is a complete wild card.  And generally defo bands are as well

[East Dubzz]

Hmm... 12z GFS seems to have gotten ever so slightly colder again, now keeping me below freezing for a majority of the event. Has 0.33” of ice, followed by an inch or snow of snow on the backside.

 

I believe both the 12z NAM & GFS keep me below freezing now. NAM is a little less on the FZR accumulation though, as I believe it brings in some sleet.

[Minny_Weather]

Pure dendrite dandelion fluff. Roads are fine right now but it was starting to pile up on the roads as I got into downtown. I don't know how much longer this will last cuz it's not showing up on radar.

[Money]

Def south and colder trend on gfs last 4 runs

[gosaints]

The GFS suite along with the 15z RAP seem to be the most aggressive with qpf

[Money]

RAP/RGEM both huge ice storm here

 

Gfs is 5-7 inches of snow

 

Tough forecast

[CentralNebWeather]

Still snowing here but intensity is definitely less than the last hour.

[Tom]

12z Ukie is a lot colder for E IA and C WI with potentially more snow...can't see the snow maps

[Tom]

12z GEFS...similar shift in the heaviest snow band (east)...IA peeps look a bit better...