April 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[snow_wizard]

I’m intrigued by the potential for a spike of warmth followed by a crash back to cool late next week. Dynamic patterns like that are the most fun.

 

Yup.  My big problem has been with endless gloom and drizzle the past couple of weeks.  I like dynamic variability this time of year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I have just always hated cold water pouring down on me.  I endure it sometimes out of necessity.  

 

We average 80" of rain a year so you kind of get used to it. Last year and 2013 were two of the driest years on record up here and we had about 55-60" of precip. 

[Jesse]

Yup.  My big problem has been with endless gloom and drizzle the past couple of weeks.  I like dynamic variability this time of year.

 

Well it was a very dry March, especially up there. So this was sort of to be expected. You have been complaining even more than Tim lately which is unusual. Seems you may be getting quite antsy for a move.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yup.  My big problem has been with endless gloom and drizzle the past couple of weeks.  I like dynamic variability this time of year.

 

I kind of enjoyed the Friday-Tuesday period because to have heavy rain sustain itself for that long this time of year is extremely unusual. I know it was more drizzly and intermittent up there though. 

[Phil]

This could be the moment of truth for the future (or lack therof) for this El Nino. For the first time in a year the Equatorial subsurface sea temps at 155 meters are not warmer than normal. If we can avoid a WWB for a while longer this Nino may peak in the early summer and fall from there. As of right now no WWB is in sight.

Keep in mind the IPWP domain is cold, in tandem with a warm W-IO/+IOD and +PMM.

 

You would expect some slacking under feedback from the KW return cycle, but large scale boundary conditions are still clearly in El Niño mode.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snow pack recovering nicely. 

 

https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/or_swepctnormal_update.pdf

[Front Ranger]

Pretty spectacular precip anomaly gradient for the Willamette Valley the past month.

 

[Phil]

Keep in mind the IPWP domain is cold, in tandem with a warm W-IO/+IOD and +PMM.

 

You would expect some slacking under feedback from the KW return cycle, but large scale boundary conditions are still clearly in El Niño mode.

If +QBO/increasing stability alone is (somehow) able to work with the KW return and Asian monsoonal initiation to cap things at warm neutral, it just delays the El Niño by another year, because the IPWP is still extended, and it won’t retract until the next full blown El Niño.

 

There’s essentially no chance at -ENSO under these conditions. The conduit to the IPWP retraction runs through El Niño, and 2018/19 did not achieve this because it wasn’t really an established event at all.

[TT-SEA]

Well it was a very dry March, especially up there. So this was sort of to be expected. You have been complaining even more than Tim lately which is unusual. Seems you may be getting quite antsy for a move.

 

 

He has been much more vocal than me about his complaints regarding rain and gloom for a few years now.   

[TT-SEA]

The 12Z EPS agrees with the ECMWF operational run through day 7... but then does not show the trough in the 8-10 day period that the operational run shows.

 

Here is day 9:

 

 

 

[Jesse]

He has been much more vocal about his complaints regarding rain and gloom than me for a few years now.   

 

Makes sense given how historically dry the last few warm seasons have been for you. Consistent rain seems to bother him more during the cooler times of year since it ruins cold night potential.

[Phil]

Well it is how she has been raised.

[Phil]

The 12Z EPS agrees with the ECMWF operational run through day 7... but then does not show the trough in the 8-10 day period that the operational run shows.

 

Here is day 9:

 

 

 

Even on the EPS, you can tell that wave-station would not be conducive to any ridging of prolonged nature. Aleutian anticyclone under +NAM is dispersive and progressive.

[Jesse]

Looking at that wave-station on the EPS, you can see that it would not be conducive to any ridging of prolonged nature. Aleutian anticyclone under +NAM is dispersive and progressive.

 

Yeah, I was gonna say. Also, those two maps are surprisingly similar considering one is a smoothed day 9 ensemble mean.

[TT-SEA]

Makes sense given how historically dry the last few warm seasons have been for you. Consistent rain seems to bother him more during the cooler times of year since it ruins cold night potential.

 

No... he has decided that he hates it here and will be moving eventually.     And your statements about how dry it has been up here is misguided.   And you are over-simplifying my preferences.   

 

There was just 8 days with rain here in July and August of 2012... and only 4 days with rain in July and August of 2011.

 

But last year there was 9 days with rain in July and August.    And it was much more smoky and gross thank to fires up in BC and down in CA.  

 

So I actually preferred July and August of 2011 and 2012 over 2018.   But that does not fit your narrative that the only reason I am happy is because of how hot and dry its been.    I hated last August.  

[Front Ranger]

Tim's EPS interpretations are probably the most controversial thing on the forum these days.

[TT-SEA]

10-15 day mean from the EPS...

 

[Front Ranger]

No... he has decided that he hates it here and will be moving eventually.     And your statements about how dry it has been up here is misguided.   And you are over-simplifying my preferences.   

 

There was just 8 days with rain here in July and August of 2012... and only 4 days with rain in July and August of 2011.

 

But last year there was 9 days with rain in July and August.    And it was much more smoky and gross thank to fires up in BC and down in CA.  

 

So I actually preferred July and August of 2011 and 2012 over 2018.   But that does not fit your narrative that the only reason I am happy is because of how hot and dry its been.    I hated last August.  

 

He said warm seasons. That spans a lot more than August.

[Jesse]

Tim's EPS interpretations are probably the most controversial thing on the forum these days.

 

Intellectual dishonesty will always be controversial! (hopefully) Same reason there is such a fuss about Flatironing.

[Phil]

So I actually preferred July and August of 2011 and 2012 over 2018. But that does not fit your narrative that the only reason I am happy is because of how hot and dry its been. I hated last August.

Dude, come on.

[Jesse]

10-15 day mean from the EPS...

 

 

 

Look at that big, blue ridge spanning down from Alaska/NW Canada into the NE Pacific. Signature warm and dry set up.

[TT-SEA]

Tim's EPS interpretations are probably the most controversial thing on the forum these days.

 

 

Yeah... I am so wrong all the time.    The EPS does not show much troughing.     It would be fairly dry and pleasant overall.   Much better than the first half of April at least.

 

I have never said it shows a huge ridge parked over us for weeks.   Phil always implies that is what I am saying with every post.   Which is of course completely wrong and just stupid.   

[TT-SEA]

Look at that big, blue ridge spanning down from Alaska/NW Canada into the NE Pacific. Signature warm and dry set up.

 

 

Oh wait.... that does not show 105 degrees and blazing sun?  

 

Sorry... I will remove that comment.   I said the EPS shows 105 degrees and sun every day.    Intellectually dishonest!   My bad.

[Phil]

10-15 day mean from the EPS...

 

If that verified, I’m 100% certain you would hate it.

 

That’s actually closer to a 2010-12 type pattern. Minus the Greenland ridging.

[TT-SEA]

Dude, come on.

 

 

Absolutely.     Last August was probably my least favorite August here.    It was disgusting.

 

But August of 2011 and 2012 were sunny most of the time and pleasant with highs in the 70s and a deep blue sky.

[TT-SEA]

If that verified, I’m 100% certain you would hate it.

 

That’s actually closer to a 2010-12 type pattern.

 

 

You are wrong.

 

I don't hate all rain.    That is a fairly decent pattern even though it would not be dry.

 

This is the pattern that truly sucks in my area... non-stop rain with a perpetual warm front in NW flow.    This is the opposite of the EPS in the 10-15 day period.

 

[Phil]

You are wrong.

 

I don't hate all rain. That is a fairly decent pattern even though it would not be dry.

 

This is the pattern that truly sucks in my area... non-stop rain with a perpetual warm front in NW flow.

 

Well, we can both agree that is the worst pattern. Always warm and humid here with the Gulf moisture pump. Gonna be swampy as heck tomorrow evening (by April standards).

 

But the EPS pattern would be lots of onshore flow, multiple shortwaves (smoothing hides that) and would evolve into something similar to now (as modeled). Note the forward tilt of the SW US anticyclone..that’s indicative of a discontinuous retrogression beneath the progressive pacific.

[Jesse]

Rain is tapering off here. Received about .10”

so far today. Chilly currently at 48 degrees.

[TT-SEA]

Well, we can both agree that is the worst pattern. Always warm and humid here with the gulf moisture draw.

 

But the EPS pattern would be lots of onshore flow, multiple shortwaves (smoothing hides that) and would evolve into something similar to now (as modeled). Note the forward tilt of the SW US anticyclone..that’s indicative of a discontinuous retrogression beneath the progressive pacific regime.

 

 

Great.   Why do you assume every map I post means that I think it will be VERY hot and VERY dry here.   

 

There are many types of rain here.   The last week has featured the worst possible pattern for my area in my opinion.   It never stops raining.

 

Anything else is welcomed now.   And the EPS does not show the pattern of the past week returning in the next 2 weeks.  

[TT-SEA]

July - September of 2012 was probably my favorite warm season period here.

 

It rained on just 5 days in those 3 months... and was quite sunny but with no extreme heat.    It was basically postcard perfect weather for 3 straight months. 

[Front Ranger]

Intellectual dishonesty will always be controversial! (hopefully) Same reason there is such a fuss about Flatironing.

It doesn't always have to be about me, Jesse.

 

I'm still waiting for my "intellectual dishonesty" to be pointed out. Falling back on a tired and overused term over and over just makes it more meaningless.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah... I am so wrong all the time. The EPS does not show much troughing. It would be fairly dry and pleasant overall. Much better than the first half of April at least.

 

I have never said it shows a huge ridge parked over us for weeks. Phil always implies that is what I am saying with every post. Which is of course completely wrong and just stupid.

Implied hyperbole runs amock here, that's for sure!

[Omegaraptor]

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/04/heavy-convergence-zone-rainfall.html

 

New Cliff Mass article on the recent convergence zone rain in Western WA.

[TT-SEA]

It doesn't always have to be about me, Jesse.

 

I'm still waiting for my "intellectual dishonesty" to be pointed out. Falling back on a tired and overused term over and over just makes it more meaningless.

 

 

I guess my intellectual dishonesty stems from Jesse assuming that I am always saying it will be hot and dry.    Even though I am almost never saying that.

 

And the inverse of that... I can think Jesse is always saying we will have record cold and record rain.   So anything he says is intellectually dishonest.  Not because of what he is actually saying... but because of what I assume he is saying.     

[Jesse]

I guess my intellectual dishonesty stems from Phil assuming that I am always saying it will be hot and dry.    Even though I am almost never saying that.

 

And the inverse of that... Phil is always saying we will have record cold and record rain.   So anything he says is intellectually dishonest.   Not because of what he is actually saying... but because of what I assume he is saying.     

 

No. For the record you rarely straight up fabricate, you just spin things and cherrypick a lot. It happens. Accept and embrace!

[MossMan]

41 degrees in the afternoon in mid April...Cannot wait to get past this crappy month.

.33” on the day so far.

[Front Ranger]

July - September of 2012 was probably my favorite warm season period here.

 

It rained on just 5 days in those 3 months... and was quite sunny but with no extreme heat. It was basically postcard perfect weather for 3 straight months.

5 days in 3 months is extremely dry. You're kind of giving credence to the claims that you like extreme dryness.

[GHweatherChris]

Lots of hypocrisy and narcissism in here today...

[Jesse]

41 degrees in the afternoon in mid April...Cannot wait to get past this crappy month.

.33” on the day so far.

 

[TT-SEA]

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/04/heavy-convergence-zone-rainfall.html

 

New Cliff Mass article on the recent convergence zone rain in Western WA.

 

Sums the situation up nicely... it has been raining for almost a week straight out here and the reservoirs are almost full now in the Central Cascades where the snow pack is below normal.