April 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[TacomaWaWx]

25-50% of the time to go outside (assuming you are allergic to water and simply can’t leave the house unless conditions are anything but perfect) is still pretty good.

I actually prefer to go on walks all the time on rainy days vs sunny ones because then not too many people are out. I love the rain, and sun or any PNW day is beautiful. I know it doesn’t rain everyday here from October-April every year varies that’s just a rough outline of how the climate is here. That being said it does rain roughly half the days in the winter sometimes a little more sometimes a little less like this past March.

[TacomaWaWx]

I can normally do a lot outside in Oct-April (especially Oct and April) even discounting skiing.

 

If it drizzles 0.02” at night it’s counted as a rain day. If an AR dumps 1.5” over the entire day it’s also counted as one rain day. To say we’re consistently waterlogged is incorrect.

 

We don’t get extreme cold either unlike points east of the Rockies.

I know like a good amount of the days are gloomy days with a few hundredths of an inch or precip. I was just trying to make a general statement that we live in a fairly wet climate but everyone’s getting extra technical about what I said lol.

[TT-SEA]

Never said it was the same as Oregon. But clearly there have been a lot of anomalously hot and dry warm seasons up there lately too. The impact on vegetation and the precip/drought maps have reflected this well, even though it hasn’t been as severe as down here. And I really don’t care how completely normal your little microclimate was last summer. I am talking about western Washington as a whole.

 

 

Here are the JJA stats for SEA since 2013.

 

Normal rainfall in the JJA period at SEA is 3.21 inches.

 

2013 -  2.65   (-.56)

2014 -  3.31   (+.10)

2015 -  3.60   (+.39)

2016 -  2.66   (-.55)

2017 -  1.54   (-1.67)

2018 -  .088   (-2.33)

 

 

Last year was the only really dry JJA period.     Obviously its been warmer than normal too.   But it has not been shockingly dry.   

 

Also... SEA was very wet overall in the 2014-2017 period.     30+ inches above normal for that period. 

[Omegaraptor]

Here are the JJA stats for SEA since 2013.

 

Normal rainfall in the JJA period at SEA is 3.21 inches.

 

2013 - 2.65 (-.56)

2014 - 3.31 (+.10)

2015 - 3.60 (+.39)

2016 - 2.66 (-.55)

2017 - 1.54 (-1.67)

2018 - .088 (-2.33)

 

 

Last year was the only really dry JJA period. Obviously its been warmer than normal too. But it has not been shockingly dry.

 

Also... SEA was very wet overall in the 2014-2017 period. 30+ inches above normal for that period.

 

How hard did the December 2015 ARs hit Seattle?

 

EDIT: 11.21” at SEA. Not as wet as PDX but still a very wet month.

[GHweatherChris]

Goof lord, not again....

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS was not real troughy... below normal height anomalies seem to be focused to the west and and east through most of the run.   

 

At least it should be a little drier overall than the last 10 days.

 

 

 

5-10 day period:

 

 

 

10-15 day period:

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Today is the 10th day in a row with measurable precipitation in Seattle. Making that the longest stretch of measurable precip in the month of April since 1963. Kind of an interesting statistic. I know that one or a couple of those days were like 0.05” or 0.01” of precip however.

[TT-SEA]

Today is the 10th day in a row with measurable precipitation in Seattle. Making that the longest stretch of measurable precip in the month of April since 1963. Kind of an interesting statistic. I know that one or a couple of those days were like 0.05” or 0.01” of precip however.

 

Correction on my previous post... normal rainfall for April at SEA is 2.91 inches.

 

So right around normal now for all of April.  

[TacomaWaWx]

Correction on my previous post... normal rainfall for April at SEA is 2.91 inches.

 

So right around normal now for all of April.

all good news, will get a little more here before the month ends too so we should be close to on track after the march deficit.

[Blizzard777]

Flatironing!

Lord I have tried to figure how this word associates with Front Ranger. Time for answers ! I will sit silent no more....I want the Truth, even if it’s stupid!

I like stupid and silly so bring it on

 

Sun shining in Tigard

Looks depressing back home

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Precip every day this month so far here. 

 

Sun peaking out though!

[TT-SEA]

Lord I have tried to figure how this word associates with Front Ranger. Time for answers ! I will sit silent no more....I want the Truth, even if it’s stupid!

I like stupid and silly so bring it on

 

Sun shining in Tigard

Looks depressing back home

 

That used to be his user name.   It references a mountain range near Boulder.  

 

Here is a pic of the actual Flatirons. 

 

http://coloradoms.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/The-Flatirons-Boulder-Colorado-Rock-Climbing-Guide-Service.jpg

[Jesse]

That used to be his user name. It references a mountain range near Boulder.

 

Here is a pic of the actual Flatirons.

 

http://coloradoms.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/The-Flatirons-Boulder-Colorado-Rock-Climbing-Guide-Service.jpg

Those are some argumentative looking mountains.

 

But at least they appear to be making some good points! Lol!!

[Jesse]

00Z EPS was not real troughy... below normal height anomalies seem to be focused to the west and and east through most of the run.

 

At least it should be a little drier overall than the last 10 days.

 

5-10 day period:

 

10-15 day period:

 

 

Looks like it has definitely trended less ridgy. Same with the GFS ensembles. Good agreement on a quick crash back to cool and wet at times after the late week ridge, on the 12z GEFS.

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like it has definitely trended less ridgy. Same with the GFS ensembles. Good agreement on a quick crash back to cool and wet at times after the late week ridge, on the 12z GEFS.

 

31D6C5E3-B514-4C54-8791-877526F8C778.png

It’ll be interesting to see how this May plays out weatherwise, wether it’ll be dry and warm like last may or maybe a little more wet.

[Blizzard777]

That used to be his user name.   It references a mountain range near Boulder.  

 

Here is a pic of the actual Flatirons. 

 

http://coloradoms.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/The-Flatirons-Boulder-Colorado-Rock-Climbing-Guide-Service.jpg

Those are some Huge Flatirons!

Thanks for the knowledge and putting a end to this mystery

[Jesse]

It’ll be interesting to see how this May plays out weatherwise, wether it’ll be dry and warm like last may or maybe a little more wet.

My guess would be a little more wet since there’s really nowhere to go but up after one of the region’s driest Mays on record, but who knows.

 

I am glad to see we will not be following last year’s script with a sudden switch to warm and dry in mid-April, at least.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Precip every day this month so far here. 

 

Sun peaking out though!

 

Of course it started raining immediately after I posted this.

[Jesse]

Of course it started raining immediately after I posted this.

I see some big convective clouds building here and there. Just had a light shower too. Perhaps today will be a little more active than anticipated.

[TacomaWaWx]

My guess would be a little more wet since there’s really nowhere to go but up after one of the region’s driest Mays on record, but who knows.

 

I am glad to see we will not be following last year’s script with a sudden switch to warm and dry in mid-April, though.

Last May was dry. I remember on the 2nd of last May it was 80 degrees, I made the mistake of going on a long kayaking trip without any sunscreen and got burned bad. Was a hot day, that day and basically the start of an unusually hot dry summer last year. The April before that was wet, this one has been wet. Will be interesting to see if next month is completely different than May of 2018, my guess is it would be the same this year but there’s no way to tell how it’s going to end up.

[Omegaraptor]

Someone mentioned at the beginning of March that the temp records being broken in eastern OR and WA could be indicative of a regime change.

 

Does all the weird weather since Feb 1 indicate the regime change Phil is talking about (Pacific High-dominated summer)? Longest time without a single 50°F high (in February and early March), then Seattle broke the all time March temperature record, and now this April is already record wet in some areas and has been unusually cloudy.

 

Not to even mention the extreme weather in other parts of the country. Something has to be happening with all these records getting effortlessly smashed.

[Jesse]

Someone mentioned at the beginning of March that the temp records being broken in eastern OR and WA could be indicative of a regime change.

 

Does all the weird weather since Feb 1 indicate the regime change Phil is talking about (Pacific High-dominated summer)? Longest time without a single 50°F high (in February and early March), then Seattle broke the all time March temperature record, and now this April is already record wet in some areas and has been unusually cloudy.

 

Not to even mention the extreme weather in other parts of the country. Something has to be happening with all these records getting effortlessly smashed.

 

Weather has literally never been variable until the last decade or so.

[Omegaraptor]

Weather has literally never been variable until the last decade or so.

I’m not denying that very variable weather hasn’t happened in the past. It just seems especially weird this year, not just in the PNW, but all over the country.

[Phil]

Still some catching up to do for western WA especially.

 

YearPNormWRCC-NW.png

And it will be done.

[Phil]

But it would not surprise me if 2019 ends up drier than normal in up here.

Possible, but unlikely.

[Phil]

Here are the JJA stats for SEA since 2013.

 

Normal rainfall in the JJA period at SEA is 3.21 inches.

 

2013 - 2.65 (-.56)

2014 - 3.31 (+.10)

2015 - 3.60 (+.39)

2016 - 2.66 (-.55)

2017 - 1.54 (-1.67)

2018 - .088 (-2.33)

 

 

Last year was the only really dry JJA period. Obviously its been warmer than normal too. But it has not been shockingly dry.

 

Also... SEA was very wet overall in the 2014-2017 period. 30+ inches above normal for that period.

The region as a whole was dry during those summers. Localized flukes at SEA don’t change reality.

[Jesse]

The region as a whole was dry during those summers. Localized flukes at SEA don’t change reality.

Tim loves cherry picking so much his favorite search engine is bing.

[Jesse]

Looks like the Euro has followed the GFS back to the idea of a bigger crash after the ridge next week.

[Phil]

Precip every day this month so far here.

 

Sun peaking out though!

Peeking.

[Omegaraptor]

Looks like the Euro has followed the GFS back to the idea of a bigger crash after the ridge next week.

To what extent does it look to be? Will it be more like early in the month where the highs were in the high 50s low 60s with more convective rainshowers? Or is it too far out to tell?

[Phil]

In the “present temperatures are not unprecedented” department, here’s a White spruce dated to ~ 5000 years before present (which would be the end stages of the Holocene climate optimum). This is roughly 80-100km north of the current tree line.

 

This region borders the Arctic Ocean and is now Tundra.

 

[Jesse]

To what extent does it look to be? Will it be more like early in the month where the highs were in the high 50s low 60s with more convective rainshowers? Or is it too far out to tell?

 

Really too far out to tell, but at face value there would be some chilly rain and mountain snow by next Saturday. Highs maybe in the low 50s. Downright wintery and totally unheard of for late April if you have only been living in this area/paying attention to the weather for a few years.

[Front Ranger]

Flatironing!

 

Copouting.

 

It was a map, dude. They get posted all the time in these convos.

[Jesse]

In the “present temperatures are not unprecedented” department, here’s a White spruce dated to ~ 5000 years before present (which would be the end stages of the Holocene climate optimum). This is roughly 80-100km north of the current tree line.

 

This region borders the Arctic Ocean and is now Tundra.

 

 

How did you manage to snag that from the book burning?

[Front Ranger]

...How so? It doesn’t usually rain 50%-75% of the days inbetween October and april?

 

Much closer to 50%. But even then, it's probably only raining at any given moment you go outside about 20% of the time.

[Front Ranger]

Those are some argumentative looking mountains.

 

But at least they appear to be making some good points! Lol!!

 

Let's be honest. Reputations aside, you calling me argumentative is kind of a pot/kettle/black thing. 

[Jesse]

PDX is down a degree to 55.

[Phil]

How did you manage to snag that from the book burning?

Pumped gigatonnes of CO^2 into the library. Starved the flames just in time.

[Front Ranger]

Those are some Huge Flatirons!

Thanks for the knowledge and putting a end to this mystery

 

I work about 10 minutes from where that pic was taken. 

 

You'll also note you can see them in my member pic.

[Jesse]

I work about 10 minutes from where that pic was taken. 

 

You'll also note you can see them in my member pic.

 

No one wants to see any of your member pics.