June 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[TacomaWaWx]

Currently 68 and mostly sunny. Should make the low 70s this afternoon. Nice day tomorrow too it apppears. Hopefully we luck out and get some rainfall Monday and Tuesday.

[TT-SEA]

The 12z EURO gets hot for the long July 4th weekend.

 

 

Here are the highs it's showing for PDX starting on July 4th.

 

7/4: 82

7/5: 85

7/6: 91

7/7: 93

7/8: 87

Summer starts on 7/4 now??

[Omegaraptor]

Summer starts on 7/4 now??

Pretty sure it’s actually more likely to rain east of the Cascades than lowland locations west of the Cascades on the Fourth of July thanks to increased convective activity in Eastern OR/WA.

 

EDIT: It isn't, particularly in the Basin. Portland and Bend have roughly equal chances of significant rain on the fourth (0.1" or more). The Columbia Basin has lower chances than either of them.

[TT-SEA]

77 at SEA today.   Also 77 at RNT and 77 at BFI.    Complete uniformity under a deep trough.

 

76 in North Bend.

 

ECMWF showed a high of 71 at SEA today so it was 6 degrees too cool.    It shows 77 on the 4th.   80 seems like a good bet if it has the 500mb pattern correct.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Lets do a poll. Who thinks Im a virgin?

[BLI snowman]

Rainless July at least looking unlikely with Monday now looking more wet.

[MossMan]

Today has been perfection weather wise. Even the deer think so.

[TT-SEA]

Today has been perfection weather wise. Even the deer think so.

 

 

That is cute... but you really can't discern the deer's opinion on the weather.  

[jcmcgaffey]

At a wedding east of bend and about to get pummeled by a good thunderstorm

[jcmcgaffey]

Here

[Guest CulverJosh]

At a wedding east of bend and about to get pummeled by a good thunderstorm

Ya man. Hope that holds together up here in Culver. Missed everything the last 3 days to the west. Now on the eastern fringes of this one. Lol.

[MossMan]

Today has been perfection weather wise. Even the deer think so.

The deer had a twinkle in its eye when I yelled “Nice Day Huh” at it so I know for a fact it was enjoying the weather!

[Timmy]

Ya man. Hope that holds together up here in Culver. Missed everything the last 3 days to the west. Now on the eastern fringes of this one. Lol.

wait, aren’t you in mt Scott?

[Guest CulverJosh]

At a wedding east of bend and about to get pummeled by a good thunderstorm

Ya man. Hope that holds together up here in Culver. Missed everything the last 3 days to the west. Now on the eastern fringes of this one. Lol.

[MossMan]

Lets do a poll. Who thinks Im a virgin?

Don’t you have like 6 or 7 kids?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Don’t you have like 6 or 7 kids?

With 6 or 7 different ladies. He can’t remember.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I like that troughy trendline toward mid July. 

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS much cooler for the 4th and actually for the entire weekend.

 

Small changes in the placement of those weak 500mb features makes a huge difference in tangible weather.    It worked in favor of warmth this weekend... might be the opposite next weekend.

[jcmcgaffey]

Here’s another pic I got with some interesting clouds that had some circulation and lightning strikes coming out.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF takes away the rain around Portland on Monday... but still shows some rain from Seattle northward on Tuesday.

 

Its about the same as the 12Z run for the 4th... mostly sunny and probably around 80 in Seattle.

 

Friday does not look as warm as previous runs though.

[TT-SEA]

No heat wave on the 00Z ECMWF... just several days in the 75-80 range up here and low 80s down south.

[Timmy Supercell]

Here’s another pic I got with some interesting clouds that had some circulation and lightning strikes coming out.

 

That is some really good structure!

[SeattleSnow]

Is it going to snow this winter?

[snow maniac]

Summer starts on 7/4 now??

Yuck, I’m enjoying the nice 70s.

[TT-SEA]

Yuck, I’m enjoying the nice 70s.

 

 

Average high in the summer is in the mid to upper 70s.

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS... 

 

5-10 day mean:

 

 

 

10-15 day mean:

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is warmer and less troughy on the 4th compared to its 00Z run.    Hopefully the trend in the home stretch is similar to this weekend which is warmer and sunnier than it appeared 3-4 days ago.

[Dave]

In Disgusta, Ga at the moment. What a shithole. Temp is 88, but feels like 93. Blech. Looks like I'll probably get totally boned on tstorms the next few days, but I saw some sweet ones on the plane.

[Front Ranger]

Average high in the summer is in the mid to upper 70s.

If you're only including the 8 warmest weeks. As we've often discussed, summer in the PNW runs from sometime in June to sometime in September.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

In Disgusta, Ga at the moment. What a shithole. Temp is 88, but feels like 93. Blech. Looks like I'll probably get totally boned on tstorms the next few days, but I saw some sweet ones on the plane.

I’m sorry. The SE this time of year is no bueno for weather. Hopefully it gets a fat ridge over it this winter tho, just like 150W too.

[TacomaWaWx]

Almost time to start the July Discussion. June is practically in the books we ran a 70/51 average for the month with 0.17” of rain in Tacoma. 1 90+ day and 1 80+ day. 2019 is officially the 2nd driest June I’ve recorded right behind 2015 with 0.13” that year. This is also the driest first 6 months of a year I’ve recorded with 12.32” total since January 1st, beating the previous record of 14.95” in 2008.

[Dave]

The bugs here are insane. The cicadas are about 3x as loud as the ones in Oregon and they chirp 24 hours a day. At night it sounds like a jungle. At least I saw a bunch of fireflies.

[Timmy Supercell]

The bugs here are insane. The cicadas are about 3x as loud as the ones in Oregon and they chirp 24 hours a day. At night it sounds like a jungle. At least I saw a bunch of fireflies.

 

Still have some cicadas in Klamath but I think it's noticeably fewer than a couple years ago. 

 

Yeah the ones here just do a light high pitched buzz sound. According to folks in the midwest these bugs are a problem? 

[Phil]

In Disgusta, Ga at the moment. What a shithole. Temp is 88, but feels like 93. Blech. Looks like I'll probably get totally boned on tstorms the next few days, but I saw some sweet ones on the plane.

And that’s a “nice” day compared to many if not most.

 

Would be a -1 departure here in July.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF still showing a decent rain even on Tuesday into Tuesday night...

 

[Phil]

The bugs here are insane. The cicadas are about 3x as loud as the ones in Oregon and they chirp 24 hours a day. At night it sounds like a jungle. At least I saw a bunch of fireflies.

They’ve emerged here too. It’s insanely loud especially when the sun is shining.

 

FWIW you’re probably hearing katydids as well during the overnight hours. For now it’s a chorus of five species during the day....“scissor grinder” cicada, dog day cicada, “swamp” cicada, Lynne’s cicada, and Robinson’s cicada. There are two more species that emerge later in July.

 

These are the “annual” cicadas, btw (they emerge every year). The periodical cicadas emerge every 13 or 17yrs depending on the brood. There are ~ 15 periodical broods scattered about.

[GHweatherChris]

Phil's cicadas are bigger than yours.

[Phil]

Phil's cicadas are bigger than yours.

Go away, insect.

 

I’m just providing data. If you think I’m being hyperbolic, here’s a video of a periodical emergence (brood x, in this case). It’s insanely annoying, even disorienting. People can actually go crazy.

 

[GHweatherChris]

Lol

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF still shows mostly sunny skies on the 4th and around 77 or 78 in the Seattle area and 80 in Portland.   That means probably 80 in Seattle and 83 in Portland.

 

Its shows 75 for today in Seattle and its already in the low 70s across the entire Seattle area... so the 4th will probably be similar to today but just a little warmer.