Niko Posted October 2, 2019 Report Share Posted October 2, 2019 WxBell suggesting the Toledo/Detroit magnet... 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 2, 2019 Report Share Posted October 2, 2019 WxBell suggesting the Toledo/Detroit magnet...Considering every winter here since 2013-14 has been absolutely awful, we're due here. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 2, 2019 Report Share Posted October 2, 2019 Considering every winter here since 2013-14 has been absolutely awful, we're due here. Looking into local climo, eh? Hey, even the DET Lions..well, never mind that. While 14-15 wasn't a great snow total season, at least Detroit & Toledo got in on the big dog. That in itself was a rare win for both locales. Both cities need "overwhelming cold" to score well in the snow dept. 2013-14 was the latest and best example of that. SO, if we roll that way in the temps dept, things could shine over there and satisfy your call. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 2, 2019 Report Share Posted October 2, 2019 Looking into local climo, eh? Hey, even the DET Lions..well, never mind that. While 14-15 wasn't a great snow total season, at least Detroit & Toledo got in on the big dog. That in itself was a rare win for both locales. Both cities need "overwhelming cold" to score well in the snow dept. 2013-14 was the latest and best example of that. SO, if we roll that way in the temps dept, things could shine over there and satisfy your call. Toledo has no issue getting a big dog or two a year. It's everything else that's lacking. Last year, one storm was responsible for half of the season total. It wasn't the most impressive storm in the world either. The big vortex was right after it though so it at least stayed on the ground for a while. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 2, 2019 Report Share Posted October 2, 2019 WxBell suggesting the Toledo/Detroit magnet... Would love to see them double-down with their next update. While I found that Joe D. article that reviewed the SSTA drivers of 13-14 which included their temps call, I still have yet to find their snowfall forecast map(s). In that article it mentions how they were beating a drum for the GL's to see an historic season but they failed to include their map call. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 2, 2019 Report Share Posted October 2, 2019 Toledo has no issue getting a big dog or two a year. It's everything else that's lacking. Last year, one storm was responsible for half of the season total. It wasn't the most impressive storm in the world either. The big vortex was right after it though so it at least stayed on the ground for a while. I guess it depends on one's threshold for a BD, but I'm certain climo would not support that statement. 1 or 2 storms a season, maybe. As for this coming season, hopefully these early prognosticators are correct and your (our) region scores well and even maybe has a memorable one over there cementing my hunch that you picked a great time to "hang your hat" around KTOL. What are some of the better winters in say the past (2) decades. Here's my guess by memory alone: 98-99, 00-01, 02-03, 04-05, 07-08, 08-09, 13-14 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 2, 2019 Report Share Posted October 2, 2019 Story is the same every year. The snow and cold is hyped up, and everyone is buzzing about how this is gonna be THE winter where everyone scores AA snowfall. Get back to me when the flakes are flying . Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 2, 2019 Report Share Posted October 2, 2019 Story is the same every year. The snow and cold is hyped up, and everyone is buzzing about how this is gonna be THE winter where everyone scores AA snowfall. Get back to me when the flakes are flying . The excitement for the possibilities are often more fun then the outcome itself, agreed. This holds true for many things in life tho 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 2, 2019 Report Share Posted October 2, 2019 I guess it depends on one's threshold for a BD, but I'm certain climo would not support that statement. 1 or 2 storms a season, maybe. As for this coming season, hopefully these early prognosticators are correct and your (our) region scores well and even maybe has a memorable one over there cementing my hunch that you picked a great time to "hang your hat" around KTOL. What are some of the better winters in say the past (2) decades. Here's my guess by memory alone: 98-99, 00-01, 02-03, 04-05, 07-08, 08-09, 13-14My definition of a big dog is WSW level stuff. You gotta consider where I came from. Toledo averages ~35" a year. We also get little to no LES here. That has to come from somewhere. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted October 2, 2019 Report Share Posted October 2, 2019 I'm still of the mindset that this ridge cannot last forever. I think central and SW tx rainfall will pick up if we see a southwesterly flow this winter. Right now I'd say you'll finish fall increasing in rainfall and see a wet winter. These patterns have a tendency to snap rather quickly even if it does seem like its wearing on our patience down here.Can I quote you on that? We really need it. 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 2, 2019 Report Share Posted October 2, 2019 Can I quote you on that? We really need it.Considering that this is over the next 84 hours and it's a start, yeah, you can. I think the pattern coming up over the next 10 days has some merit to it for the first time since Aug 28th. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted October 3, 2019 Report Share Posted October 3, 2019 Well, ants trying to come in. Must be a sign. 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 3, 2019 Report Share Posted October 3, 2019 My definition of a big dog is WSW level stuff. You gotta consider where I came from. Toledo averages ~35" a year. We also get little to no LES here. That has to come from somewhere. Is CLE same as GRR in that regard? A Big Dog to me is 15+ and that doesn't happen too often tbh. At least outside of the LES enhanced region. I remember many Warnings handed out with 4-8 or 5-9 in the verbiage. With improved forecast accuracy, more capable vehicles, etc I don't see that happening these days. Mostly we get advisories for 6"in 12 hrs (even tho that's still the official threshold for a warning). They need high confidence in 8+ to pull the warning trigger at GRR. IWX still follows the traditional guidelines tho. Often a better gauge of what to expect around my place wrt impacts. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 3, 2019 Report Share Posted October 3, 2019 From what I am seeing and reading, snowfall will be above normal for many locales this upcoming Winter in the Midwest and NE. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 3, 2019 Report Share Posted October 3, 2019 Is CLE same as GRR in that regard? A Big Dog to me is 15+ and that doesn't happen too often tbh. At least outside of the LES enhanced region. I remember many Warnings handed out with 4-8 or 5-9 in the verbiage. With improved forecast accuracy, more capable vehicles, etc I don't see that happening these days. Mostly we get advisories for 6"in 12 hrs (even tho that's still the official threshold for a warning). They need high confidence in 8+ to pull the warning trigger at GRR. IWX still follows the traditional guidelines tho. Often a better gauge of what to expect around my place wrt impacts.From what I've seen, CLE is easier on the non-snowbelt areas (aka here) than places such as Cleveland or Erie when it comes to WSWs. I only have one storm last year to base that off of, though. I've seen OAX issue warnings with 4-6" verbiage. It depends on the office I guess. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted October 3, 2019 Report Share Posted October 3, 2019 Toledo has no issue getting a big dog or two a year. It's everything else that's lacking. Last year, one storm was responsible for half of the season total. It wasn't the most impressive storm in the world either. The big vortex was right after it though so it at least stayed on the ground for a while.For Toledo the average snow fall is around 35.0” but note there is a lot of missing snow fall data. The most snow in a season for Toledo is 86.3” in 2013/14 in 2nd place is 73.1” in 1977/78. The most snow in one month is 40.2” in January of 2014. To your east at Cleveland the average snow fall amount is 52.0” the most in one season there is 117.9” in 2004/05. The most for any one month is 42.8” in January of 1978 with 40.9” in January of 2009 in 2nd place. For Jaster the nearest ot his home town that keeps records in Kalamazoo and the average there is 64.6” (note they also have many missing years of data) the most in a season at Kazoo is 122.2” in 1966/67 the most in any month is 54.0” in January of 2003. And here where I live in Grand Rapids the average is 75.0” the most for any season is 132.0” in 1951/52 the most in any one moth is 59.0” in December 2000As for the so called :Big Dog" I would agree with Jaster that 15" would be one but I would think that 12" would be a starting point. And both a 12 and 15" storms are rare. BTW Toledo can get lake enhanced snow with a NE wind.And yes WSW and depend on the location and to some degree the time of year 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 3, 2019 Report Share Posted October 3, 2019 All I can say is look at that low anchored over the Aleutians. If that verifies, November will be amazing. Bank on it. Warmth will be hard to come by after November 7 in the lower 48. What a change! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 3, 2019 Report Share Posted October 3, 2019 All I can say is look at that low anchored over the Aleutians. If that verifies, November will be amazing. Bank on it. Warmth will be hard to come by after November 7 in the lower 48. What a change!gfs_z500a_nhem_49.pngThat would be a better scenario than the past two Falls. I felt like we got troughed too soon, therefore getting us ridged by December when temps on average get cold. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 3, 2019 Report Share Posted October 3, 2019 That would be a better scenario than the past two Falls. I felt like we got troughed too soon, therefore getting us ridged by December when temps on average get cold.Exactly, that is why I prefer normal temps in November, if not slightly above. Save the good stuff for December and so on when averages are a lot colder. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 3, 2019 Report Share Posted October 3, 2019 Exactly, that is why I prefer normal temps in November, if not slightly above. Save the good stuff for December and so on when averages are a lot colder.November is a good time for the cold to come in imo. I'm moreso talking about brutal cold in October. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 3, 2019 Report Share Posted October 3, 2019 November is a good time for the cold to come in imo. I'm moreso talking about brutal cold in October. Forget about October. Total useless for any cold. Even November, although, it does have a low sun angle, which helps, I still believe that any cold in November harms December and sometimes January and etc. Like I said, save the cold for December. Tbh, I would not mind at all for the cold to start arriving around Thanksgiving week and continuing into December. Not earlier than that though. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 3, 2019 Report Share Posted October 3, 2019 Forget about October. Total useless for any cold. Even November, although, it does have a low sun angle, which helps, I still believe that any cold in November harms December and sometimes January and etc. Like I said, save the cold for December. Tbh, I would not mind at all for the cold to start arriving around Thanksgiving week and continuing into December. Not earlier than that though.See I'm an early bird when it comes to Winter, so I'd much rather have cold in November than the same level of cold in March or even late February. Although I do understand seasonal lag is a bigger factor here than it is out in the Plains due to the lakes. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 3, 2019 Report Share Posted October 3, 2019 For Toledo the average snow fall is around 35.0” but note there is a lot of missing snow fall data. The most snow in a season for Toledo is 86.3” in 2013/14 in 2nd place is 73.1” in 1977/78. The most snow in one month is 40.2” in January of 2014. To your east at Cleveland the average snow fall amount is 52.0” the most in one season there is 117.9” in 2004/05. The most for any one month is 42.8” in January of 1978 with 40.9” in January of 2009 in 2nd place. For Jaster the nearest ot his home town that keeps records in Kalamazoo and the average there is 64.6” (note they also have many missing years of data) the most in a season at Kazoo is 122.2” in 1966/67 the most in any month is 54.0” in January of 2003. And here where I live in Grand Rapids the average is 75.0” the most for any season is 132.0” in 1951/52 the most in any one moth is 59.0” in December 2000As for the so called :Big Dog" I would agree with Jaster that 15" would be one but I would think that 12" would be a starting point. And both a 12 and 15" storms are rare. BTW Toledo can get lake enhanced snow with a NE wind.And yes WSW and depend on the location and to some degree the time of year Not true amigo. Battle Creek is only 12 miles versus about 30+ to Kzoo. BC has comprehensive data from 1894 to present. Thru 1971 was at the (Kellogg) airport, switched to BC5NW after that. Otherwise, loved the post! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 3, 2019 Report Share Posted October 3, 2019 I'm with TOL. Not wanting the cold per se in October, but I'm all for having a good solid cold last week of November to get winter going by December. Let's see how this one plays out. I'm intrigued to say the least... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 4, 2019 Report Share Posted October 4, 2019 See I'm an early bird when it comes to Winter, so I'd much rather have cold in November than the same level of cold in March or even late February. Although I do understand seasonal lag is a bigger factor here than it is out in the Plains due to the lakes.Not talking about November vs March. I am just stating when its best to have the real cold come in. Moving on here, next. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 4, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2019 "Where Legends Are Made"...this is the thought that popped into my mind this morning. I think the Universe is trying to say something...sometimes we have to listen to our intuition and believe in ourselves to commit to an idea. As I sip on my coffee this morning, I'm struck by the data that keeps pouring in which is literally lining up each and every important variable I look for this upcoming Winter season. I know its still early in the game and the LRC has not formed yet, but I can already envision what it is going to look like. For instance, way back in late Summer I had the idea we may be seeing a dominant northern stream and what are called "inside runners". Well, it certainly looks like the pattern is opening up that way with next weeks storm system. This is only one part of the new pattern and not the only exhibit. I do believe there will be drier periods and/or Clipper type patterns coming off of a dominating NW Flow in this year's LRC. In any event, the latest QBO reading is descending from last months reading (+9.97) and registered a September reading of (+8.25). I see this as a positive signal for cold not warmth. As for the behavior of the Strat, there is something really intriguing ongoing and truly setting the stage for a sensational start to the cold season. Clearly, none of the models were predicting a cold start to October, but if you looked for the clues in the Strat (and I've shown it many times on here) it can provide an advanced way to predict 2-3 weeks out into the future. I'll show you what I'm seeing.... Ever wonder why western Russia has been so darn cold??? You can clearly see why at 30mb and where that warm pool has been building and growing in western Russia. Where does it go from here??? First off, I like to use the GEFS 10mb Strat forecasts and they look quite interesting. By the 12th, the warming shifts over eastern Russia/Siberia... By the 20th, yes, I know, its a long range forecast but I believe in the way this is going...its suggesting this picture....look towards the Aleutians and see the "blues" (this is a signal for a deep trough in this time frame). The PV also seems to be a bit displaced as well. This weak warming event across Eurasia is forecast to track east towards Siberia and influence/perturb the Polar Vortex into Week 2. Notice the warming in the final frames across western North America. This is a Big signal to look for the Ridge to blossom over western NAMER by mid/late October. Not only that, but what is really fascinating is the trending Aleutian Low to blow up by mid month which will in all likelihood amplify the pattern mid/late October. If this isn't getting you excited as a winter wx enthusiast, I'm not sure what will. I'm getting goose bumps as I write this bc this may be the season...."Where Legends Are Made".... I'll end this post with this pretty map....Nov 18th time stamp... 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 4, 2019 Report Share Posted October 4, 2019 As an enthusiast, this is almost too beautiful for words. The upcoming transition/crash, is something that only happens a couple of times in history. Enjoy it folks. It's going to be pretty spectacular. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted October 4, 2019 Report Share Posted October 4, 2019 "Where Legends Are Made"...this is the thought that popped into my mind this morning. I think the Universe is trying to say something...sometimes we have to listen to our intuition and believe in ourselves to commit to an idea. As I sip on my coffee this morning, I'm struck by the data that keeps pouring in which is literally lining up each and every important variable I look for this upcoming Winter season. I know its still early in the game and the LRC has not formed yet, but I can already envision what it is going to look like. For instance, way back in late Summer I had the idea we may be seeing a dominant northern stream and what are called "inside runners". Well, it certainly looks like the pattern is opening up that way with next weeks storm system. This is only one part of the new pattern and not the only exhibit. I do believe there will be drier periods and/or Clipper type patterns coming off of a dominating NW Flow in this year's LRC. This weak warming event across Eurasia is forecast to track east towards Siberia and influence/perturb the Polar Vortex into Week 2. Notice the warming in the final frames across western North America. This is a Big signal to look for the Ridge to blossom over western NAMER by mid/late October. Not only that, but what is really fascinating is the trending Aleutian Low to blow up by mid month which will in all likelihood amplify the pattern mid/late October. If this isn't getting you excited as a winter wx enthusiast, I'm not sure what will. I'm getting goose bumps as I write this bc this may be the season...."Where Legends Are Made".... I'll end this post with this pretty map....Nov 18th time stamp... Tom, I love your enthusiasm, passion and knowledge keep it coming my friend! Hard to believe but last year we received our first snow in the middle of the month, October 14th. That storm next weekend would be right around that time again and a few runs had snow for our area. Interesting times ahead and looking forward to seeing how the next LRC plays out. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 4, 2019 Report Share Posted October 4, 2019 Tom, I love your enthusiasm, passion and knowledge keep it coming my friend! Hard to believe but last year we received our first snow in the middle of the month, October 14th. That storm next weekend would be right around that time again and a few runs had snow for our area. Interesting times ahead and looking forward to seeing how the next LRC plays out. I 2nd this! Cheers! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 5, 2019 Report Share Posted October 5, 2019 Cannot wait to see the last Winter Outlook in November. Should be interesting as more info will have been collected. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 5, 2019 Report Share Posted October 5, 2019 Here's the clincher for me. Look at that warm pool sitting right under 180°. It needs to quit propagating east, but if you're wondering why the SER will have some weaknesses in it this winter. Bingo. Atmosphere has read as a Modoki at times for the last 3 months also. This is wonderful. Absolutely perfect. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 Apparently rainy Septembers are a positive signal for a snowy winter in WMI. From Grand Rapids TV station Met: https://www.woodtv.com/bills-blog-2/thoughts-on-the-winter-forecast/ (I feel vindicated now that a professional has confirmed my comments that the pattern until 2 days ago looked pretty much like the same ol same ol from last winter) Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 Nice visual comparison of the relative early/lateness of colors around Caribou, Maine. Seems to correlate well with what went on here too. 2013 was the earliest, while 2019 is ahead of avg of these seasons. 4 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 NWS Marquette deployed their snow stake Friday (just in case).. 4 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 Look at these 3 lows diving right at, over Hawaii and hanging out over and due S/SE of the Aleutians. Doesn't mean much for me in October, and it shouldn't, but in late November and December it means the southern branch will be alive and kicking. The N. Hemisphere 500 pattern is like something out of a textbook on how to make winter awesome. #MakingWinterGreatAgain 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 Look at these 3 lows diving right at, over Hawaii and hanging out over and due S/SE of the Aleutians. Doesn't mean much for me in October, and it shouldn't, but in late November and December it means the southern branch will be alive and kicking. The N. Hemisphere 500 pattern is like something out of a textbook on how to make winter awesome. gfs_z500a_npac_14.pnggfs_z500a_npac_48.pnggfs_z500a_npac_65.png #MakingWinterGreatAgain Whoa - is that an OHV storm I see in that image out in La-La range?? That scenario playing out would go a long way towards cementing the positive signs on the new LRC. Basically, need something like this from 2007. Stout LP system riding thru OH https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_stnplot_20071122.html Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 Look at these 3 lows diving right at, over Hawaii and hanging out over and due S/SE of the Aleutians. Doesn't mean much for me in October, and it shouldn't, but in late November and December it means the southern branch will be alive and kicking. The N. Hemisphere 500 pattern is like something out of a textbook on how to make winter awesome. gfs_z500a_npac_14.pnggfs_z500a_npac_48.pnggfs_z500a_npac_65.png #MakingWinterGreatAgainI like this map! 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 One more hot day! 96* then front moves through tonight with some showers and high in the 80's. 2 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 https://youtu.be/RUnBRNfpKH0 It would be a lot easier understanding who's going to get what, if these people forecasting the Winter Outlook would just be simple and to the point, instead of trying to cover everyone in extreme Winter weather with different wording and eventually by the end of Winter, they are proven correct, or very near to that mark. If they are wrong, then, they should deal w it and admit it. Thats a real pro. I.E., its obvious that the state of FL will have a warm, dry or wet Winter, so, why point out the obvious, or the coast of Cali (not speaking for the mountains that is). Another I.E., they have the Gl's regions under "Arctic Invasions", while the upper midwest is "Frigid w Clippers" and so on....... I mean, really!!! C'mon now. You just have to laugh at these outlooks I guess. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 Whoa - is that an OHV storm I see in that image out in La-La range?? That scenario playing out would go a long way towards cementing the positive signs on the new LRC. Basically, need something like this from 2007. Stout LP system riding thru OH https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_stnplot_20071122.htmlI thought you may like that one buddy. Like you said, LaLa range, BUT, it is a legit atmospheric progression to what I've written about... In other words, it has merit. Obviously the locations and placements are subject to variance, given the range. Let's see this puppy in 8 weeks. How 'boutit? I like that trailing energy on the back of that one as well. Southern branch gets woke up in that scenario and you get phasing monsters down the road. Aka, the 30-hour snowstorm here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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