March 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just checked out the 00z GFS. It is very wet. 

[Phil]

Seeing a lot less D15 EPS images lately..

[ShawniganLake]

Seeing a lot less D15 EPS images lately..

Well how does it look?

[El_Nina]

Well how does it look?

They're gone,

[Omegaraptor]

Looks like the 00z GFS is spitting out record cold crap in the long run again. Don’t worry, it’ll change.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the 00z GFS is spitting out record cold crap in the long run again. Don’t worry, it’ll change.

 

That is not record cold. 

[Omegaraptor]

That is not record cold.

 

Well it sure looks like an extreme cold anomaly for mid-April.

 

Too bad it’s not accurate. Low 40s for Redding, high 40s for Red Bluff at 5PM = malarkey. The GFS does this all the time, overly aggressive with troughs and then backs off.

 

And it’s more than 240 hours out with no clear temperature pattern forming in the long run.

 

As I’ve said before, it’s not even the first time it’s happened this spring.

[Jesse]

Some cool clouds in Vancouver earlier this evening:

 

 

Most of the rain from those cells ended up west of here, but we did have a period of moderate to heavy rain around 7pm. 62/34 today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My lawn is growing like a mofo now. Going to have to mow the front this weekend. We will see if the snow piles make it until April...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some cool clouds in Vancouver earlier this evening:

 

D7F36169-71EC-4C33-90D7-070EDA018E8E.jpeg

 

Most of the rain from those cells ended up west of here, but we did have a period of moderate to heavy rain around 7pm. 62/34 today.

 

55/34 here. Only 0.40" of rain the past two days, but thunderstorms on back to back days which is a very rare feat. 

[TT-SEA]

Well how does it look?

 

No idea what he is talking about. I don't post it every day.

 

Here was the 10-15 day mean from the 12Z run... thrilling. I will be sure to post the 00Z run first thing in the morning.

 

 

 

[Tyler Mode]

A rather impressive gust front moved through yesterday evening, especially for west of the Cascades.  My wind went from calm to gusting to 31 mph.  There were some great cloud formations as well.  I only picked up 0.04" of rain however.

[Phil]

Well how does it look?

Trough west, ridge east, retrograding wavetrain.

 

[Blizzard777]

Beautiful cell formed just to the east of I-5 north of Centrailia yesterday. The cell was awesome looking with clear sky all around it and the defined hail and rain curtain below it. As luck would have it we crossed paths just south of Olympia! Good times!

[TacomaWaWx]

Was hoping for a little more sunshine than this today but I should manage. Kayaking today from The central Colvos passage up to Blake island today. 60 and cloudy should be warm enough to kayak

Anyone who hasn’t seen or heard of Blake island should check it out. Great view of downtown Seattle and the sound. Right next to the north tip of vashon island it’s a small island but has some interesting history to it.

Back in the 1920s it was owned by a rich man and his family which lived on it and had a spectacular estate. The wife of the rich man was killed in a car accident downtown Seattle in the early 30s. The family never returned to the island and the estate crumbled into decay until 20 years later some kids started a fire in the house and accidentally burned the place down. Interesting history!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am looking forward to mowing and completing other yard projects tomorrow.

[TT-SEA]

Looks wet.

 

 

Could be.   

[Guest CulverJosh]

Based off radar looks like it will be a nasty day up in the foothills. Looks like moisture is building west of Detroit. Seems like its always raining there.

[TT-SEA]

Based off radar looks like it will be a nasty day up in the foothills. Looks like moisture is building west of Detroit. Seems like its always raining there.

 

Beautiful day up here in the foothills... lots of sun now. 

 

It has not rained here since early Tuesday morning.

[jakeinthevalley]

Convective temp is only 57 today. Need some widespread clearing to get some things firing later. Upper air is a bit warmer at 500mb but all thing in place for another active day, provided we get some heating.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Based off radar looks like it will be a nasty day up in the foothills. Looks like moisture is building west of Detroit. Seems like its always raining there.

 

Was sunny at home this morning when I left for work. Low clouds and fog here in Salem until about 11a. Those echoes are more over the West Cascades, the western edge is like 20 miles east of where i live. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows basically no rain and pleasant weather for the Seattle area and northward until at least next Wednesday.   

 

Some rain down south early next week but it never really makes up here.   Its been trending warmer and drier up here over the last few runs.

[Front Ranger]

There was a wicked trough centered around this day in 2008. Shawnigan Lake was 36/32 on the 28th. With 9”+ of snow falling between the 27th and 29th.

 

Cold phase glory.

[Front Ranger]

12Z ECMWF shows basically no rain and pleasant weather for the Seattle area and northward until at least next Wednesday.   

 

Some rain down south early next week but it never really makes up here.   Its been trending warmer and drier up here over the last few runs.

 

Pleasantly droughty.

[Omegaraptor]

12Z ECMWF shows basically no rain and pleasant weather for the Seattle area and northward until at least next Wednesday.   

 

Some rain down south early next week but it never really makes up here.   Its been trending warmer and drier up here over the last few runs.

Well Oregon has been missing out for the last few months... finally we get a rain event of our own.

 

Looks like you were right about the strong marine push on April 1 - heavy cloud cover will prevent temps from getting to normal spring highs. Does the Euro still show the rain hitting south valley rather than Portland?

[Jesse]

Tim nailed that marine push.

[TT-SEA]

Interesting pattern later in the run... here is next Saturday.    Looks like a troughing settling in a for a long time.

 

 

 

And then just 24 hours later...

 

[TT-SEA]

Well Oregon has been missing out for the last few months... finally we get a rain event of our own.

 

Looks like you were right about the strong marine push on April 1 - heavy cloud cover will prevent temps from getting to normal spring highs. Does the Euro still show the rain hitting south valley rather than Portland?

 

 

Trending south on last couple runs... here is Monday afternoon on new 12Z ECMWF.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

I guess I am required to post the D15 image from the EPS now.

 

Here is the 12Z run... I believe this a very cold western trough.     

 

Actually... my guess is that the many of the individual members probably show a big ULL over the SW US and differences in placement make it look like an open trough on the mean.

 

 

[Jesse]

Anyone care to post the total precip map from the 12z Euro?

[Jesse]

Interesting pattern later in the run... here is next Saturday. Looks like a troughing settling in a for a long time.

 

 

And then just 24 hours later...

 

 

If you think that first frame is a precursor to a deep, long lasting western trough you need to work on your pattern recognition.

 

The energy digging off the Aleutians and the complete lack of high pressure/amplification over the NE Pacific are pretty clear indicators that a major trough is not moving in/settling in for the long haul on the next frame. Just a shortwave brushing us as it pivots SW to NE around the broad area of low heights over the Pacific, as shown.

[TT-SEA]

Anyone care to post the total precip map from the 12z Euro?

 

 

Looking better with the abandonment of the cold trough idea.   Most of this comes in a couple healthy bands of rain in the 7-10 day period.

 

The majority of the days are quite nice... at least up here.   This perfection in my opinion.   Lots of nice weather and still lots of rain in focused events.  

 

 

 

[Jesse]

Looks wet.

[Phil]

If you think that first frame is a precursor to a deep, long lasting western trough you need to work on your pattern recognition.

Yeah it didn’t look that way to me either.

 

And D11-15 is clearly a pattern of multiple shortwave impulses under a retrograding wavestation, which can be misinterpreted as ridging due to ensemble spread at longer ranges.

 

But when looking at the individual ensemble members, none of them have stable ridging.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah it didn’t look that way to me either.

 

And D11-15 is clearly a pattern of multiple shortwave impulses under a retrograding wavestation, which can be misinterpreted as ridging due to ensemble spread at longer ranges.

 

But when looking at the individual ensemble members, none of them have stable ridging.

 

 

I just thought it was interesting evolution for just 24 hours.    Sorry.    I still think its interesting.

 

And nobody said anything about stable ridging.     But I would like a link to individual members... because going through each day in the 11-15 day period on the mean it sure looks like a slow moving ULL going through the SW US.     The mean trough steadily moves east each day... instead of going back and forth like you would expect with multiple waves.

 

I don't care either way.   We really need rain and I would love a warm and wet pattern.   But it seems everything has to be turned into mocking on here.    

[Jesse]

I’m not seeing any mocking. Just a discussion of the pattern.

[Jesse]

Cells moving almost due west off the Cascades today. Doesn’t seem like a great trajectory for the Portland metro.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wet weather the past few days has bumped snowpack in the Southern Oregon Cascades to 118% of normal. The John Day Basin is now at 165% of normal. Pretty incredible. Snow pack usually peaks April 1 I believe so now its just about avoiding any extended periods of very warm weather. Hopefully we have a normal spring, if so we should be in decent shape. 

[El_Nina]

Cells moving almost due west off the Cascades today. Doesn’t seem like a great trajectory for the Portland metro.

They're very spotty too, not today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

They're very spotty too, not today.

 

Oh darn we have to endure a nice weekend.