April 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[Jesse]

This was unexpected...

 

#headfake

[Jesse]

Solidly cool 54/40 at PDX today. Good for a -5F departure.

[TT-SEA]

This was unexpected...

 

According to Phil... that would just set up a moderate/strong Nino in 2020-21.

 

I personally love either side of neutral.

[Omegaraptor]

18z GFS tuning down on the cold front shown in previous models after next weekend.

[Jesse]

PDX area scoring big time with this precip.

[Blizzard777]

Spitting rain in Federal Way now

[Omegaraptor]

PDX is at .09" on the day so far.

[Jesse]

Chilly for an April evening out there. 44 here with light rain. Up to .15” for the day.

[Phil]

The long range EPS had me pretty convinced.

FWIW, the extended range EPS has a WPAC/warm pool forcing bias to some extent, so you’d expect it to lean somewhat aggressive with the +TNH type pattern after D10 anyway.

[Jesse]

FWIW, the extended range EPS has a WPAC/warm pool forcing bias to some extent, so you’d expect it to lean somewhat aggressive with the +TNH type pattern after D10 anyway.

A +TNT patterns sounds pretty dynamite.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW, the extended range EPS has a WPAC/warm pool forcing bias to some extent, so you’d expect it to lean somewhat aggressive with the +TNH type pattern after D10 anyway.

 

 

Interesting... so that is why it has not been warm for several years.    Always seems like its coming on the EPS... but it always ends up cold in reality.

[jcmcgaffey]

Funny how Sistek said confidently today would be the end of the rain streak and sure enough it looks like SEA is going to get rain before midnight. Funny how these stark changes in weather go unnoticed unless it is a record or potential snow.

[Phil]

This was unexpected...

 

All hail the CFS.

 

Because Niños always peak in JJA.

[Phil]

Interesting... so that is why it has not been warm for several years. Always seems like its coming on the EPS... but it always ends up cold in reality.

No, that’s why it has been so warm for the last several years. The low frequency system state has played into the general bias of the EPS/ECMWF.

[TacomaWaWx]

Funny how Sistek said confidently today would be the end of the rain streak and sure enough it looks like SEA is going to get rain before midnight. Funny how these stark changes in weather go unnoticed unless it is a record or potential snow.

it’s been doing a little light rain here for the past hour now but only 0.03” so far. Looks like the rain is trying to creep up to Seattle, even just 0.01” will keep that streak going.

[Jesse]

No, that’s why it has been so warm for the last several years. The low frequency system state has played to the biases of Tim.

Very true.

[Phil]

A +TNT patterns sounds pretty dynamite.

If I get the chance to invent/publish an index that gains credulity, I’ll find a way to give it that acronym. Haha.

[TT-SEA]

No, that’s why it has been so warm for the last several years. The low frequency system state has played into the general bias of the EPS/ECMWF.

So the EPS has been predicting nature accurately? Good to know.

 

But of course now it will become the worst model ever created once we go into the ice age right?

 

And the GEM will rule the world!

[TT-SEA]

For the record... I have honestly never seen a model more consistent with an extreme pattern than the EPS was for a month leading up to and into the cold pattern recently. I had to check each time to determine if it had actually updated.

 

It was surreal. And the only model to do that with that pattern. It was an endless ice box through day 15 for a long time. And every run looked the same.

[Phil]

So the EPS has been predicting nature accurately? Good to know.

 

But of course now it will become the worst model ever created once we go into the ice age right?

 

And the GEM will rule the world!

If it gets you through the night. ️

 

The same model biases manifest with MJO waves initialized at different locations/seasons. Their prominence can be state dependent but their existence may not be irrespective of the resolution at which they manifest (and instead could be rooted within the model physics).

[Phil]

All models have biases and the EPS is still vastly superior to all other guidance at this point.

 

But to deny the bias to excessive WPAC/E-IPWP forcing especially when initializing excessive IO convection is to deny all of the most recent published verification literature (and reality).

[TT-SEA]

All models have biases and the EPS is still vastly superior to all other guidance at this point.

 

 

 

Agreed.   

[High Desert Mat?]

Good god.....

[Phil]

Agreed.

Keep in mind, this is in reference to the planetary verification score(s). It might not hold true for your tiny corner of the planet.

 

Could even be the inverse! There are some small areas on the globe where the GFS outperforms the ECMWF, for instance.

[TT-SEA]

Keep in mind, this is in reference to the planetary verification score(s). It might not hold true for your tiny corner of the planet.

 

Could even be the inverse! There are some small areas on the globe where the GFS outperforms the ECMWF, for instance.

 

Yeah... I track the EPS all the time and it almost always leads the way.   Its like a having a cheat sheet when the models are all over the place. 

 

No model is perfect... but its the best model by far for our area. 

[Phil]

Okay, Tim. The EPS is god, and you’re its scribe, because nobody monitors it as closely as you do.

[TT-SEA]

Okay, Tim.

The EPS is god, and you’re its scribe, because nobody monitors it as closely as you do.

You just said each little corner of the globe could be different. So I am reporting my experience here.

 

I totally agree with your statement... its the best model available.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A little damp this evening. Down to 42 with light rain. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

51/35 at SLE today. 

[Jesse]

A little damp this evening. Down to 42 with light rain.

The rest of the month AFTER THIS looking basically completely dry though.

[ShawniganLake]

Nice day

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The rest of the month AFTER THIS looking basically completely dry though.

 

For the most part. And no more than .2" so far with this. Almost losing ground in the race to the record.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Everybody wanna throw shade at the CFS, but it predicted December 2013 and now February 2019 months in advance. Just wait until 2025 and it'll make another great prediction.

[TacomaWaWx]

The rest of the month AFTER THIS looking basically completely dry though.

it’s rained a decent amount in WA and OR over the past couple weeks, good for the snowpack and the grass. Hopefully it doesn’t end up going into summer like conditions immediately after this pattern is over. Either way at this point we’re looking a lot better than a couple weeks ago, and should be good this summer.

[Phil]

Everybody wanna throw shade at the CFS, but it predicted December 2013 and now February 2019 months in advance. Just wait until 2025 and it'll make another great prediction.

I don’t know about 2013, but it had a western torch in February 2019 until it caught onto the SSW. None of those “predictions” were made 4+ months out.

 

A few lucky hits in a sea of failure isn’t even worth a sarcastic troll comment from me. I’m looking forward to the day the CFS is finally retired.

[TacomaWaWx]

Everybody wanna throw shade at the CFS, but it predicted December 2013 and now February 2019 months in advance. Just wait until 2025 and it'll make another great prediction.

There were some cold days in December 2013 in the beginning of the month. Tiny bit of snow fell not too much here.

[Jesse]

it’s rained a decent amount in WA and OR over the past couple weeks, good for the snowpack and the grass. Hopefully it doesn’t end up going into summer like conditions immediately after this pattern is over. Either way at this point we’re looking a lot better than a couple weeks ago, and should be good this summer.

We’re definitely in better shape than we were a few weeks ago. But the conditions in mid-April don’t tell us much about how this summer will be, as illustrated by last year.

[MossMan]

Finally all zero’s at the bottom right corner!

[El_Nina]

Finally all zero’s at the bottom right corner!

Funny how it's also 66.6° in your house as you say that.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z looks warm and dry!