March 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[ShawniganLake]

A frosty 32 here this morning

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good news is Nurk suffered no ligament, muscle, or nerve damage to his leg. Just the broken bones. Horrific injury nonetheless. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Good news is Nurk suffered no ligament, muscle, or nerve damage to his leg. Just the broken bones. Horrific injury nonetheless.

I got into a serious accident on a motorbike in July last year. Broke both the bones in my leg and broke my ankle in 4 different places. Was a horrific experience I will never forget. Still recovering although I’m much better now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I got into a serious accident on a motorbike in July last year. Broke both the bones in my leg and broke my ankle in 4 different places. Was a horrific experience I will never forget. Still recovering although I’m much better now.

 

Good lord. I'm sorry you had to go through something like that.

[Anti Marine Layer]

A little. Jacarandas look more subtropical but I can see the slight resemblance in that they are both trees blooming with pastel colored flowers.

 

 

jacaranda.jpg

 

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Nice pictures

[Omegaraptor]

So what is the chance that we have a soaker of an early April?

[TT-SEA]

So what is the chance that we have a soaker of an early April?

12Z GFS thinks so.

[TacomaWaWx]

Fairly breezy N. Winds in Tacoma today’s system coming in is going to be hitting some dry air when it comes through this afternoon.

[TT-SEA]

Fairly breezy N. Winds in Tacoma today’s system coming in is going to be hitting some dry air when it comes through this afternoon.

 

 

Does not really move in until this evening and the models show it splitting apart as it moves through... likely due to dry air in place ahead of the system.

 

Here is 8 p.m. per the 12Z WRF:

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Does not really move in until this evening and the models show it splitting apart as it moves through... likely due to dry air in place ahead of the system.

 

Here is 8 p.m. per the 12Z WRF:

 

Yeah seems pretty similar to Friday system. Beautiful start to the day with a cloudy sprinkly finish.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some light rain this morning. I took a walk at the park near my office in a light jacket and hardly got wet in 45 minutes. 

 

Yesterday was beautiful. Got a little yard work done after work. 

[Jesse]

Plz verify

 

[Omegaraptor]

12Z GFS thinks so.

It’s not just the 12z. Of all the recent GFS runs, a good amount of them predict high rainfall for Washington County.

 

06z is especially impressive because it shows the coast range rain spilling over into the urban part of Washington County.

 

Edit: Just looked at 12z. Even more impressive. 6”+ for nearly the entire county including my area.

[Timmy Supercell]

Had a half inch of snow earlier in K-Falls. This all came in as rain at first, I stayed up late enough to see it change from moderate rain to the biggest wet flakes I've seen the whole winter.

 

So far today, 0.22" precip was recorded at the airport. Several hours straight some kind of precip was falling.

 

There will be a few more light snows to come I bet, my average latest 1 inch is within the first couple weeks of April.

I've had two back to back months with over 3x normal snowfall; I'd say that's a very solid late winter run.

[TT-SEA]

It’s not just the 12z. Of all the recent GFS runs, a good amount of them predict high rainfall for Washington County.

 

06z is especially impressive because it shows the coast range rain spilling over into the urban part of Washington County.

 

Edit: Just looked at 12z. Even more impressive. 6”+ for nearly the entire county including my area.

 

I am not sure how it will play out and I am sure it will rain... but the GFS surface maps lose resolution in the later periods of each run and often way overstate precipitation.

 

Look at the precip map for the next week... that is more reliable and meaningful.     Beyond that... you could just guess and have a better chance of being right.     

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF thinks the best way to block the Pacific moisture is with another deep trough over us. Big change from previous runs.

 

[Omegaraptor]

I am not sure how it will play out and I am sure it will rain... but the GFS surface maps lose resolution in the later periods of each run and often way overstate precipitation.

 

Look at the precip map for the next week... that is more reliable and meaningful.     Beyond that... you could just guess and have a better chance of being right.     

 

The general rule is to ignore past 240 unless you start seeing trends. However, a lot of the recent models have been showing high rainfall in the Northwest (and warmth in the Great Plains). Pretty hard not to ignore. I won't rely too much on specific rainfall numbers - just think "It's going to be a wet early April, but we'll see how wet as it unfolds".

 

At one point the GFS was spitting out 44/29 00z/12z crap for March 31 and April 1 (which would be record cold for this time of year). Now it's likely April 1 will be a showery early springlike day.

[TT-SEA]

Snowfall maps are back!   This is next Wednesday morning... one week from today.     Obligatory April snow event here.  

 

 

 

Although the next day is pretty nice again...

 

 

[TT-SEA]

And then day 9 is even warmer... 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

The general rule is to ignore past 240 unless you start seeing trends. However, a lot of the recent models have been showing high rainfall in the Northwest (and warmth in the Great Plains). Pretty hard not to ignore. I won't rely too much on specific rainfall numbers - just think "It's going to be a wet early April, but we'll see how wet as it unfolds".

 

At one point the GFS was spitting out 44/29 00z/12z crap for March 31 and April 1 (which would be record cold for this time of year). Now it's likely April 1 will be a showery early springlike day.

 

 

12Z ECMWF does not a showery, springlike day on Monday down there... its shows chilly stratiform rain with highs barely making it into the low 50s.   

 

 

[Jesse]

Looks like rain is about to hit the Portland area.

[Omegaraptor]

Looks like rain is about to hit the Portland area.

Light drizzle in Eastern Washington County right now.

[epiceast]

Plz verify

 

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Looks pretty bad to me. Boring cloudy weather w/ sprinkles, flooding here and bad skiing. Maybe drops the 850mb temps closer to 0 or below and then it wouldn't be so bad.

[Jesse]

Models seem to be really struggling with the upcoming pattern. Even in the mid-range.

[TT-SEA]

Models seem to be really struggling with the upcoming pattern. Even in the mid-range.

 

Looks like Jim might have made a good call about the pattern after April 1st... I knew not to doubt him!    He also called for the a record setting cold February and nailed it.  

[Jesse]

Raining here now. Looks like a pretty healthy band.

[TT-SEA]

And now the 12Z EPS basically agrees with the operational run with the big change for the middle of next week...

 

 

 

The control run is even colder with that trough.  

[TT-SEA]

Lots of sun with just thin high clouds here and 55 now.  

[Front Ranger]

And that is in real poor taste. Be better than a statement like that ok?

 

I'm out.

If you think that was in poor taste, you should hear some of Dewey's zingers.

[epiceast]

And now the 12Z EPS basically agrees with the operational run with the big change for the middle of next week...

 

 

 

The control run is even colder with that trough.  

Can't believe we 1-2'd the big anomalous ridge. First hit was last weekend it moved to Alberta and NW territories, now looks completely dead after a brief resurgance on Monday over interior west.

[Front Ranger]

Dont know how old you are, but this "curse" started with Bill Walton. Then moved to Sam Bowie. Then Oden, now Nurkic. Only true big man to ever stay healthy for the Blazers was Duckworth, RIP. Although he was a stalwart during the finals runs of the early 90s, I wouldnt put the Duck in the same league as these other guys.

You could probably add Sabonis to that list.

[TacomaWaWx]

North winds have pretty much ceased. Was actually pretty breezy earlier nothing major though.

Clouds have thickened up as well, radar shows precipitation as far north as centralia.

[Jesse]

That east wind is really battling the rain this time around. Only 0.01” so far for PDX.

[TT-SEA]

That east wind is really battling the rain this time around. Only 0.01” so far for PDX.

 

 

59 here with a dewpoint of 29 and filtered sun.   

 

Not expecting much rain at all tonight.

[High Desert Mat?]

That east wind is really battling the rain this time around. Only 0.01” so far for PDX.

Seems strange the east wind is dry. It’s been rain/snowing all morning and day over here. Saturation at its finest for the high desert.

[Jesse]

Seems strange the east wind is dry. It’s been rain/snowing all morning and day over here. Saturation at its finest for the high desert.

Probably some downsloping occurring. That tends to dry the airmass out.

[TT-SEA]

Seems strange the east wind is dry. It’s been rain/snowing all morning and day over here. Saturation at its finest for the high desert.

 

The east wind is upslope in your area and downslope in my area.  

[Jesse]

Seems strange the east wind is dry. It’s been rain/snowing all morning and day over here. Saturation at its finest for the high desert.

I’m guessing it’s because of downsloping.

[Jesse]

18z GFS sure gets us wet. Digs the trough early next week just a little farther offshore than the Euro.

[High Desert Mat?]

I’m guessing it’s because of downsloping.

My winds from the north or east are always upsloping but from the west or south they dry us out usually. Was just curious about the gorge since it’s almsot sea level at river level.

 

Started with snow this morning, cleared out a little and then a few t-storms came through about 3. Diverse day!