February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[SilverFallsAndrew]

High temps on Saturday... another totally sunny day.

 

I am pretty sure the ECMWF thinks there will still be snow cover down south.   

 

 

It has to be overestimating the effects of the snow cover. Even with a chilly airmass and snow cover the high would be at least in the low 40s at EUG IMO. Even after a low in the teens.

[El_Nina]

High temps on Saturday... another totally sunny day.

 

I am pretty sure the ECMWF thinks there will still be snow cover down south.   

 

I think it's overestimating that quite a bit.

[Requiem]

Lol... people assuming bad model initialization just to fit their bias

I’m trusting the surface analysis a bit more, it’s a concern when it’s so far off.

 

But sorry Whatcom’s being left high and dry!

[Perturbed Member]

They were really accurate during the 1/5 windstorm earlier this year.

 

Current obs have it at 1008mb which is probably a bit more accurate. Makes it about 1-3 mb deeper than modeled for 18z today. Probably doesn't mean much but it is hopefully a bit more potent than modeled. 

[TT-SEA]

Its going to be fun tracking the snow down there tomorrow on here with everyone. I have a really good feeling now for the Portland area.

[TT-SEA]

I am sure it will be wrong again... but I like the progression on the ECMWF in the 5-9 day period.

[FroYoBro]

I see the winter storm watch for Portland says 1 to 4 inches right now. Seems pretty reasonable. 

[Requiem]

Its going to be fun tracking the snow down there tomorrow on here with everyone. I have a really good feeling now for the Portland area.

Thanks for all the maps! I’m feeling a lot better about this one.

[umadbro]

I have a feeling most people will ignore the forecast and go to work anyway making for a miserable commute.  Fortunately I wake up at 4am for work.  So I will be able to avoid it all.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I hope some of this snow is drier than what we've been getting or else there are going to be a lot of power outages. 

[Perturbed Member]

Its going to be fun tracking the snow down there tomorrow on here with everyone. I have a really good feeling now for the Portland area.

 

Usually the euro being on our side would give some confidence but it hasn't been doing so great with this setup for some reason. Feels like it has been a step behind. Hopefully it comes through this time. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows total of precipitation of .10 in my area over the next 10 days. 

 

And virtually no precip from Seattle northward to Bellingham. 

[TT-SEA]

15min after it stops it will be melted.

 

 

This is actually true.

 

I saw the ground on the Puyallup WSDOT cam looking all white about an hour ago and now its all gone.  

[Weiner Warrior]

I have a strong feeling the low is going to shift north last minute and land over oceanside with a more NE trajectory. Southern WA gets nailed. Also the low is slower increasing precip rates but warmer temps causing 8:1 ratios.

[Prairiedog]

I have a feeling most people will ignore the forecast and go to work anyway making for a miserable commute.  Fortunately I wake up at 4am for work.  So I will be able to avoid it all.

You're closer to the Sun in Sherwood than I am near Estacada so roads may be solidly frozen over here.  LOL  Wet snow is far worse driving on than packed powder.  People will go out no matter what.  I think it was last year people with no chains, no studs, bald tires, etc trying to get up W. Burnside.  You know it's gonna happen. 

[Timmy]

I hope some of this snow is drier than what we've been getting or else there are going to be a lot of power outages.

It’s posts like this^...

[TT-SEA]

The 12Z ECMWF shows 5.6 inches of precip in Roseburg over the next 10 days... and basically nothing up here.    

 

Nature is making up for last year... wet in Oregon and dry up here.  

[TacomaWaWx]

Snow chances in Puget sound region coming to a close it seems, have seen accumulating snow in March and April so there’s always a chance but looking less likely, I’m still happy with this winter though and the fact that Portland will cash in at the end too hopefully makes it definitely the best winter since 2008

[wx_statman]

I wonder how super typhoon Wutip is affecting things right now. Officially became the strongest February typhoon on record yesterday. The N. Pacific wave train doesn't normally have a 155 mph typhoon infusing energy in February, so this is a pretty unique situation.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 12Z ECMWF shows 5.6 inches of precip in Roseburg over the next 10 days... and basically nothing up here.    

 

Nature is making up for last year... wet in Oregon and dry up here.  

 

Good to finally have a wet month. I should end up with 12-13" of precip. About 33% above normal. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It’s posts like this^...

 

I meant for the whole region. 4" of wet snow at PDX would cause power outages and bring down a lot of weak limbs.

[Requiem]

I meant for the whole region. 4" of wet snow at PDX would cause power outages and bring down a lot of weak limbs.

Maybe the east wind will dry things out?

[Front Ranger]

Because it generally is. That’s an easy call based on past history. And I didn’t post about it 28 times a day and try to cram it down everyone’s throat who disagreed, and STILL end up being wrong. Take notes.

The fact that it was very weak +ENSO mattered.

 

And the fact that it hadn't snowed yet through January did not matter. Justin was dead wrong.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still snowing at Sweet Home.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The fact that it was very weak +ENSO mattered.

 

And the fact that it hadn't snowed yet through January did not matter. Justin was dead wrong.

 

A lot of us were wrong. Gladly.

 

Looks like Central Oregon switching over to snow now.

[MossMan]

Still mostly solid snowcover at my house, however I stopped by the lake house and it’s pretty much gone there. Drove up to my old place and they are still holding onto a little bit of snow, slightly less than our new place. Yay I picked right!

At home it’s 39.8 with a DP of 32.2.

[TT-SEA]

Sun shining through the clouds here with a few random snowflakes falling.  

[FroYoBro]

Mark updated his blog. Calling for 1-3 inches of wet/slushy snow through on Monday for Portland. Snowstorm in the Willamette valley. 

[Front Ranger]

Mark updated his blog. Calling for 1-3 inches of wet/slushy snow through on Monday for Portland. Snowstorm in the Willamette valley.

Sounds like he may have looked at the latest models.

[Front Ranger]

Sun shining through the clouds here with a few random snowflakes falling.

Looks like more precip is moving into your area.

[Requiem]

Mark updated his blog. Calling for 1-3 inches of wet/slushy snow through on Monday for Portland. Snowstorm in the Willamette valley.

Better than nothing, I suppose. Hopefully that low tracks a bit more north!

[BLI snowman]

The fact that it was very weak +ENSO mattered.

 

And the fact that it hadn't snowed yet through January did not matter. Justin was dead wrong.

Oh no! How will I ever cope!?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

18z nam a bit north over 12z.

[umadbro]

It's really  really rude of you, Andrew to talk about and post your snow totals on a weather forum.  It's super offensive.  Please stick to your sarcastic troll posts.  Those serve a better purpose here.

[ShawniganLake]

I wonder how super typhoon Wutip is affecting things right now. Officially became the strongest February typhoon on record yesterday. The N. Pacific wave train doesn't normally have a 155 mph typhoon infusing energy in February, so this is a pretty unique situation.

Could throw a wrench into things for a time.

 

I wouldn’t mind seeing one more trough dig in with a little more of a north to south direction.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mark riding with King EURO.

[Requiem]

Mark riding with King EURO.

I’m surprised the HRRRRRRR is showing such low snow totals. It seemed quite decent when I looked on tidbits.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's really  really rude of you, Andrew to talk about and post your snow totals on a weather forum.  It's super offensive.  Please stick to your sarcastic troll posts.  Those serve a better purpose here.

 

Noted!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Nam 18z looking much better for portland.

[TacomaWaWx]

Good thing the weather ended up being alright I’m driving to orcas island today so I-5 should be good, hopefully there’s a lot of snow on top of mt.constitution

Glad that Portland still looks like they’re gonna get their snow after all