February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z NAM

 

[Requiem]

18z NAM

 

Better!

[Guest CulverJosh]

Just eyeballing that thing and knowing the dynamics at play I would side with the jucier models

Oh ya. Dynamics are there. Nw of these lows always overperform. Think NorEasters.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Multiple avalanches have periodically closed Hwy 20 between Salem and Central Oregon this afternoon.

[TT-SEA]

I see huge potential for this to go north. She is still way out there. Lots of possibilities.

 

 

Portland is in a perfect spot right now to get in on banding on the north side of the precip shield.   

 

I have a feeling this is going to surprise some people in a good way.  

[MossMan]

1-10-17

This was the only picture I took on 1-10-17...so it must have stayed south. Very south.

[wxmet]

Watch the moisture plume coming off the Pacific into Oregon. The further north this gets the better.

 

[Blizzard777]

9:30 am I drove from SE PDX to Tigard

1/4 inch SE Pdx

Sellwood district very minor dusting left

Sellwood bridge area by river no snow

Tryon Park area 1/4 inch again

From 217 and west out to Tigard sadly everything was already melted.

Grabbed Grandson and drove up to Cooper Mountain Nature center and enjoyed a nice little hike with some snow left to enjoy

Looking forward to our storm later tonight or early morning !!!

[Guest CulverJosh]

Watch the moisture plume coming off the Pacific into Oregon. The further north this gets the better.

 

It definitely is helping that the gulf of alaska cold pool is quite a bit offshore. Would be more worried if the cloud bank was moving due south closer to the coast. Just a visual interpretation. I could be wrong.

[Blizzard777]

Watch the moisture plume coming off the Pacific into Oregon. The further north this gets the better.

 

 

Moisture plume be trending North

[epiceast]

This is what I've been expecting. We had the trend north, then the trend south and now we are seeing a consolidation back to an in between solution. I still think central valley gets slammed, but north is looking better for a 3-5+ solution in my opinion

Salem special(for all snow), maybe more snow somewhere further south but with rain mixed in.

[Deweydog]

This was the only picture I took on 1-10-17...so it must have stayed south. Very south.

“I’m sad. I want thundersnow at MY house. And give me steak.”

[SilverFallsAndrew]

NWS has just issued a Winter Storm Warning for South and Central Willamette Valley.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Really happy to see our friends down south getting in on some fun. Makes this winter that much better and fun to talk about in the future!!

[epiceast]

Can we get some Kuchera maps here? I'm seeing that -700mb temps cool of quickly to -15C 50 miles north of the low, so we could have 15:1 or even 20:1 ratios in places that stay below freezing at the surface(up against the coast range?). NWS seems to think all snow will be marginal above 32 in central valley, but I am not sure if they are right...

[ShawniganLake]

Ended up with rain/sleet early in the morning here. Then it switched over to light snow around 9-10am but nothing stuck, the band just slowly disintegrated. The low level airmass is pretty pathetic, the NE winds barely made a different. Probably wouldn't have mattered much anyway since this would have only amounted to a little under an inch of snow were it a bit colder.

We ended up with a lot of precip. Probably 1/2” but it was too warm. Looked like decent accumulation was restricted to above 700-1000ft around here. Maybe 3-4” around that elevation

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Central Willamette Valley-
Including the cities of Salem, McMinnville, Woodburn, Stayton,
and Dallas
155 PM PST Sun Feb 24 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM
PST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Rain will increase later this
evening, then change over to snow between midnight and 3 am.
Generally, total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches expected.
But, could see up to 6 inches on higher hills, such as the
Turner Hills and Eola Hills.

* WHERE...Central Willamette Valley.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 2 PM PST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult at times,
and snow will impact the Monday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

[TT-SEA]

“I’m sad. I want thundersnow at MY house. And give me steak.”

Somehow... Randy will still manage to get half a foot from this storm even when there is nothing else north of Centralia.

 

A c-zone will fire up right over him.

[Deweydog]

We need Rob for some good ol’ fashion water vapor wishcasting.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

WWA for PDX. Up to 2" possible. I think they are a little conservative with these warnings/advisories. Only 2-4" for the south valley warning...hmmmm...

 

Greater Portland Metro Area-Greater Vancouver Area-
Including the cities of Hillsboro, Portland, Wilsonville,
Oregon City, Gresham, Troutdale, Vancouver, Battle Ground,
Ridgefield, Washougal, Yacolt, and Amboy
155 PM PST Sun Feb 24 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Light rain or snow will develop late
tonight, turning to all snow by 5 am. Total snow accumulations
of up to two inches expected. Snow will decrease around midday
Monday.

* WHERE...In Washington, Greater Vancouver Area. In Oregon,
Greater Portland Metro Area.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 2 PM PST Monday.

[Perturbed Member]

We need Rob for some good ol’ fashion water vapor wishcasting.

 

wxmet is subbing in. He can will the WV further north hopefully. 

[epiceast]

Just looked at WRF progression again, seems like there is not much time to really cool down all levels so yeah it will be a wet snow event for people below 1000' in WV, the precip shield doesn't leave for very long tonight.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z with a little South Valley Special on Thursday night.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My brother on the south coast at Coquille is down to 40 with 2.36" of rain so far on the day.

[Kayla]

FWIW the latest (21z) HRRR looks pretty darn good for the Portland area tomorrow morning.

 

[epiceast]

Unfortunately this going for south means not much snowfall at 15:1 to ratio, seems like 8:1 will be the rule so really wet 3" for most. I bet Portland and SW Washignton(especially Kelso and north) would have turned this storm into a couple feet of snow in some places with colder air in place to support the cold 700mb temps

[Kayla]

With that said...the low looks a bit further south and west than currently modeled.

[seattleweatherguy]

Still hoping #northward trend can give me something but its a hail Mary at this point even for redmond

[Perturbed Member]

FWIW the latest (21z) HRRR looks pretty darn good for the Portland area tomorrow morning.

 

 

Looks pretty much like the NAM at that time. 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Totally dry in Tangent and 41. What a difference 35 miles makes.

[Kayla]

Looks pretty much like the NAM at that time. 

 

Man that 12km NAM way overdoes the precip shield just about everywhere.

 

I'd stick to the 3km with this thing within 24 hours now.

[Deweydog]

Sunbreak!

 

Bad sign.

[Perturbed Member]

Man that 12km NAM way overdoes the precip shield just about everywhere.

 

I'd stick to the 3km with this thing within 24 hours now.

Yeah I actually meant to post the 3km.The 3km is a very close match to the HRRR. I don't really trust the HRRR much but I like the 3km within 36 hrs quite a bit. 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Can really see the north movment with leading edge on sat loop now.

[Perturbed Member]

Can really see the north movment with leading edge on sat loop now.

 

NORTH! It needs to go to Forks asap.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Unfortunately this going for south means not much snowfall at 15:1 to ratio, seems like 8:1 will be the rule so really wet 3" for most. I bet Portland and SW Washignton(especially Kelso and north) would have turned this storm into a couple feet of snow in some places with colder air in place to support the cold 700mb temps

 

2/6/14 and 12/6/13 are probably two of the few examples the valley saw those kinds of ratios. The EURO shows 0.9" of precip falling at EUG between 4a-10am, hence the massive totals it is spitting out down there. 

[Guest Sounder]

9:30 am I drove from SE PDX to Tigard

1/4 inch SE Pdx

Sellwood district very minor dusting left

Sellwood bridge area by river no snow

Tryon Park area 1/4 inch again

From 217 and west out to Tigard sadly everything was already melted.

Grabbed Grandson and drove up to Cooper Mountain Nature center and enjoyed a nice little hike with some snow left to enjoy

Looking forward to our storm later tonight or early morning !!!

My mom lives right near Tryon Park and she said they had almost 1" at 7am that melted almost entirely by 10:30. Not bad compared to the rest of the area it sounds like

[Guest CulverJosh]

Its going north.

[Deweydog]

If I were a weenie in Brookings I could make the case the low is going south of east.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Every single 18z model has come in around Port Orford/Cape Blanco. Interested to see what the EURO says.