May 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Hawkeye]

I just checked the HRRR and its runs have been very poor all night and continue to be poor.  It has had no grasp at all on this big line moving through.

 

 

So, if I am at work and a severe storm comes through... for my location, should I tell them my coordinates, my address, or what? 

 

For reporting, just tell them where you are.  It's easy for me because I'm 2 miles due west of downtown CR.

[Iowawx]

Line is closing in on Cedar Rapids. Kind of surprised there is no warning on it.

[james1976]

Rumbling thunder and constant rain up here. Nothing severe though. Really enjoying the sound of that thunder!

[Hawkeye]

Torrential rain with some good rumbles... although the wind isn't a big deal.  It's not going to last too long.

[East Dubzz]

Looks like the line is losing it's severe threat, which is fine. But it's going to result in some serious rainfall totals, it appears. 

 

I agree with the poor performance of the HRRR. It totally whiffed on the rain we got early this morning and doesn't appear to have a great grasp on the current line.

[Iowawx]

My rain gauge blew over as the storm moved in. Had some guests around 30-35mph. Not sure how much rain has fallen, but probably at least 0.5" if not more. That would bring my total so far to at least 1.53"

[Iowawx]

The Cedar River in Cedar Rapids is forecast to rise to 13.3 feet on Tuesday. My guess is that it could be higher and crest again higher than that with heavy rain expected into next week. Indications are that at least early June looks wet around here. 

[james1976]

Sun is coming out now

[Andie]

This is something else. What a roller coaster.

[Tom]

CFSv2 trending towards the idea of a dominant NW Flow pattern heading into June.  June Gloom???  The last 10 runs show a clear trend to park a trough right over the GL's/MW.  Pattern suppression is definitely in the cards back home.  Cooling Degree Demand will be quite low next month and I'm sure many will be saving on their electric bills this summer.  Always a silver lining...right???

[Iowawx]

CFSv2 trending towards the idea of a dominant NW Flow pattern heading into June.  June Gloom???  The last 10 runs show a clear trend to park a trough right over the GL's/MW.  Pattern suppression is definitely in the cards back home.  Cooling Degree Demand will be quite low next month and I'm sure many will be saving on their electric bills this summer.  Always a silver lining...right???

 

Tom, does that signal a continued wet pattern for Iowa? Models do look active in the extended, into early June. 

[Hawkeye]

My rain total today is 1.59".  I received 0.80" overnight and 0.79" this morning.

 

My garden needs warm and dry.  It seems like that combo will be rare this spring/summer.

[East Dubzz]

Can't check my rain gauge, obviously, but I'm very interest to see how much rain fell. Had to be at least an additional half an inch, at least. Guessing upwards of 0.75", but I will have to wait to see on that one. That said, I'll be over an inch of rain since ~2:30 this morning, which is more than I expected. Wonder if we'll add any more tonight.

[james1976]

Hopefully this cool/wet pattern doesnt mean a warm/dry winter. This type of pattern cant last forever.

[Tom]

Tom, does that signal a continued wet pattern for Iowa? Models do look active in the extended, into early June.

My best judgement ATM is from IA/IL on north will see drier conditions heading into June.

[Stormhunter87]

Watching another possible tornado moving toward my family in IL. Coupling looks south but the warning is knocking on their door.

[OKwx2k4]

Well, it looked like it was getting dryer.....

 

Nope. Not this time.

[Money]

Watching another possible tornado moving toward my family in IL. Coupling looks south but the warning is knocking on their door.

Looks like a tornado has been observed with this now

[Iowawx]

Based on radar estimates, I am going with 1.75" for my total so far today. I will put rain gauge back up so it can record the rainfall from storms later today and tonight.

 

The sun is out here, but some clouds are still hanging around. Temperature has warmed up to 68. If we can keep warming up and continue with the sunshine for the afternoon, then we should be able to get some storms developing around here later this afternoon. SPC still has us in slight risk. 

 

My rainfall total for the month of May so far is 6.12"

[East Dubzz]

Sun is fully shining now. Temp has jumped about 10 degrees over the past 2 hours.

[james1976]

Another 0.67" from this morning's round. That makes 2.18" total from last night and this morning. Basement is wet for the 2nd time this spring. Fields and ditches have some standing water now too.

[Iowawx]

We have warmed up to 75 and the dew point is now 68. It feels humid outside. Looks like we do have some instability for storms to form here later today. 

[Money]

NW IL/SW WI and NE IA under the gun this aft

 

Def threat for tornadoes

[BMT]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0772.html

[East Dubzz]

We have warmed up to 75 and the dew point is now 68. It feels humid outside. Looks like we do have some instability for storms to form here later today. 

 

I am not very knowledgeable on the severe side of things, but I can definitely confirm that it feels quite humid outside. I'm guessing this won't hurt our chances of storms  

[East Dubzz]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0772.html

 

Fingers crossed that I get my first severe storm of the year! ... but I will pass on the tornado part of it. Luckily, I'm in an area that is basically impossible to have one. Hoping it's not an issue for anyone, though.

[Iowawx]

I don't want a tornado but it would be nice to see a shelf cloud or just a nice looking supercell. SPC has 60% chance of watch for Eastern Iowa. 

[East Dubzz]

I don't want a tornado but it would be nice to see a shelf cloud or just a nice looking supercell. SPC has 60% chance of watch for Eastern Iowa. 

 

True. I am realllly craving a nice storm. Like, at least a "strong" storm. 

[Iowawx]

Based on conditions, would SPC be more likely to issue a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch for Iowa? 

[Hawkeye]

Something is trying to pop sw of Cedar Rapids.

[Stormy]

Something is trying to pop sw of Cedar Rapids.

That could be the beginning of things.

 

I guess I should mention that the last round of storms this morning only dropped 0.40" of rain here. The storms weren't even strong enough to cause a wind shift to the west, but there were nice cracks of thunder. My total was 1.18".

Right now It's around 80° with a dew of 71° or so. Plenty of low level instability I would think.

[Hawkeye]

First 70 dew of the year.

[Stormy]

Here's one time that we had a "high risk ". Maybe the last time for my area?

[Hawkeye]

The cells are struggling to do anything so far.  We may have to wait until the LLJ kicks in a bit.

[Stormy]

 

A nice surfaced based low hanging updraft or wall cloud just to my west. Cracks of thunder. My phone just alerted me to a tornado warning! None that I see yet

[Stormy]

Definitely a supercell!

[Money]

TW storm heading right towards Iowa City with a nice hook developing

[Hawkeye]

KGAN has a strong tornado live on air track northeast toward the Iowa City area.

[Bryan1117]

Live webcam from the University of Iowa campus showing the tornado in clear view in the distance!!! This could be a nightmare situation for Iowa City... 

 

http://webcam.iowa.uiowa.edu/live/view.htm

 

Prayers for everyone in this storm's path. 

[Hawkeye]

It seems to have lifted somewhat for now, although the wall cloud is rotating rapidly.