May 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Jaycee]

This is a crazy setup. Haven’t seen them issue a 45% hatched risk for tornadoes ever I don’t think.

 

 

[james1976]

Had the furnace on last night and this morning. May 20th

[Stormhunter87]

They are talking PDS t watch. Interesting.

[SE Wisconsin]

Is it just me or has anyone else noticed that when the weather turns nasty and the demand for timely information is high, it seems as though any website related to NOAA takes forever to download?

[Stormhunter87]

Is it just me or has anyone else noticed that when the weather turns nasty and the demand for timely information is high, it seems as though any website related to NOAA takes forever to download?

Alot of their resources go to the event. My dad works on the goes project and major events get the resources.

[OKwx2k4]

I read somewhere the jet stream is about as strong as you see it during the winter season, let alone in late May, probably a record strength jet stream today/tomorrow.

 

@ Okwx, stay safe down there bud...

Thank you. Keeping my eyes peeled.

[Tom]

The vigorous ULL is spinning nearly over head as this unusually strong storm system begins to traverse the region...thunderstorms are flaring up in the high country as we speak.

 

[james1976]

That's quite the rain shield heading up from KS.

[East Dubzz]

GFS is showing 0.50" here tomorrow, while the NAM is showing about 2"... Hmm, anyone got a map for what the Euro is showing?

[jcwxguy]

Haven't seen >95% in a while, 2011

[Hawkeye]

Tomorrow's rain event is trending less heavy.  The WPC has my area down to 0.50-0.75".  The best rain late tonight should pass south and then late Tuesday it'll just be a quick-moving line passing through the area.  The WPC has our next heavy rain event not until late weekend into early next week.

[Hawkeye]

GFS is showing 0.50" here tomorrow, while the NAM is showing about 2"... Hmm, anyone got a map for what the Euro is showing?

 

The euro is trending down.

 

[Andie]

The lake that I live 1/2 mi from is about to go over the Spillway blocking a road my husband and I use a lot.

It’s been one seriously wet spring and not over yet. Summer may get very interesting here.

 

 

[BMT]

The euro is trending down.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019052012_48_513_220.png

Good

[Minny_Weather]

The euro is trending down.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019052012_48_513_220.png

Figured it was gonna. We have had quite a bit of rain this Spring but it normally hasn't come all at once. Wouldn't be the first time this year models were showing insane amounts then trended way down to more normal amounts.

[Tom]

Ag Update through the 19th:

 

 

 

U.S. planting progress, May 19:
#Corn 49% (SLOWEST in records back to 1980; 5yr avg 80%; last wk 30%)
#Soybeans 19% (slowest since 1996; 5yr avg 47%; last wk 9%) Spring
#wheat 70% (5yr avg 80%; last wk 45%)
#plant19

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

Still nothing planted here, though I do see the fields being sprayed. This wet week ahead won't help.

[OKwx2k4]

No real "summer" or late spring warmth in sight, in spite of above average days here and there. Hard to get that with this much rainfall.

Going to feel like the shortest summer of my lifetime, probably. I'm still going to stand on that. Someone mentioned in this thread or another that our atmosphere is in a pattern that resembles March and not May. This is largely true. Many professionals have backed this. Interesting weather year so far.

[OKwx2k4]

Another sign in the GFS map above that favors my thoughts for a short summer in the central US is that the only dry spot on the map is south of the western US and, in my opinion, that ridge will only grow "taller" to include the intermountain west for times in the early summer period before migrating westward in later summer.

 

If this were to occur, it would be highly unusual but seems more likely every day. We would skip the worst part of summer in the central CONUS.

[Stormhunter87]

So this outbreak not as intense as forecasted. Definitely some tornadoes but nothing like what I was thinking. Oh and no rain really pushing up here. Still going for rain all day tomorrow but who knows at this point.

[Bryan1117]

So this outbreak not as intense as forecasted. Definitely some tornadoes but nothing like what I was thinking. Oh and no rain really pushing up here. Still going for rain all day tomorrow but who knows at this point.

Yeah Oklahoma and Texas really appeared to dodge a bullet today, it seems that everything was coming together, and while there were some tornadoes, things really did not pan out for a high risk from the SPC. 

 

And not surprised that we did not see any rain today and this evening, I think all the action to the south pulled the energy away from the northern fringe. I had a feeling that the 5-8 inch rain totals that were being spit out by the models last week would be WAY off, however we really seem to be getting the short end of the stick lately when it comes to rainfall and storms. Not going to complain, as less precipitation helps the farmers out and keeps the risk of major flooding in Eastern Nebraska away.  

[OKwx2k4]

Still a pretty live situation down here. Going to be a light sleeping night. Rapid development year over my area this year.

I feel like this is the 3rd or 4th time to post one of these this year.

[OKwx2k4]

Andie, rough night still to come.

[OKwx2k4]

Leach, Oklahoma is reported to be leveled by an F-4 or F-5 nighttime tornado.

Not good.

[OKwx2k4]

[OKwx2k4]

Probably one of the most perfect tornadoes on radar ever depicted over eastern Oklahoma. Unspeakable tragedy.

[Stormhunter87]

That is an impressive hook echo and very odd where it developed. Trying to find info on Leach. Alot of people saying it was destroyed but I can't find any official reports. NOAA storm reports has nothing either.

[Stormhunter87]

Okay now there is storm report on it. Wow hopefully my words are not a curse. But again definitely dodged a bullet overall based on potential for a wide spread event.

[Bryan1117]

Probably one of the most perfect tornadoes on radar ever depicted over eastern Oklahoma. Unspeakable tragedy.

Yeah I spoke too soon. That radar shot just gives you the chills.

[Madtown]

Another high near 50 day. Honey locust trees still have no leaves here...this is crazy.

[james1976]

Wind advisory today with windy wet and cool conditions later today into tonight. DMX said we will only be a few degrees off from record cold highs.

[westMJim]

I had a low here at my house of 38. The official low for Grand Rapids looks to have been 39.

[Andie]

Andie, rough night still to come.

I was more worried about you up there friend.

This is a return of the Oklahoma tornado pattern I recall as a child. It always frightened me.

Ponca City, Okla. received 6.75" of rain.

Our lake is at capacity and about to go over the spillway. Very rare.

 

I was thinking of you and hoping you, your family, and property were fairing well through this.

I've been lucky. Just a lot of rain.

 

We received and inch or so far this morning, but there's still some to the west of us.

 

This brings me to a future post, maybe 3 yrs in the future.

We will be likely moving closer to family on the Red River near Denison, Tx after my husband retires. As we will build, we will construct a safe room within the house, just for storms like this which I believe may be more common in the future. My brother in law is altering a master bath into one this year.

 

Weather is changing in the Southern Plains. Question is....how long will this trend last? Years?

 

What is the word on Leach, Oklahoma?

[Niko]

Blustery and cold conditions here in SEMI as lows dipped into the 30s last night. Highs yesterday remained in the 40s as well. Well BN.No records were broken though.

[Niko]

I was more worried about you up there friend.

This is a return of the Oklahoma tornado pattern I recall as a child. It always frightened me.

Ponca City, Okla. received 6.75" of rain.

Our lake is at capacity and about to go over the spillway. Very rare.

 

I was thinking of you and hoping you, your family, and property were fairing well through this.

I've been lucky. Just a lot of rain.

 

We received and inch or so far this morning, but there's still some to the west of us.

 

This brings me to a future post, maybe 3 yrs in the future.

We will be likely moving closer to family on the Red River near Denison, Tx after my husband retires. As we will build, we will construct a safe room within the house, just for storms like this which I believe may be more common in the future. My brother in law is altering a master bath into one this year.

 

Weather is changing in the Southern Plains. Question is....how long will this trend last? Years?

 

What is the word on Leach, Oklahoma?

Good Luck down there!

[Niko]

Temps currently are at 52F w a blend of sunshine n clouds. Highs will most likely remain in the upper 50s. Nice, brief warm-up coming for Thursday (80s), b4 it cools back down again.

[OKwx2k4]

Not finding much info on it this morning. I hate our news and NWS down here sometimes. I'll keep checking.

[Tom]

It's been the coolest morning thus far here in the hills outside of the valley where it dipped to 51F.  Yesterday was an interesting day across the state of Arizona as it snowed in the town of Flagstaff and a rare tornado was sited north of town: https://www.azfamily.com/news/small-tornado-touches-down-north-of-flagstaff/article_ca65f58a-7b2f-11e9-8768-6fbd0ac58e7d.html

 

I had a brief thundershower but nothing to crazy.  The only crazy thing about the weather here is how cool its been this month.  Tomorrows highs are only expected to be in the low 70's!  Unbelievable.  I've never experienced a May like this ever since I've been coming down here and the locals say its been quite a rare month.

[Hawkeye]

Very little rain got up here overnight.  All the heavy storms kept everything south.  We should get a half inch later today as the main band swings through.  It sure is a rotten day.... 40s, damp, and windy.

[Iowawx]

Only 0.02" of rain so far today. Main band looks to move in later today, and should give us about a half inch or so. Driving this morning to work and having the heat on in my car on May 21 is pretty depressing.

 

I don't mind this wet and stormy pattern, and I hope it continues, but it sure would be nice to get the temperatures closer to normal. WPC 8-14 day outlook has above normal precipitation and below normal temperatures for Iowa.