Mountain West Discussion

[Front Ranger]

68F today, another record high. Earliest 68F on record. The earliest 69F (which is the monthly record) isn't until a full 22 days later on the 28th. Completely in a league of its own to see this kind of warmth so soon.

 

Pretty incredible.

 

It is worth noting, however, that SLC saw a high of 68 on 2/10/51, so there has been this kind of warmth pretty close to this time previously.

[Front Ranger]

I think its about 1930 for the airport location. But before that there was another station somewhere nearby that goes back to about 1880.

 

Yeah, the other SLC station saw a high of 65 on 2/3/53 and 69 on 2/10/51, so maybe a slightly warmer location. No doubt that 1951 event was the most comparable to this one.

 

Interestingly enough, DEN's monthly record warm temp for February (76) occurred early in the month, on 2/5/63. With a perfect storm of strong downsloping and mostly clear skies today, there's an outside shot they could hit it, as they're at 73 now.

 

Boulder also has an early record monthly temp, with 79 on 2/8/54. They're at 70, so no way that record falls.

[BLI snowman]

Already 65 so another record high in the books.

 

This morning the low was a mind-blowing 58F, remember the average high is 40F! Even though I don't think that will hold through midnight if it does it would destroy the previous record of 43F and the monthly record of 51F.

 

Their low was only 2 degrees away from the record high.

[Black Hole]

Yeah, the other SLC station saw a high of 65 on 2/3/53 and 69 on 2/10/51, so maybe a slightly warmer location. No doubt that 1951 event was the most comparable to this one.

 

Interestingly enough, DEN's monthly record warm temp for February (76) occurred early in the month, on 2/5/63. With a perfect storm of strong downsloping and mostly clear skies today, there's an outside shot they could hit it, as they're at 73 now.

 

Boulder also has an early record monthly temp, with 79 on 2/8/54. They're at 70, so no way that record falls.

Yeah I suppose the other was, but we are at 68F at the airport again today. In fact 69.7F at my place right now. That should be it though with a front moving in. Tomorrow will only be around 60 lol.

 

Their low was only 2 degrees away from the record high.

That's a pretty incredible feat.

[Black Hole]

The low was 51F at midnight last night so we ended up tying the monthly record and broke the daily record by 8F.

[Front Ranger]

DEN ended up topping out at 74 yesterday, breaking the daily record of 71 from 1987. Warmest February temperature since 2002.

 

Boulder hit 72, not a daily record, but still warmest February day since 2006.

[Black Hole]

DEN ended up topping out at 74 yesterday, breaking the daily record of 71 from 1987. Warmest February temperature since 2002.

 

Boulder hit 72, not a daily record, but still warmest February day since 2006.

Nice, we broke another record today at 64F.

[halofromajo]

Nice, we broke another record today at 64F.

Saturday and sunday will be going down also.  Friday looks like a borderline candidate.  Have I mentioned how bad this sucks?

[Black Hole]

Saturday and sunday will be going down also.  Friday looks like a borderline candidate.  Have I mentioned how bad this sucks?

Don't be too sad, we had our first high below 60 in like 5 days! lol The rain was nice. We will definitely be seeing a comparable warm spell later this week with perhaps another run at 70F.

[Dan the Weatherman]

We need to get into a more normal weather pattern soon because this warmth across the entire West has been unreal this winter. This has really been problematic for the ski resort industry as well as from a water supply standpoint.

[Front Ranger]

Don't be too sad, we had our first high below 60 in like 5 days! lol The rain was nice. We will definitely be seeing a comparable warm spell later this week with perhaps another run at 70F

 

Meanwhile, the East will be seeing incredible cold.

 

 

 

If things don't change, this could end up being one of the warmest Februaries on record for much of the West, while one of the coldest on record for much of the East. Incredible contrast.

[richard mann]

Why. ?  .. "Pop".  Professor.  Or whomever.

 

— Answer this question, and you've got a .. pretty go idea how "climate" works.  I'd say. 

[Black Hole]

00z GFS suddenly looking cold with some snow here next Mon-Tues. Nothing big, but its sure nice to see.

[Front Ranger]

00z GFS suddenly looking cold with some snow here next Mon-Tues. Nothing big, but its sure nice to see.

 

Euro on board for much colder weather soon as well.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Euro on board for much colder weather soon as well.

 

Hopefully this is a sign of a major pattern change coming!

[halofromajo]

Hopefully this is a sign of a major pattern change coming!

Now i know hr 240 is way off...  But my goodness, look at that snow for SLC on the 21st and 22nd.  These are things that make desperate powder hounds, like me self, giddy.  

[Black Hole]

Now i know hr 240 is way off...  But my goodness, look at that snow for SLC on the 21st and 22nd.  These are things that make desperate powder hounds, like me self, giddy.  

I can personally vouch for how desperate you are, but don't worry, we all are!

 

ECMWF was colder as Front Ranger said, with most of the ensembles going for some snow now too. 6z GFS is also the coldest yet with the GFS ensembles continuing to tank. Its already looking decent, and it wouldn't take much to make this a really solid cold wave.

[Black Hole]

Yeah, the GFS is quite promising.  The new version seems more reliable than the old one as well.

I've definitely noticed that there is a distinct lack of false alarms. It's nice in a way but maybe a little false hope is good sometimes.

[Front Ranger]

I've definitely noticed that there is a distinct lack of false alarms. It's nice in a way but maybe a little false hope is good sometimes.

 

Me too, although I have to remind myself we're still looking at a limited sample size. Some winters, for whatever reason, some models just handle the overall patterns better.

 

But let's hope the improvement so far for the GFS is for real!

[halofromajo]

 

Excuse me while i got drink my sorrow away on the slopes.

[Black Hole]

So about that no false alarms thing...

[halofromajo]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015021312/gfs_apcpn_nwus_40.png

Skiers everywhere be like.

 

http://cdn.inquisitr.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/panic-buttons.jpg

 

while at the same time...

http://themissouritorch.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Hyperventilate.gif

[Black Hole]

We have been above average for 40 days in a row now.

[Black Hole]

Oh, so the NWS SLC says SLC is +17.3F above normal for the first half of the month. That's a blowtorch if I've ever seen one!

[halofromajo]

This week has been like that scene in the perfect storm.  The GFS shows hope for a min, just like the sailors saw the sun and thought they were getting out, then bam, ridge of death comes back and kills winter for good.

[Front Ranger]

Under a WWA for 4-8" here through tomorrow. Despite the torch of the past several weeks, this winter still has the potential to turn out decent here as a whole, though it is unlikely we reach average seasonal snowfall.

 

The last couple runs of the Euro have shown a much colder, more active pattern setting in for the West days 6-10.

[Black Hole]

Under a WWA for 4-8" here through tomorrow. Despite the torch of the past several weeks, this winter still has the potential to turn out decent here as a whole, though it is unlikely we reach average seasonal snowfall.

 

The last couple runs of the Euro have shown a much colder, more active pattern setting in for the West days 6-10.

It's going to take the mother of all storms to get us out of F- territory here in SLC. But yeah, we will take what we can get  ECMWF ensembles look really nice.

[Dan the Weatherman]

It's going to take the mother of all storms to get us out of F- territory here in SLC. But yeah, we will take what we can get  ECMWF ensembles look really nice.

I sure hope the pattern turns more active soon! The entire West really needs rain and mountain snow right now. This "Octobruary" pattern is getting really old.

[Black Hole]

I sure hope the pattern turns more active soon! The entire West really needs rain and mountain snow right now. This "Octobruary" pattern is getting really old.

When comparing those two months I prefer the blend 'Focktober' but maybe that's just me

[Black Hole]

6z GFS has snow in the extended again.

[Front Ranger]

No bust this time, got about 6" here.

[Front Ranger]

Couple pics from the neighborhood this morning.

 

 

 

 

[Black Hole]

Couple pics from the neighborhood this morning.

 

2015new 057.jpg

 

2015new 060.jpg

That looks pretty great! Thanks for sharing. By the way how much do you know about severe weather forecasting?

[Front Ranger]

That looks pretty great! Thanks for sharing. By the way how much do you know about severe weather forecasting?

 

Not a lot. I know a little about cape, shear, and the general ingredients for severe weather, but just the basic stuff.

[Black Hole]

Not a lot. I know a little about cape, shear, and the general ingredients for severe weather, but just the basic stuff.

Ok, I'm interested in trying to get more knowledgeable on the stuff this year so I thought I would ask. I have a basic knowledge like you, but there just isn't enough severe weather in Utah to get any real practice. Don't remember any STW's last year at all.

[luminen]

Looks like another decent bout of cold and snow on tap for Denver this weekend. 

 

75% chance I'm moving there in late April/early May. Jobs in my field are rare in the PNW so...

[Front Ranger]

Looks like another decent bout of cold and snow on tap for Denver this weekend. 

 

75% chance I'm moving there in late April/early May. Jobs in my field are rare in the PNW so...

 

Yup, after going through a "false spring" for most of late Jan/early Feb, winter is returning with a vengeance.

 

What field are you in?

[luminen]

I'm a geologist (engineering, environmental, etc). 

[bainbridgekid]

I'm a geologist (engineering, environmental, etc). 

With our interesting geology, you'd think there would be more jobs in that.

[Front Ranger]

Winter Storm Watch for 8-16" this weekend.