April 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Is sounder a new iPhone weather app?

 

I think it is actually a pretentious ******* from the Seattle area who posts occasionally on here. 

[Timmy]

Can’t wait for some dry weather

[TacomaWaWx]

Models definitely trending towards a 2018-like solution #newnormal.

had a feeling it was going to go this way. Hopefully it doesn’t end up being very similar to last year in terms of the length of the dry season.

[TT-SEA]

had a feeling it was going to go this way. Hopefully it doesn’t end up being very similar to last year in terms of the length of the dry season.

 

 

Yep... its already happened.   The 2019 warm season is in the books!   

[Jesse]

Models definitely trending towards a 2018-like solution #newnormal.

You are trolling in all directions lately. That takes some flexibility! Those yoga classes must be doing wonders.

[Omegaraptor]

Is sounder a new iPhone weather app?

Go to Tropical Tidbits and click on the GFS map. Input your coords if necessary. That’s the sounder, it gives a forecast on temp and DP.

 

Washington County is pretty far south, I would be surprised if we didn’t break 70 on Thursday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You are trolling in all directions lately. That takes some flexibility! Those yoga classes must be doing wonders.

 

As usual just calling it like I see it. 

[Jesse]

Go to Tropical Tidbits and click on the GFS map. Input your coords if necessary. That’s the sounder, it gives a forecast on temp and DP.

 

Washington County is pretty far south, I would be surprised if we didn’t break 70 on Thursday.

MOS guidance shows 69 for PDX. It will be close.

[Jesse]

As usual just calling it like I see it.

PANIC BUTTON ACTIVATED

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Maybe some dry grass for a bit pls.

[Anti Marine Layer]

As I once heard, April showers bring May flowers, but too many bring Mayflowers

[TacomaWaWx]

Yep... its already happened. The 2019 warm season is in the books!

all I said was I hope it doesn’t go this way and hope that the model trends change....

[Phil]

As usual just calling it like I see it.

Take a break.

[Omegaraptor]

12z GFS shows another warm spell approaching 240 hours.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11.36" of rain so far on the month. 3rd wettest on record. I would say odds of hitting 12.80" and the new record have dropped below 50%.

[TT-SEA]

12z GFS shows another warm spell approaching 240 hours.

 

12Z ECMWF looks less troughy for next week.

 

Next Thursday on 12Z run yesterday...

 

 

 

And now on the new 12Z run...

 

[Jesse]

We’re f*cked.

[Timmy Supercell]

Models definitely trending towards a 2018-like solution #newnormal.

 

At least our winters are trending towards #oldnormal !

 

 

You are trolling in all directions lately. That takes some flexibility! Those yoga classes must be doing wonders.

 

   

[Front Ranger]

As usual just calling it like I see it.

You're using Tim's lines...good sign.

[Front Ranger]

We’re f*cked.

You're using Dewey's lines. Good sign.

[Timmy Supercell]

Nice day.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS is more troughy for next week... consistent with previous runs.  

 

No sign of warm ridging for the next 15 days.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS 10-15 day mean...

 

[Jesse]

We’re f*cked.

[Jesse]

I hope Andrew finds this soothing.

 

[Cloud]

I hope Andrew finds this soothing.

 

FF1FFC6B-F6FC-455C-9DEB-8AA607F8C656.png

That red member at the beginning of May though!

[Jesse]

That red member at the beginning of May though!

If the ensemble members were race cars that would be the one labeled “2018”.

[Phil]

[Jesse]

[Cloud]

If the ensemble members were race cars that would be the one labeled “2018”.

Not really interested in re-living May 2018. SEA literally went from one of the wettest April to zilch in May. 

 

But then again, my preference means nothing on what's actually going to happen. Ugh. 

[TacomaWaWx]

This is something I found interesting regarding snowfall in the region over the last 15 winters. Obviously this isn’t representative of the region as a whole because snowfall varies greatly from one place to another every winter. These are measurements for every winter imby in Tacoma the past 15 years.

04-05 X 09-10 X 14-15 X

05-06 X 10-11 11” 15-16 X

06-07 5” 11-12 9” 16-17 8”

07-08 7” 12-13 X 17-18 5”

08-09 18” 13-14 5” 18-19 23”

As you can see the trend over the last 15 years is 1-2 snowless winters and then 2-3 winters with snowfall. If this trend holds true, there won’t be any snow next year. Obviously again it’s not a prediction or anything just a trend I’ve seen that I thought was interesting and would be interesting if it was broken this upcoming winter. The winters with an X are obviously winters with 0” of snow or trace-1” which are practically non-events. The winters from 12-13 through 15-16 were pretty non eventful Imby. Even the snow events in 13-14 were very brief.

[Jesse]

Not really interested in re-living May 2018. SEA literally went from one of the wettest April to zilch in May. 

 

But then again, my preference means nothing on what's actually going to happen. Ugh. 

 

Best. Month. Ever.

[Timmy Supercell]

This is something I found interesting regarding snowfall in the region over the last 15 winters. Obviously this isn’t representative of the region as a whole because snowfall varies greatly from one place to another every winter. These are measurements for every winter imby in Tacoma the past 15 years.

04-05 X 09-10 X 14-15 X

05-06 X 10-11 11” 15-16 X

06-07 5” 11-12 9” 16-17 8”

07-08 7” 12-13 X 17-18 5”

08-09 18” 13-14 5” 18-19 23”

As you can see the trend over the last 15 years is 1-2 snowless winters and then 2-3 winters with snowfall. If this trend holds true, there won’t be any snow next year. Obviously again it’s not a prediction or anything just a trend I’ve seen that I thought was interesting and would be interesting if it was broken this upcoming winter. The winters with an X are obviously winters with 0” of snow or trace-1” which are practically non-events. The winters from 12-13 through 15-16 were pretty non eventful Imby. Even the snow events in 13-14 were very brief.

 

Going off my local trend I could have one more snowy winter and then taper off for a couple more. But who knows, a part of me is doubting anything like the '14/'15 droughts occurring anytime soon.

 

But I do live in a snowier climate comparatively; this could just mean a lesser than average winter or two, not necessarily a rock bottom scenario in my location.

[TacomaWaWx]

Going off my local trend I could have one more snowy winter and then taper off for a couple more. But who knows, a part of me is doubting anything like the '14/'15 droughts occurring anytime soon.

 

But I do live in a snowier climate comparatively; this could just mean a lesser than average winter or two, not necessarily a rock bottom scenario in my location.

I’m just curious to see what will happen regionally next year with snowfall since we’ve had good snowfall the last 3 years here in Tacoma. It’s just a trend that has happened where I live but obviously it doesn’t mean anything specific is going to happen. Its just a guess but because we had significant snow in many places this winter id guess it’s less likely it will be a lot of snow again next winter. Then again nobody really anticipated a snow event like February of this year so who knows.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I hope Andrew finds this soothing.

 

FF1FFC6B-F6FC-455C-9DEB-8AA607F8C656.png

 

The ensemble has been consistently average, but the operational has had other plans.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Like an Old Testament prophet I am being persecuted for speaking the truth. Woe to thee o'Pharisees. 

[Timmy Supercell]

I’m just curious to see what will happen regionally next year with snowfall since we’ve had good snowfall the last 3 years here in Tacoma. It’s just a trend that has happened where I live but obviously it doesn’t mean anything specific is going to happen. Its just a guess but because we had significant snow in many places this winter id guess it’s less likely it will be a lot of snow again next winter. Then again nobody really anticipated a snow event like February of this year so who knows.

 

My area actually does not get many anomalously snowy February's certainly not as many as Jan/Dec have seen. K-Falls had potentially the second snowiest Feb in the last 100+ years, if you look at my old station that ran from 1887-2001, only one was snowier than Feb 2019. Think nobody in this town could anticipate that one.

 

Many more examples of a Jan 2017 though. There have been at least a dozen similar January's over the decades.

[GHweatherChris]

Like an Old Testament prophet I am being persecuted for speaking the truth. Woe to thee o'Pharisees.

Tim... is that you?

[TacomaWaWx]

My area actually does not get many anomalously snowy February's certainly not as many as Jan/Dec have seen. K-Falls had potentially the second snowiest Feb in the last 100+ years, if you look at my old station that ran from 1887-2001, only one was snowier than Feb 2019. Think nobody in this town could anticipate that one.

 

Many more examples of a Jan 2017 though. There have been at least a dozen similar January's over the decades.

What’s been interesting here locally vs where you are in the last 15 years about half of the snow has fallen in February. Nov. 8” total Dec. 25” total Jan. 12.5” total Feb. 41.5” total. Of course 22 inches fell this February but still in recent years February has had the most snow here locally with snow in 2009 2011 2014 2017 2018 and 2019.

[Timmy Supercell]

What’s been interesting here locally vs where you are in the last 15 years about half of the snow has fallen in February. Nov. 8” total Dec. 25” total Jan. 12.5” total Feb. 41.5” total. Of course 22 inches fell this February but still in recent years February has had the most snow here locally with snow in 2009 2011 2014 2017 2018 and 2019.

 

Funny too since February still has a decent average... my months look like, Nov 4", Dec 10", Jan 12", Feb 9", Mar 3".. Not many 2+ feet totals in Feb but seemingly for a while every 8-10 years January would have a 30-36" total. 

 

1950's and before there were even more November snowstorms than February snowstorms. Of course now I think my November average has dropped since 1950. It used to average closer to Dec. Old school folks here can recall a lot of very snowy Thanksgiving's, but now they have a high likelihood of just either being dry/cold or maybe an inch on the ground.