February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I wonder if everyone on here realizes how far it is from Eugene to PDX. The distance Between PDX and Eugene is about the same as the distance between PDX and Olympia... About 115 miles.

[Perturbed Member]

Something to watch, both 18z ICON and NAM show deformation over us after the low passes. 

 

 

[Deweydog]

I wonder if everyone on here realizes how far it is from Eugene to PDX. The distance Between PDX and Eugene is about the same as the distance between PDX and Olympia...5

Lucky for us the distance between Eugene and PDX has shortened considerably over the last five summers or so. Might finally pay off!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

He's "praying" it doesn't trend north?! If I was in Portland, I'd be praying for it TO trend north.. Is he a snow hater or something?

His audience is the general public, not us weather nerds. Some people like snow but the majority of Joe Publics out here don't want to deal with snow since it will affect their day to day lives.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Would like to see gorge temps a little colder. Mid-30s at noon. 

[Guest CulverJosh]

Would like to see gorge temps a little colder. Mid-30s at noon.

Temps will not be an issue. East wind is supposed to start raging by late evening.

[Blizzard777]

We have friends that sold their place here and now live on property they have (cabin) on the Deschutes R. in La Pine.  They're looking to get pummeled tonight into tomorrow.  Similar pics I got from them as well.

 

Beautiful area!! He’s on Beaver Rd. near S Century Dr.

He’s heading over there Wednesday. Pummeled by 31 inches perhaps !!

We shall see

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FWIW a landfall 50 miles north of the current consensus at Cape Blanco would be at Coos Bay.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Temps will not be an issue. East wind is supposed to start raging by late evening.

 

My brother lives near Coos Bay, he says they have a north wind and the temp has dropped into the lower 40s there. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Rgem a bit stronger and north

[GHweatherChris]

FWIW a landfall 50 miles north of the current consensus at Cape Blanco would be at Coos Bay.

Thanks Andrew

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So far the ICON, RGEM, and NAM all make landfall with the low in the exact same spot. Just south of Cape Blanco at Port Orford. All models that were further south have now trended north to this spot. Also the models seem to be picking up the enhancement in the precip shield to the N and NW of the low as it passes.

[Bryant]

I wonder if everyone on here realizes how far it is from Eugene to PDX. The distance Between PDX and Eugene is about the same as the distance between PDX and Olympia... About 115 miles.

I wonder if you realize what the term "everyone" means

[TT-SEA]

Partly sunny and 40 here.   Random snowflakes have stopped falling.  

[Perturbed Member]

Lets hope this continues through 00z. Low is a bit stronger last few runs and further NW as you would expect. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My brother just reported Cottage Grove in Southern Lane County down to Elkton in the Umpqua Basin has turned to snow.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[FroYoBro]

Snowing sticking to grass but not pavement yet. Unexpected.

 

You are going to have a fun 24 hours. Enjoy!

[Andrew.]

This is what I've been expecting. We had the trend north, then the trend south and now we are seeing a consolidation back to an in between solution. I still think central valley gets slammed, but north is looking better for a 3-5+ solution in my opinion

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Deweydog]

I wonder if you realize what the term "everyone" means

Your wife must have the patience of a saint.

[Perturbed Member]

[FroYoBro]

18z GFS pretty much looks the same as the 12z, maybe slightly worse here. 

 

 

I think things are pretty much locked in now. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[umadbro]

gfs still says it's lame north of Salem.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Perturbed Member]

18z GFS pretty much looks the same as the 12z, maybe slightly worse here. 

 

 

I think things are pretty much locked in now. 

 

Dramatic changes in the track of the low are probably pretty unlikely at this point IMO. But some baby steps to strengthening the low a bit, spreading the precip a bit further north, deformation on the backside of the low or another little surprise or two could still give us a respectable event I feel. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Driving up to Tangent to drop off the kids.

 

Will be back down to Springfield by 3. I will give y’all a surface profile as I get up to the Central Valley.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The GFS is only slightly further south than the other 18z runs. However, it takes the low more ENE not NE, that is why the precip shield is so weak further north.

[Bodhijr]

Lucky for us the distance between Eugene and PDX has shortened considerably over the last five summers or so. Might finally pay off!

Is this distance based on the flat earth measurement or the metric system?

[Guest CulverJosh]

Models arent gospel, especially in the pnw. Even Mark puts in disclaimers. That says a lot.

[Perturbed Member]

The GFS is only slightly further south than the other 18z runs. However, it takes the low more ENE not NE, that is why the precip shield is so weak further north.

 

Better than when it was taking it E or SE on the overnight run at least. PDX got no precip at all for that track I think.

[Requiem]

FV3 is ever so north.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Still not accumulating but I love being in the car on snow.

[Omegaraptor]

How long was the sub-50 streak in 1896 in Portland?

 

Models don't show any warming (as in, above 50) until 300+ hours out, and we all know how much of a joke models past 240h are.

[Deweydog]

1-10-17

[TigerWoodsLibido]

37 in Coburg. Just a click north and it’s rain with a few splats. Springfield right at 500 ft in most neighborhoods.

[TT-SEA]

Low 40s and sun feels warm now.

00Z ECMWF showed my area getting 4 inches of snow by this time... ended up with nothing.    And the sound of running water off the roof is music to my ears. If we had heavy rain after the big snowstorm then we could have had some serious issues.

[Guest CulverJosh]

I see huge potential for this to go north. She is still way out there. Lots of possibilities.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I see huge potential for this to go north. She is still way out there. Lots of possibilities.

 

Just eyeballing that thing and knowing the dynamics at play I would side with the jucier models