April 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[Front Ranger]

Funny how Sistek said confidently today would be the end of the rain streak and sure enough it looks like SEA is going to get rain before midnight. Funny how these stark changes in weather go unnoticed unless it is a record or potential snow.

 

Only a trace, so the streak ends.

[jcmcgaffey]

Only a trace, so the streak ends.

Ya saw that. Too bad. Was really surprised as I was near SEA driving north and it was raining enough to make the pavement wet and use windshield wipers all the way up to north Seattle but must not have been enough.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If the 06z GFS verifies we'll get about 0.25" of rain the rest of the month. ,Looks like 2018 is coming back!

[Guest CulverJosh]

Beautiful 32 degrees this morning with bright sunshine.  As you guys can see, I am now in Bend.  High desert Mat and I will have to compare notes now.

[Omegaraptor]

If the 06z GFS verifies we'll get about 0.25" of rain the rest of the month. ,Looks like 2018 is coming back!

Both 00z and 06z look warm and very dry.

[TacomaWaWx]

We’re definitely in better shape than we were a few weeks ago. But the conditions in mid-April don’t tell us much about how this summer will be, as illustrated by last year.

Well Yeah I don’t mean that the summer will be hotter or colder I meant the snowpack in the mountains should be good at this point. I didn’t mean to infer what the weather would be like this summer. Obviously last April had substantial rain and we had a substantial fire season still.

[Jesse]

Well Yeah I don’t mean that the summer will be hotter or colder I meant the snowpack in the mountains should be good at this point. I didn’t mean to infer what the weather would be like this summer. Obviously last April had substantial rain and we had a substantial fire season still.

Looks like the central Washington Cascades are at 66% of normal snowpack as of this morning.

[TT-SEA]

Well Yeah I don’t mean that the summer will be hotter or colder I meant the snowpack in the mountains should be good at this point. I didn’t mean to infer what the weather would be like this summer. Obviously last April had substantial rain and we had a substantial fire season still.

 

 

The smoke last summer was primarily from central and northern BC, California, and even from Siberia.   

[Jesse]

The smoke last summer was primarily from central and northern BC, California, and even from Siberia.

There was no smoke from Siberia. But yeah, it was a very bad fire season up and down the west coast, mainly because of the semi-permanent trough that sat over us much of the warm season.

[Front Ranger]

If the 06z GFS verifies we'll get about 0.25" of rain the rest of the month. ,Looks like 2018 is coming back!

 

The only thing more trustworthy than the CFS is the long range GFS.

 

In fact, I'm pretty sure one is just an extension of the other!

[TT-SEA]

There was no smoke from Siberia. But yeah, it was a very bad fire season up and down the west coast, mainly because of the semi-permanent trough that sat over us much of the warm season.

 

Yes there was smoke from Siberia.

 

https://crosscut.com/2018/07/first-smoky-skies-season-arrive-seattle-siberia

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Yes there was smoke from Siberia.

 

https://crosscut.com/2018/07/first-smoky-skies-season-arrive-seattle-siberia

 

either way we had fires causing smoke here in WA too, not just from CA OR and BC. It wasn’t the worst fire season ever or anything but still. It was definitely more significant in other places than it was here however.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the central Washington Cascades are at 66% of normal snowpack as of this morning.

 

Reservoirs are fine...

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like the central Washington Cascades are at 66% of normal snowpack as of this morning.

That is lower than it was just a couple days ago, suprising considering the convergence zone activity in the central WA cascades. Either way we’re doing a lot better snowpack wise than 2015.

[TT-SEA]

That is much lower than it was just a couple days ago, suprising considering the convergence zone activity in the central WA cascades. Either way we’re doing a lot better snowpack wise than 2015.

 

 

No... that is not much lower than a couple days ago.    It was about the same at the start of April.  

[TacomaWaWx]

No... that is not much lower than a couple days ago. It was about the same at the start of April.

I thought it was in the mid 80% range when I checked just last week I must have been mistaken.

[Jesse]

I thought it was in the mid 80% range when I checked just last week I must have been mistaken.

South central Washington cascades (Mount Rainier area) is around 85%. It gets worse as you go north.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Go Hawks!!!!!!  140 million reasons to be happy this morning!!!

[TT-SEA]

Looks like it should be a fairly nice weekend.   I am thankful for that.  

 

It does not need to rain every day.   It would be nice if nature would spread it out across the entire warm season this year. 

[Jesse]

Yes there was smoke from Siberia.

 

 

Guess it got lost in the shitstorm of local fires. I don’t remember this.

[TacomaWaWx]

South central Washington cascades (Mount Rainier area) is around 85%. It gets worse as you go north.

I must have gotten the numbers mixed up. It definitely is worse the farther north you go, but even with this we’re better than 2015 by 50-60% in many places in the WA cascades and we survived that. Like Tim said the resivoirs are doing alright as well.

[TacomaWaWx]

Go Hawks!!!!!! 140 million reasons to be happy this morning!!!

107 million dollars guaranteed, he’s a top 5 QB, huge to the teams success and the Seattle community. He deserves it.

[TT-SEA]

Guess it got lost in the shitstorm of local fires. I don’t remember this.

 

I remember being inundated with smoke from fires in central and northern BC and then later coming up from California.   

 

I don't think there was much smoke up here from "local" fires.    There are many satellite images available from Cliff Mass last August.    The sources are pretty clear.    

[Jesse]

I remember being inundated with smoke from fires in central and northern BC and then later coming up from California.

 

I don't think there was much smoke up here from "local" fires. There are many satellite images available from Cliff Mass last August. The sources are pretty clear.

Yes, a very bad fire season for all of western North America.

[TacomaWaWx]

Yes, a very bad fire season for all of western North America.

my brother was one of the firefighters in North central WA last summer. From what he told me it was hell last year. The years before one of my buddies was a wildland firefighter for a couple years and he actually saw someone die unfortunately. People don’t even realize how hard it is to be out there sleeping in dense smoke and sometimes on the ground for weeks fighting fires.

[Jesse]

my brother was one of the firefighters in North central WA last summer. From what he told me it was hell last year. The years before one of my buddies was a wildland firefighter for a couple years and he actually saw someone die unfortunately. People don’t even realize how hard it is to be out there sleeping in dense smoke and sometimes on the ground for weeks fighting fires.

Wow, kudos to them. That is a pretty brave profession to

get into.

[TacomaWaWx]

Wow, kudos to them. That is a pretty brave profession to

get into.

Yeah a lot more brave than I am. Hopefully nobody is harmed by fires this season.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow, kudos to them. That is a pretty brave profession to

get into.

 

When we were in Arizona we hiked the Granite Mountain Hotshot Memorial Trail. Incredible views and so surreal to be hiking it in 38 degree drizzle...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Fire season wasn't as bad last year in Oregon as 2017. There were some big fires near Grants Pass though. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z brings some light rain back on Friday. Weekend ruined.

[Blizzard777]

2.23 precipitation for month including the .05 that fell overnight

Slugs are happy once again

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Maybe some rain PDX north next Monday. #Workweek ruined.

[Jesse]

12z brings some light rain back on Friday. Weekend ruined.

 

Weekend looks almost completely DRY AFTER MID DAY FRIDAY.

[Omegaraptor]

Hasn’t every model been showing rain on Friday? That’s even the reason Portland will be warm on Thursday but not Seattle.

[Jesse]

Hasn’t every model been showing rain on Friday? That’s even the reason Portland will be warm on Thursday but not Seattle.

 

Seems the models have been dialing back the warmth a little that day, with the rain band and associated clouds closer to us. Could have trouble hitting 70.

[Omegaraptor]

Seems the models have been dialing back the warmth a little that day, with the rain band and associated clouds closer to us. Could have trouble hitting 70.

Sounder shows 74°F at my lat/long. The rain band seems to hit mainly north of Columbia and Cowlitz counties.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Weekend looks almost completely DRY AFTER MID DAY FRIDAY.

 

Some of the grass may be wet and we'll still be dealing with the fresh and painful memory. #FML

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the John Day River is forecast to reach moderate flood stage again this weekend due to melting snow. Snow pack in the John Day Basin is now 225% of normal.

[Jesse]

Sounder shows 74°F at my lat/long. The rain band seems to hit mainly north of Columbia and Cowlitz counties.

Is sounder a new iPhone weather app?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Models definitely trending towards a 2018-like solution #newnormal.